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A modeling approach for accurately predicting land use changes brought by human decisions

Research Project

Project/Area Number 22KJ1856
Project/Area Number (Other) 22J14358 (2022)
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Fellows

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund (2023)
Single-year Grants (2022)
Section国内
Review Section Basic Section 04020:Human geography-related
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

Estacio Ian  京都大学, 地球環境学舎, 特別研究員(DC2)

Project Period (FY) 2023-03-08 – 2024-03-31
Project Status Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,700,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥800,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥900,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000)
KeywordsAgricultural abandonment / Socio-ecological systems / Regression modeling / Agent-based modeling / World heritage site / GIS / Land cover change / Land-use simulation / Social-ecological system / Agent-based model / Statistical model / Logistic regression
Outline of Research at the Start

The outline of the research revolves around the utilization of agent-based modeling to propose a modeling framework for simulating the feedback between land cover change and human actions. Research synthesis based on gathered results will also be utilized to propose the framework.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

The research project has three main achievements.

First, a statistical model was developed that identifies the spatial and non-spatial drivers of land use/land cover change. This model was published in the International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. Second, an agent-based model was developed that simulates the impacts of policies on agricultural lands. Simulations showed that the provision of aid in restoring eroded terraces is most effective in mitigating agricultural abandonment. Lastly, a modeling framework called ATLEA was developed for simulating the feedback loop between land use changes and non-spatial actors in a socio-ecological system. The ATLEA framework has been accepted for publication in the Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences.

Report

(2 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2024 2023

All Journal Article (1 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results) Book (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A statistical model of land use/cover change integrating logistic and linear models: An application to agricultural abandonment2023

    • Author(s)
      Estacio Ian, Sianipar Corinthias P.M., Onitsuka Kenichiro, Basu Mrittika, Hoshino Satoshi
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation

      Volume: 120 Pages: 103339-103339

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jag.2023.103339

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report 2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Simulating the future through observations of the past: Concretizing the role of Geosimulation in the Geoinformatics discipline2023

    • Author(s)
      Estacio Ian、Hoshino Satoshi
    • Organizer
      13th International Symposium on Digital Earth
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Modeling the feedback loop between land use change and non-spatial actors: The ATLEA framework2023

    • Author(s)
      Estacio Ian, Onitsuka Kenichiro, Hoshino Satoshi
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Environmental Science and Engineering
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Book] Proceedings of the 2023 13th International Conference on Environment Science and Engineering (ICESE 2023) (Chapter name: Modeling the feedback loop between land use change and non-spatial actors: The ATLEA framework)2024

    • Author(s)
      Estacio Ian、Onitsuka Kenichiro、Hoshino Satoshi
    • Publisher
      Springer
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2022-04-28   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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