Understanding and constraining the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity

• Project/Area Number: 23310014
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Environmental dynamic analysis
• Research Institution: National Institute for Environmental Studies
• Principal Investigator: SHIOGAMA Hideo 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): WATANABE Masahiro 東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497) ; OGURA Tomoo 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (10370264) ; YOKOHATA Tokuta 独立行政法人国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (20391170)
• Project Period (FY): 2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
• Budget Amount: ¥19,630,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,530,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥6,240,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,440,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥8,060,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,860,000)
• Keywords: 気候変動

Research Abstract

Climate sensitivity (CS), which is defined as the global mean surface air temperature response to a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, has large uncertainties. In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 climate model to investigate the parametric uncertainty of CS. The shortwave cloud feedback (SWcld) dominated the variations in CS. To explore both the parametric and structural uncertainties of CS, we also proposed the multi-parameter multi-physics ensemble (MPMPE). We used eight multi-physics ensemble (MPE) models in which the MIROC5 physics schemes were replaced by those of MIROC3. MPMPE consisted of PPE for each MPE model. Coupling between low- and mid-level clouds controlled the differences in the parametric spread of SWcld among the MPE models.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Importance of instantaneous radiativeforcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment (2014)
  • Author(s): Tomoo Ogura, MarkJ.Webb, Masahiro Watanabe,HugoLambert,YokoTsushima, Miho Sekiguchi
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: (in press)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE) : A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Science Letters Volume: 15 Pages: 97-102
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment (2014)
  • Author(s): Tomoo Ogura, Mark J. Webb, Masahiro Watanabe, Hugo Lambert, Yoko Tsushima, Miho Sekiguchi
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1409-1421
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1955-x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE): A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Science Letters Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 2 Pages: 97-102
  • DOI: 10.1002/asl2.472
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] On the linear additivity of climate forcing-response relationships at global and continental scales (2013)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Daithi A. Stone, Tatsuya Nagashima, Toru Nozawa and Seita Emori
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Climatology Volume: 33 Pages: 2542-2550
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2 : its timescale and the role of land-sea contrast (2013)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae and Masahiro Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 41 Pages: 3007-3024
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations (2013)
  • Author(s): Satoru Demoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Youichi Kamae
  • Journal Title: Geophys.Res.Lett. Volume: 40 Pages: 1-6
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An Event Attribution of the 2010 Drought in the South Amazon Region using the MIROC5 Model (2013)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Science Letters Volume: 14 Issue: 3 Pages: 170-175
  • DOI: 10.1002/asl2.435
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Event Attribution of the August 2010 Russian Heat Wave (2013)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, Masayoshi Ishii and Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 9 Issue: 0 Pages: 65-68
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2013-015
  • NAID: 130004940975
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land?sea contrast (2013)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae and Masahiro Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 41 Issue: 11-12 Pages: 3007-3024
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1555-1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations (2013)
  • Author(s): Satoru Demoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Youichi Kamae
  • Journal Title: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS Volume: 40 Issue: 10 Pages: 1-6
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50474
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Perturbed Physics Ensemble using the MIROC5 Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM without Flux Corrections : Experimental Design and Results (2012)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Youichi Kamae, Ryouta O'ishi, Rei Nobui, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: Climate Dynamics Volume: 39 (12) Pages: 3041-3056
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud Shortwave Feedback in GCMs (2012)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Youichi Kamae, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Annan JD, Hargreaves JC, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto
  • Journal Title: J Climate Volume: 25 Pages: 5416-5431
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models (2012)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae, Masahiro Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Geophys.Res.Lett. Volume: 39
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (2012)
  • Author(s): Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M.,Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J.D.,Hargreaves, J.C., Abe, M. Kamae, Y., O'ishi, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kimoto, M.
  • Journal Title: CLIMATE DYNAMICS Volume: 39 Issue: 12 Pages: 3041-3056
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud Shortwave Feedback in GCMs (2012)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Watanabe
  • Journal Title: Journal of Climate Volume: 25 Issue: 15 Pages: 5416-5431
  • DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00564.1
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models (2012)
  • Author(s): Youichi Kamae
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 39 Issue: 23
  • DOI: 10.1029/2012gl054275
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Event attribution studies from Asia. 1st General Assembly of EU FP7 ・ EUCLEIA (EUropean, CLimate and weather Events : Interpretation and Attribution) (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, R. Kartika Lestari, Masahide Kimoto, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii
  • Organizer: ETH Zurich
  • Place of Presentation: Keynote perspectives
• [Presentation] Event attribution studies from Asia (2014)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Yukiko Imada, Masato Mori, R. Kartika Lestari, Masahide Kimoto, Youichi Kamae, Masayoshi Ishii
  • Organizer: 1st General Assembly of EU FP7・EUCLEIA (EUropean, CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution)
  • Place of Presentation: ETH Zurich, Switzerland
  • Invited
• [Presentation] On the parametric uncertainty of the MIROC5 radiation bias (2013)
  • Author(s): Tomoo Ogura, Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D. Annan , and Julia C. Hargreaves
  • Organizer: 4th WGNE workshop on systematic errors in weather and climate models
  • Place of Presentation: Exeter, UK
• [Presentation] フラックス調節無しでドリフトしない大気海洋結合モデル物理アンサンブル実験のデザイン (2012)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横 畠 徳 太 , James D Annan3, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一,木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会 2012年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
  • Year and Date: 2012-10-04
• [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity (2012)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Universite Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), Paris, France
  • Year and Date: 2012-05-30
• [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): 横畠徳太
  • Organizer: Planet Under Pressure 2012
  • Place of Presentation: Excel (London, UK)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-26
• [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-07
• [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)Model Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-07
• [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): 横畠徳太
  • Organizer: WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Jefferson Hall of the East West Center (Honolulu, USA)
  • Year and Date: 2012-03-05
• [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis M., Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori, Hargreaves J.C.
  • Organizer: Planet Under Pressure 2012
  • Place of Presentation: London, UK.
• [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of climate sensitivity based on CMIP3/5 and MIROC ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tokuta Yokohata, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, Youichi Kamae, Rei Nobui, James Annan, Julia Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
• [Presentation] Importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles (2012)
  • Author(s): Tokuta Yokohata, Annan J.D., Collins M., Jackson C.S., Tobis, Webb M.J., Hideo Shiogama, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Masahiro Watanabe, Masakazu Yoshimori , Hargreaves J.C.
  • Organizer: WCRP Workshop on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) Model Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: Honolulu, Hawaii, USA
• [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity (2012)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
• [Presentation] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing to tropospheric adjustment (2012)
  • Author(s): Tomoo Ogura
  • Organizer: EUCLIPSE-CFMIP Meeting
  • Place of Presentation: Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
• [Presentation] 気候モデルアンサンブルの自由度と信頼性評価 (2012)
  • Author(s): 横畠徳太
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2012年秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 札幌
• [Presentation] マルチ気候モデルおよび物理パラメータアンサンブルの信頼性評価 (2012)
  • Author(s): 横畠徳太
  • Organizer: 平成24年度京都大学防災研究所一般研究集会
  • Place of Presentation: 宇治
• [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles (2011)
  • Author(s): 横畠徳太
  • Organizer: American Geophysical Union Fall meeting 2011
  • Place of Presentation: Moscone Center (San Francisco, USA)(Invited)
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-06
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2011年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋大学(愛知県)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-16
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
  • Place of Presentation: 京都大学防災研究所(京都府)
  • Year and Date: 2011-11-09
• [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies (2011)
  • Author(s): 渡部雅浩
  • Organizer: WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
  • Place of Presentation: Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (Denver, USA)
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-27
• [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: WCRP Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
  • Place of Presentation: Sheraton Denver Downtown Hotel (Denver, USA)
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-26
• [Presentation] Can detuning ensembles provide insights into the projection uncertainty and performance of RCM? (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: Third international workshop on down-scaling
  • Place of Presentation: つくば国際会議場(茨城県)(Invited)
  • Year and Date: 2011-10-19
• [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 11th European Meteorological Society/10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology
  • Place of Presentation: Seminaris CampusHotel Berlin (Berlin, Germany)
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-13
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2011年度春期大会
  • Place of Presentation: 国立オリンピック記念青少年総合センター(東京都)
  • Year and Date: 2011-05-21
• [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles (2011)
  • Author(s): Tokuta Yokohata, Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tomoo Ogura, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Seita Emori, and Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: AGU Fall meeting
  • Place of Presentation: San Francisco
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会 2011年度秋季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 名古屋
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性のメカニズムと制約 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩,吉森正和, 小倉知夫,横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 釜江陽一, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 「異常気象と長期変動」研究集会
  • Place of Presentation: 宇治
• [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM (2011)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
  • Place of Presentation: Denver
• [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies (2011)
  • Author(s): Masahiro Watanabe, Hideo Shiogama, Tokuta Yokohata, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Seita Emori, and Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Climate Research in Service to Society
  • Place of Presentation: Denver
• [Presentation] Can detuning ensembles provide insights into the projection uncertainty and performance of RCM? (2011)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama
  • Organizer: Third international workshop on down-scaling
  • Place of Presentation: Tsukuba
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Physics Parameter Ensemble of MIROC5 AOGCM (2011)
  • Author(s): Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Masakazu Yoshimori, Tokuta Yokohata, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, Manabu Abe, Seita Emori, Toru Nozawa, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Masahide Kimoto
  • Organizer: 11th European Meteorological Society /10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology
  • Place of Presentation: Berlin,Germany
• [Presentation] 気候感度の物理パラメータ不確実性 (2011)
  • Author(s): 塩竈秀夫, 渡部雅浩, 吉森正和, 小倉知夫, 横畠徳太, 阿部学, James D Annan, Julia C Hargreaves, 江守正多, 野沢徹, 阿部彩子, 木本昌秀
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会 2011年度春季大会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京