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Predicting river discharge in mountainous river basins during heavy rain events using seismic noise data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22K03742
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 17030:Human geosciences-related
Research InstitutionNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention

Principal Investigator

P.C. Shakti  国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, 水・土砂防災研究部門, 主任専門研究員 (60863553)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 澤崎 郁  国立研究開発法人防災科学技術研究所, 地震津波火山ネットワークセンター, 主任専門研究員 (30707170)
Project Period (FY) 2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
KeywordsRiver discharge / Noise data / Hi-net / Flow estimation / Flood events / Hydrological simulation / River basins / Flood risk / Seismic noise / hydrological station / Flood risk management / Discharge prediction
Outline of Research at the Start

Several mountainous river basins in Japan do not have a consistent hydrological record. On the other hand, there are a number of available seismic stations in these mountainous regions. They can detect seismic noise excited by the nearby river flow and it is understood that the noise power has a high correlation with discharge. In this research, we aim to establish a method to predict the flow rate using seismic noise data distributed in mountainous river basins in Japan, which will provide important information for the proper management of flood disaster events in Japan.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The objective of this study is to use seismic data to estimate river discharge, particularly during floods in mountainous river basins, integrating the disciplines of Hydrology and Seismology. After reviewing Hi-net noise observations and the availability of hydrological data, we selected certain river basins for analysis. In these basins, we conducted hydrological simulations to analyze flood dynamics and investigated correlations between Hi-net noise and river flow data during flood events. Additionally, we evaluated how seismic noise data across different frequency ranges correlated with the simulated discharge data during floods.
Our findings indicate that a strong correlation holds significance in mountainous regions characterized by steep riverbed slope. Furthermore, we observed that this correlation is particularly distinct within the 1-2 Hz frequency range. This phenomenon occurs because microseisms contaminate noise below 1 Hz, while noise energy above 2 Hz undergoes significant attenuation during propagation, thereby limiting its long-distance propagation. We continued our investigation into the link between seismic data and river flow, thereby expanding our understanding of these interactions.
Portions of this research were presented at national and international conferences, published in journals articles/proceedings. Part of this study was also highlighted in the Science Japan magazine, published by the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), specifically within the section on 'International Brain Circulation and Japan's initiatives to foster it.'

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

In this study, we have analyzed observed seismic noise data (Hi-net) and simulated river discharge to reach our objectives. Discovering key insights from the analysis of these diverse data sets, each serving different purposes and disciplines, proved both challenging and fascinating. We processed Hi-net data from various stations across different river basins for historical events and conducted hydrological simulations to extract river discharge data for those events in the selected basins. We have regularly been sharing and presenting our results with national and international academic societies.
We are in the time line of projects. However, publishing our all results with summarizing them may takes slightly long time depending up on the processing time of journal types. Util the date, we have not experienced any difficulties to carry on our research. Currently, we are analyzing long-term Hi-net and simulated river discharge data across various stations in several mountainous river basins. We anticipate finalizing our results later this year, as scheduled in our project timeline.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

The objective of this study is to demonstrate how seismic data can be used to estimate river discharge, with a particular focus on flood conditions in mountainous river basins. This research is based on the interdisciplinary subjects i.e., Hydrology and Seismology. We conducted hydrological simulations of several river basins in Japan, considering various flood scenarios. A comparative analysis was performed between the simulated river discharge and nearby Hi-net data across different frequency ranges in mountainous river basins. We will continue to study the modeling and verification of the physical mechanism of seismic noise and river discharge.
Based on the results we obtained in 2023 fiscal year; we are currently conducting a long-term analysis to predict river flow in mountainous river basins by correlating noise data with simulated river discharge. We aim to develop a suitable empirical relationship at some seismic stations to predict regular discharge time series. We anticipate establishing a strong correlation between Hi-net data and simulated river discharge at certain stations of mountainous river basins. Our research is progressing according to plan, and we intend to submit our research outcomes to peer-reviewed journals and present them at national/international conferences this year.

Report

(2 results)
  • 2023 Research-status Report
  • 2022 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (16 results)

All 2023 2022 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Open Access: 4 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results) Presentation (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 7 results,  Invited: 2 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Estimation of river discharge using NIED Hi-net data during flooding event: a case study for Typhoon Hagibis, 20192023

    • Author(s)
      PC Shakti、Sawazaki Kaoru
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of Annual Conference

      Volume: 36 Issue: 0 Pages: 412

    • DOI

      10.11520/jshwr.36.0_412

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Statistical analysis of hydrograph and Hi-net seismic noise power during the 2019 Typhoon Hagibis case2023

    • Author(s)
      澤崎 郁、PC Shakti
    • Journal Title

      Proceeding of Annual Conference

      Volume: 36 Issue: 0 Pages: 402

    • DOI

      10.11520/jshwr.36.0_402

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Developing Flood Risk Zones during an Extreme Rain Event from the Perspective of Social Insurance Management2023

    • Author(s)
      P. C. Shakti、Hirano Kohin、Iwanami Koyuru
    • Journal Title

      Sustainability

      Volume: 15 Issue: 6 Pages: 4909-4909

    • DOI

      10.3390/su15064909

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Predicting and managing flood risks from extreme rain events in Japan2023

    • Author(s)
      P. C. Shakti
    • Journal Title

      Research Outreach

      Volume: 134 Issue: 135 Pages: 52-57

    • DOI

      10.32907/ro-135-4237348290

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Presentation] Estimating river discharge in mountainous river basins using high-sensitivity seismometers during extreme rain events2023

    • Author(s)
      PC Shakti、Sawazaki Kaoru
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Monitoring river flow utilizing high-sensitivity seismometers during catastrophic flood events2023

    • Author(s)
      PC Shakti
    • Organizer
      Tsukuba Conference
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Estimation of river discharge using NIED Hi-net data during flooding event: a case study for Typhoon Hagibis, 20192023

    • Author(s)
      PC Shakti、Sawazaki Kaoru
    • Organizer
      Annual conference of Japan society of hydrology and water resources
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 令和元年東日本台風時の水位記録とHi-net地震計ノイズ記録の統計解析2023

    • Author(s)
      澤崎 郁、PC Shakti
    • Organizer
      Annual conference of Japan society of hydrology and water resources
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The relationships between seismic noise energy excited by a streamflow and water level revealed from spectral analysis of Hi-net seismograms2023

    • Author(s)
      Sawazaki Kaoru、PC Shakti
    • Organizer
      IUGG General Assembly
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] PC Shakti PC、Hirano Kohin、Iizuka Satoshi2023

    • Author(s)
      Quick Exposure Assessment of Flood Inundation during Extreme Rain Events
    • Organizer
      Esri User Conference
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An approach for predicting river discharge during heavy rain events using seismic noise data2023

    • Author(s)
      P. C. Shakti、Sawazaki Kaoru
    • Organizer
      The 2nd Workshop between National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction of Taiwan (NCDR) and National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED)
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Flood inundation mapping of river basins during extreme rain events2023

    • Author(s)
      P. C. Shakti PC、Hirano Kohin 、Iizuka Satoshi
    • Organizer
      The 9th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM9)
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] An approach for predicting river discharge during heavy rain events using seismic noise data in ungauged mountainous river basins2022

    • Author(s)
      P. C. Shakti、Sawazaki Kaoru
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall Meeting
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Reproduction of water-level during a flood event using the streamflow noise recorded by Hi-net2022

    • Author(s)
      Sawazaki Kaoru、P. C. Shakti
    • Organizer
      JpGU Meeting
    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Remarks] Contributing to water-disaster..

    • URL

      https://sj.jst.go.jp/interviewsandopinions/2023/c1102-01c.html

    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] NIED INTEGRATED REPORT 2021

    • URL

      https://www.bosai.go.jp/e/sp/about/nbrruo0000000lxk-att/IR2021_01EN.pdf

    • Related Report
      2022 Research-status Report

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Published: 2022-04-19   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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