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The Impact of US - China Trade War on Vietnam

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22K01456
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
Research InstitutionNational Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Principal Investigator

WIE Dainn  政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (50600649)

Project Period (FY) 2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywordstrade war / trade diversion / export / productivity / informality / FDI / trade competition / firm productivity / informal employment / Foreign direct
Outline of Research at the Start

The project aims to establish an understanding of the US-China trade war in the context of Vietnam, a developing country having a competitive relationship with China for export to the United States. We plan to examine the impact of the trade war on Vietnam in three aspects: trade flow, firms, and the labor market. The project intends to contribute to the literature by providing the first empirical evidence of the trade war on Vietnam in a timely fashion.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

In FY2023, our project focused on refining our research efforts, resulting in the production of two working papers. For each paper, we enhanced the quality of our data, conducted robustness tests, and strengthened our arguments and claims.

We investigated the impact of the US-China trade war on Vietnam, analyzing how Vietnamese firms benefited and its effects on productivity and informal labor. We found that the trade war increased Vietnam’s exports to the US, not solely due to re-routing Chinese products. These opportunities significantly boosted firms’ productivity and reduced informal labor.

We presented our findings at an international conference and submitted articles to journals. Currently, we are in the process of revising our manuscripts based on the feedback received from these journals' reviewers.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

The project progressed smoothly, benefiting from generous funding, dedicated and skilled team members, and a supportive academic environment for all involved.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

Submitting to and ultimately publishing in economics journals is a time-consuming process, often spanning several years. We are committed to diligently addressing reviewers' comments and revising our work to meet academic standards for publication. Additionally, we will continue to disseminate our findings by presenting at international conferences.

Report

(2 results)
  • 2023 Research-status Report
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (3 results)

All 2023 Other

All Presentation (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Invited: 1 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Presentation] Fishing in Troubled Water:The Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam’s Export and Firms2023

    • Author(s)
      Dainn Wie
    • Organizer
      The Africa Meeting of the Econometric Society
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Remarks] Discussion Paper 1

    • URL

      https://doi.org/10.24545/0002000002

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Discussion Paper 2

    • URL

      https://doi.org/10.24545/0002000007

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2022-04-19   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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