Study on Predictability of Seasonal Forecast by a Climate Model

• Project/Area Number: 22840016
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
• Research Institution: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• Principal Investigator: IMADA Yukiko (KANAMARU Yukiko) 東京工業大学, 大学院・情報理工学研究科, 産学官連携研究員 (50582855)
• Project Period (FY): 2010 – 2011
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2011)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,717,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,090,000、Indirect Cost: ¥627,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,196,000 (Direct Cost: ¥920,000、Indirect Cost: ¥276,000); Fiscal Year 2010: ¥1,521,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,170,000、Indirect Cost: ¥351,000)
• Keywords: 季節予報 / 異常気象予測 / ENSO / GCM(気候モデル) / 予測可能性

Research Abstract

Toward the forecast of recent extreme climate events, I constructed the seasonal prediction system with the atmosphere and ocean general circulation model MIROC including an initialization(assimilation) system. The skill of ensemble hindcast for the past 30 years was comparable to globally-advanced climate models. In addition, two kinds of downscaling methods were formulated to apply regional extreme events.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] An overview of decadal climate Predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC (2013)
  • Author(s): Chikamoto, T., M. Kimoto, M. Ishii, T. Mochizuki, T. T. Sakamoto, H. Tatebe, Y. Komuro, M. Watanabe, T. Nozawa, H. Shiogama, M. Mori, S. Yasunaka, Y. Imada
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 40 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1201-1222
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Parameterization of tropical instability waves and examination of their impact on ENSO characteristics (2012)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: (印刷中)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 特異値分解解析を用いた統計的ダウンスケーリングによる季節予測-インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2012)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子、木本昌秀、鼎信次郎
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) Volume: Vol.68
  • NAID: 130004557864
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of atmospheric mean state on tropical instability wave activity (2012)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada, Masahide Kimoto, and Xianyan Chen
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: Vol.25 Pages: 2341-2355
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of atmospheric mean state on tropical instability wave activity (2012)
  • Author(s): Imada. Y., M.Kimoto, X.Chen
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 25(受理2011年9月) Issue: 7 Pages: 2341-2355
  • DOI: 10.1175/2011jcli4244.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Parameterization of tropical instability waves and examination of their impact on ENSO characteristics (2012)
  • Author(s): Imada, Y., M.Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: (受理2012年1月)(印刷中) Issue: 13 Pages: 4568-4581
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00233.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 特異値分解解析を用いた統計的ダウンスケーリングによる季節予測-インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2012)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子, 木本昌秀, 鼎信次郎
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B1(水工学) Volume: Vol.68
  • NAID: 130004557864
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] MIROC4-a new high-resolution atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model (2012)
  • Author(s): T.T.Sakamoto, Y.Komuro, T.Nishimura, M.Ishii, H.Tatebe, H.Shiogama, A.Hasegawa, T.Toyoda, M.Mori, T.Suzuki, Y.Imada,T.Nozawa, K.Takata, T.Mochizuki, K.Ogochi, S.Emori, H.Hasumi, M.Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Special issue on the recent development on climate models and future climate projections Volume: (掲載確定)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Predictability of a stepwise shift in Pacific climate during the late 1990s in hindcast experiments by MIROC. JMSJ Special issue on the recent development on climate models and future climate projections (2012)
  • Author(s): Chikamoto, Y., M.Kimoto, M.Ishii, M.Watanabe, T.Nozawa, T.Mochizuki, H.Tatebe, T.Sakamoto, Y.Komuro, H.Shiogama, M.Mori, S.Yasunaka, Y.Imada, H.Koyama, M.Nozu, F.-F.Jin
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Special issue on the recent development on climate models and future climate projections Volume: (掲載確定)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Convective control of ENSO simulated in MIROC (2011)
  • Author(s): Watanabe, M., M.Chikira, Y.Imada, M.Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: Vol.24 Pages: 543-562
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of the assimilation of sea ice concentration data on an atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled simulation of the Arctic Ocean climate (2011)
  • Author(s): Toyoda, T., T.Awaji, N.Sugiura, S.Masuda, H.Igarashi, Y.Sasaki, Y.Hiyoshi, Y.Ishikawa, T.Mochizuki, T.Sakamoto, H.Tatebe, Y.Komuro, T.Suzuki, T.Nishimura, M.Mori, Y.Chikamoto, S.Yasunaka, Y.Imada. M.Arai, M.Watanabe, H.Shiogama, T.Nozawa, A.Hasegawa, M.Ishii, M.Kimoto
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: Vol.7 Pages: 37-40
  • NAID: 130004940927
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Seasonal climate predictability by the latest version of MIROC5 : Challenge to a seamless prediction system (2012)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: International Workshop on Climate Change Projection and High Performance Computing
  • Place of Presentation: Maui(HI)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-15
• [Presentation] Seasonal climate predictability by the latest version of MIROC5 : Challenge to a seamless prediction system (2012)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: International Workshop on Climate Change Projection and High Performance Computing
  • Place of Presentation: The Westin Maui Resort & Spa (Maui, HI)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-15
• [Presentation] 特異値分解解析を用いた統計的ダウンスケーリングによる季節予測-インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2012)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 第56回水工学講演会
  • Place of Presentation: 愛媛大学(愛媛)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-08
• [Presentation] 特異値分解解析を用いた統計的ダウンスケーリングによる季節予測・インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2012)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 第56回水工学講演会
  • Place of Presentation: 愛媛大学(愛媛)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-08
• [Presentation] 特異値分解解析(SVD)を用いたAOGCM季節予測の統計的ダウンスケーリング-インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2011)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学(愛知)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-18
• [Presentation] 特異値分解解析(SVD)を用いたAOGCM季節予測の統計的ダウンスケーリング-インドシナ半島の秋季の降水の予測可能性- (2011)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 第8回「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学防災研究所(京都・宇治)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-09
• [Presentation] Team MIROC : Multidecadal modulation of tropical instability wave activity during the last few decades (2011)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: WCRP OSC Climate Research in Service to Society
  • Place of Presentation: Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (Denver, CO)
• [Presentation] Improvement to ENSO in AOGCM by introducing a new parameterization of Tropical Instability Waves (2010)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: CLIVAR/ENSO workshop
  • Place of Presentation: IPSL(Paris)
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-19
• [Presentation] Improvement to ENSO in AOGCM by introducing a new parameterization of Tropical Instability Waves (2010)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: CLIVAR/ENSO workshop
  • Place of Presentation: IPSL (Paris)
  • Year and Date: 2010-11-19
• [Presentation] 高解像度大気海洋結合モデルによって再現された北極振動に対するエルニーニョ及び成層圏突然昇温の関わり (2010)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2010秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-27
• [Presentation] 高解像度大気海洋結合モデルによって再現された北極振動に対するエルニーニョ及び成層圏突然昇温の関わり (2010)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-27
• [Presentation] 太平洋の熱帯不安定波がENSOに与える影響 (2010)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都テルサ(京都)
  • Year and Date: 2010-10-27
• [Presentation] MIROC4によって再現された北極振動に対するエルニーニョ及び成層圏突然昇温の関わり(速報) (2010)
  • Author(s): 今田由紀子
  • Organizer: 研究会「長期予報と大気大循環」
  • Place of Presentation: 気象庁(東京・大手町)
  • Year and Date: 2010-09-28
• [Presentation] ENSO amplitude change in doubled CO2 experiments evaluated by the temperature variance equation (2010)
  • Author(s): Yukiko Imada
  • Organizer: European Geosciences Union 2011
  • Place of Presentation: Vienna International Centre (Vienna)
  • Year and Date: 2010-04-05