• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

Understanding and constraining the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23310014
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Environmental dynamic analysis
Research InstitutionNational Institute for Environmental Studies

Principal Investigator

SHIOGAMA Hideo  独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) WATANABE Masahiro  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497)
OGURA Tomoo  独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (10370264)
YOKOHATA Tokuta  独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (20391170)
Project Period (FY) 2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥19,630,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,530,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥8,060,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,860,000)
Keywords気候変動
Research Abstract

Climate sensitivity (CS), which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, has large uncertainties. In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 climate model to investigate the parametric uncertainty of CS. The shortwave cloud feedback (SWcld) dominated the variations in CS. To explore both the parametric and structural uncertainties of CS, we also proposed the multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE). We used eight multi-physics ensemble (MPE) models in which the MIROC5 physics schemes were replaced by those of MIROC3. MPMPE consisted of PPE for each MPE model. Coupling between low- and mid-level clouds controlled the differences in the parametric spread of SWcld among the MPE models.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (49 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011

All Journal Article (17 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 17 results) Presentation (32 results) (of which Invited: 3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Importance of instantaneous radiativeforcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment2014

    • Author(s)
      Tomoo Ogura, MarkJ.Webb, Masahiro Watanabe,HugoLambert,YokoTsushima, Miho Sekiguchi
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: (in press)

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE) : A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity2014

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata and Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 15 Pages: 97-102

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment2014

    • Author(s)
      Tomoo Ogura, Mark J. Webb, Masahiro Watanabe, Hugo Lambert, Yoko Tsushima, Miho Sekiguchi
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1409-1421

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-013-1955-x

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE): A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity2014

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata and Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 2 Pages: 97-102

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl2.472

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the linear additivity of climate forcing-response relationships at global and continental scales2013

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Daithi A. Stone, Tatsuya Nagashima, Toru Nozawa and Seita Emori
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Climatology

      Volume: 33 Pages: 2542-2550

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2 : its timescale and the role of land-sea contrast2013

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae and Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 41 Pages: 3007-3024

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations2013

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Demoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Youichi Kamae
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett.

      Volume: 40 Pages: 1-6

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] An Event Attribution of the 2010 Drought in the South Amazon Region using the MIROC5 Model2013

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 14 Issue: 3 Pages: 170-175

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl2.435

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Event Attribution of the August 2010 Russian Heat Wave2013

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      SOLA

      Volume: 9 Issue: 0 Pages: 65-68

    • DOI

      10.2151/sola.2013-015

    • NAID

      130004940975

    • ISSN
      1349-6476
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land?sea contrast2013

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae and Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 41 Issue: 11-12 Pages: 3007-3024

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-012-1555-1

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations2013

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Demoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Youichi Kamae
    • Journal Title

      GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

      Volume: 40 Issue: 10 Pages: 1-6

    • DOI

      10.1002/grl.50474

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perturbed Physics Ensemble using the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections : Experimental Design and Results2012

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O'ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 39 (12) Pages: 3041-3056

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud Shortwave Feedback in GCMs2012

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Youichi Kamae, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Annan JD, Hargreaves JC, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      J Climate

      Volume: 25 Pages: 5416-5431

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models2012

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae, Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Geophys.Res.Lett.

      Volume: 39

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity2012

    • Author(s)
      Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M.,Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J.D.,Hargreaves, J.C., Abe, M. Kamae, Y., O'ishi, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kimoto, M.
    • Journal Title

      CLIMATE DYNAMICS

      Volume: 39 Issue: 12 Pages: 3041-3056

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud Shortwave Feedback in GCMs2012

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 25 Issue: 15 Pages: 5416-5431

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-11-00564.1

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models2012

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 39 Issue: 23

    • DOI

      10.1029/2012gl054275

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Event attribution studies from Asia. 1st General Assembly of EU FP7 ・ EUCLEIA (EUropean, CLimate and weather Events : Interpretation and Attribution)2014

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, R. Kartika Lestari, Masahide Kimoto, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii
    • Organizer
      ETH Zurich
    • Place of Presentation
      Keynote perspectives
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Event attribution studies from Asia2014

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, R. Kartika Lestari, Masahide Kimoto, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii
    • Organizer
      1st General Assembly of EU FP7・EUCLEIA (EUropean, CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution)
    • Place of Presentation
      ETH Zurich, Switzerland
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] On the parametric uncertainty of the MIROC5 radiation bias2013

    • Author(s)
      Tomoo Ogura, Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D. Annan , and Julia C. Hargreaves
    • Organizer
      4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models
    • Place of Presentation
      Exeter, UK
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] フラックス調節無しでドリフトしない大気海洋結合モデル物理アンサンブル実験のデザイン2012

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横 畠 徳 太 , James D Annan3, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一,木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-04
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity2012

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Universite Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Paris, France
    • Year and Date
      2012-05-30
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      横畠徳太
    • Organizer
      Planet Under Pressure 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      Excel (London, UK)
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-26
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-07
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)Model Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-07
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      横畠徳太
    • Organizer
      WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-05
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis M., Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Hargreaves J.C.
    • Organizer
      Planet Under Pressure 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      London, UK.
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, Rei Nobui, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis, Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori , Hargreaves J.C.
    • Organizer
      WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
    • Place of Presentation
      Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity2012

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama
    • Organizer
      EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing to tropospheric adjustment2012

    • Author(s)
      Tomoo Ogura
    • Organizer
      EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候モデルアンサンブルの自由度と信頼性評価2012

    • Author(s)
      横畠徳太
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] マルチ気候モデルおよび物理パラメータアンサンブルの信頼性評価2012

    • Author(s)
      横畠徳太
    • Organizer
      平成24年度京都大学防災研究所一般研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      宇治
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles2011

    • Author(s)
      横畠徳太
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Center (San Francisco, USA)(Invited)
    • Year and Date
      2011-12-06
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2011年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学(愛知県)
    • Year and Date
      2011-11-16
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学防災研究所(京都府)
    • Year and Date
      2011-11-09
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies2011

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (Denver, USA)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-27
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (Denver, USA)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-26
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Can detuning ensembles provide insights into the projection uncertainty and performance of RCM?2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      Third international workshop on down-scaling
    • Place of Presentation
      つくば国際会議場(茨城県)(Invited)
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-19
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      11th European Meteorological Society/10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology
    • Place of Presentation
      Seminaris CampusHotel Berlin (Berlin, Germany)
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-13
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2011年度春期大会
    • Place of Presentation
      国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都)
    • Year and Date
      2011-05-21
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles2011

    • Author(s)
      Tokuta Yokohata, Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Seita Emori, and Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2011年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
    • Place of Presentation
      宇治
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Denver
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies2011

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Seita Emori, and Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
    • Place of Presentation
      Denver
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Can detuning ensembles provide insights into the projection uncertainty and performance of RCM?2011

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama
    • Organizer
      Third international workshop on down-scaling
    • Place of Presentation
      Tsukuba
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM2011

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
    • Organizer
      11th European Meteorological Society /10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin,Germany
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性2011

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩, 吉森正和, 小倉知夫, 横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2011年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2011-04-06   Modified: 2019-07-29  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi