| Project/Area Number |
22K13403
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
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| Research Institution | Osaka University of Economics and Law (2023)
Doshisha University (2022) |
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Principal Investigator |
朱 浩良 大阪経済法科大学, 経済学部, 助教 (10906605)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2022-04-01 – 2025-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
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| Keywords | Trade Agreements / Trade agreements / Trade efficiency / global value chains / trade agreements / efficiency |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The development of global value chains (GVCs) has changed the landscape of global production patterns. Additionally, the increasing number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has contributed to the prevalence of GVCs. This study aims to examine the trade efficiency in GVC participation and quantify the impacts of RTAs on trade efficiency. This study will use a stochastic gravity model to estimate the efficiency of trade and GVC participation measured by value-added content in trade. The results show how the establishment of RTAs affects the efficiency of trade and GVC participation.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
This study aims to analyze trade efficiency within the framework of Global Value Chains (GVC) participation and assess the impact of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) on this efficiency. Using a stochastic gravity model, the research will estimate trade efficiency by examining the gap between actual and potential trade linkages in a frictionless world. Additionally, it explores how the formation of RTAs, influenced by countries’ involvement in GVCs, impacts trade efficiency. The findings are expected to enhance understanding of the prospects for further trade integration.
The initial phase of the research has successfully assessed trade efficiency in East Asia and the effect of RTAs thereon. The study also examines the relationship between GVC participation and the likelihood of countries entering into RTAs, proposing that the extent of GVC involvement can predict RTA formation. Survival analysis is used to identify factors that influence the likelihood of two countries initiating a trade agreement.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
3: Progress in research has been slightly delayed.
Reason
Presentation:
(1) “Examining the Economic Determinants of Deep Trade Agreements: A Discrete-Time Survival Analysis” November 2023, The 22nd International Conference of the Japan Economic Policy Association, Ritsumeikan University Osaka Ibaraki Campus, Japan.
(2) 「深化した貿易協定の経済的決定要因の検証： 離散型生存時間分析」日本経済政策学会2023年度関西部会大会、2024年3月16日。
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
I will continue to present and refine results from the past year. The focus will now shift to a deeper exploration of trade agreements through the concept of Deep Trade Agreements. Building on earlier analyses, this phase aims to uncover the importance of specific provisions within these agreements. Recent developments in trade agreements have introduced clauses related to non-trade issues, such as environmental regulations and capital movement. This broadening of scope highlights the increasing depth and scope of RTAs across various provisions. The study will categorize policy areas within RTAs to reflect their depth and breadth, identify provisions that enhance trade efficiency, and analyze how different factors affect the probability of two countries forming an RTA across varied policy areas.
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