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Unifided approach of climate modeling and satellite data analysis toward reducing uncertainty of climate change projection

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23340137
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeSingle-year Grants
Section一般
Research Field Meteorology/Physical oceanography/Hydrology
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

WATANABE Masahiro  東京大学, 大気海洋研究所, 准教授 (70344497)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) MASUNAGA Hirohiko  名古屋大学, 地球水循環研究センター, 准教授 (00444422)
OKAMOTO Hajime  九州大学, 応用力学研究所, 教授 (10333783)
SHIOGAMA Hideo  国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (30391113)
Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) OGURA Tomoo  国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 主任研究員 (10370264)
YOKOHATA Tokuta  国立環境研究所, 地球環境研究センター, 研究員 (20391170)
Project Period (FY) 2011-04-01 – 2014-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥20,150,000 (Direct Cost: ¥15,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,650,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥6,500,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,500,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥7,150,000 (Direct Cost: ¥5,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,650,000)
Keywords気候 / 気候モデル / 衛星データ / 物理アンサンブル / 雲フィードバック / 気候変化 / 地球温暖化 / 全球気候モデル / 雲のフィードバック / ENSO / 不確実性 / 雲 / 人工衛星データ
Research Abstract

Future projection of global mean temperature rise has contained uncertainty, even in the latest IPCC Assessment Report. This uncertainty is partly attributed to potential errors in parameterization processes (of clouds in particular) in global climate models (GCMs). Therefore, this study attempted to clarify sources of uncertainty in cloud feedbacks to climate warming by generating a large ensemble in which model parameters as well as parameterization schemes have been perturbed. Also, satellite data for cloud properties were actively used to assess climate model simulations.
Physics ensemble based on the MIROC GCM is a novel set of numerical experiments to explore the cloud feedback processes, and was successfully recognised in international climate science community. Comparisons of mean cloud and cloud macrophysical properties between GCM and satellite data could prodive clues for improving GCM for the subsequent climate change projection.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Annual Research Report
  • 2011 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (59 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (20 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 17 results,  Open Access: 1 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (35 results) (of which Invited: 23 results) Book (4 results)

  • [Journal Article] Multi-Parameter Multi-Physics Ensemble (MPMPE): A New Approach Exploring the Uncertainties of Climate Sensitivity2014

    • Author(s)
      Hideo Shiogama, Masahiro Watanabe, Tomoo Ogura, Tokuta Yokohata and Masahide Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Atmospheric Science Letters

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 2 Pages: 97-102

    • DOI

      10.1002/asl2.472

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing for rapid tropospheric adjustment2014

    • Author(s)
      Tomoo Ogura, Mark J. Webb, Masahiro Watanabe, Hugo Lambert, Yoko Tsushima, Miho Sekiguchi
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1409-1421

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-013-1955-x

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Relative contribution of feedback processes to Arctic amplification of temperature change in MIROC GCM2014

    • Author(s)
      Yoshimori M., Watanabe M., Abe-Ouchi A., Shiogama H., Ogura T.
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 42 Issue: 5-6 Pages: 1613-1630

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-013-1875-9

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Reliability and importance of structural diversity of climate model ensembles2014

    • Author(s)
      Yokohata, T., J. D. Annan, M. Collins, C. S. Jackson, H. Shiogama, M. Watanabe, S. Emori, M. Yoshimori, M. Abe, M. J. Webb, and J. C. Hargreaves
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 41 Issue: 9-10 Pages: 2745-2763

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-013-1733-9

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of CMIP5 upper troposphere geopotential height with GPS radio occultation observations2014

    • Author(s)
      Ao, C.-O., J. Jiang, M. Watanabe, and Coauthors
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res

      Volume: (in revisions)

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Robust increase of the equatorial Pacific rainfall and its variability in a warmed climate2014

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., Y. Kamae, and M. Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Geophys. Res. Lett.

      Volume: 41 Issue: 9 Pages: 3227-3232

    • DOI

      10.1002/2014gl059692

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Mechanism of tropical low-cloud response to surface warming using weather and climate simulations2013

    • Author(s)
      Satoru Demoto, Masahiro Watanabe and Youichi Kamae
    • Journal Title

      GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

      Volume: 40 Issue: 10 Pages: 1-6

    • DOI

      10.1002/grl.50474

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Tropospheric adjustment to increasing CO2: its timescale and the role of land?sea contrast2013

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae and Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: 41 Issue: 11-12 Pages: 3007-3024

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-012-1555-1

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Diagnosis of CMIP5 cloud simulations in relation to large-scale parameters using NASA 'A-Train' satellite observations and other datasets2013

    • Author(s)
      Su, H., J. H. Jiang, M. Watanabe, and Coauthors
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res.

      Volume: 118 Issue: 7 Pages: 2762-2780

    • DOI

      10.1029/2012jd018575

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using a Multi-Physics Ensemble for Exploring Diversity in Cloud Shortwave Feedback in GCMs2012

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: 25 Issue: 15 Pages: 5416-5431

    • DOI

      10.1175/jcli-d-11-00564.1

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in IPCC AR5 climate models using NASA "A-Train" satellite observations2012

    • Author(s)
      Jiang, H., M. Watanabe, and Coauthors
    • Journal Title

      J. Geophys. Res.

      Volume: 117 Issue: D14

    • DOI

      10.1029/2011jd017237

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results Parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity2012

    • Author(s)
      Shiogama, H., Watanabe, M.,Yoshimori, M., Yokohata, T., Ogura, T., Annan, J.D.,Hargreaves, J.C., Abe, M. Kamae, Y., O'ishi, R., Emori, S., Nozawa, T., Abe-Ouchi, A., Kimoto, M.
    • Journal Title

      CLIMATE DYNAMICS

      Volume: 39 Issue: 12 Pages: 3041-3056

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-012-1441-x

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] On the robustness of tropospheric adjustment in CMIP5 models2012

    • Author(s)
      Youichi Kamae
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Research Letters

      Volume: 39 Issue: 23

    • DOI

      10.1029/2012gl054275

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 気候感度. Part 1: 気候フィードバックの概念と理解の現状2012

    • Author(s)
      吉森正和
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 59 Pages: 5-22

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 気候感度. Part 2: 不確実性の低減への努力2012

    • Author(s)
      吉森正和
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 59 Pages: 91-109

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 気候感度. Part 3: 古環境からの検証2012

    • Author(s)
      吉森正和
    • Journal Title

      天気

      Volume: 59 Pages: 143-149

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., H.Shiogama, M.Yoshimori, T.Yokohata, T.Ogura, H.Okamoto, S.Emori, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Using a multi-physics ensemble for exploring diversity in cloud shortwave feedback in GCMs2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., H.Shiogama, T.Yokohata, Y.Kamae, M.Yoshimori, T.Ogura, J.D.Annan, J.C.Hargreaves, S.Emori, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Climate

      Volume: (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Physics parameter uncertainty and observational constraints of climate feedback : An ensemble coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM without flux corrections2012

    • Author(s)
      Shiogama, H., M.Watanabe, M.Yoshimori, T.Yokohata, T.Ogura, J.D.Annan, J.C.Hargreaves, M.Abe, Y.Kamae, R.O'ishi, R.Nobui, S.Emori, T.Nozawa, A.Abe-Ouchi, M.Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: (印刷中)

    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models2011

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M., H. Shiogama, M. Yoshimori, T. Ogura, T. Yokohata, H. Okamoto, S. Emori, and M. Kimoto
    • Journal Title

      Climate Dynamics

      Volume: volume 39 Issue: 7-8 Pages: 7-8

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00382-011-1178-y

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Toward reliable projection of the regional climate variability in a warming climate2014

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Toward predictive dynamics of regional climate change
    • Place of Presentation
      La Jolla , USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] How can we identify, attribute, and effectively use climate model biases?2014

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      WCRP Grand Challenge workshop on cloud, circulation and climate sensitivity
    • Place of Presentation
      Schloss Rindberg , Germany
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Toward reliable projection of the regional climate variability in a warming climate.2014

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Toward predictive dynamics of regional climate change
    • Place of Presentation
      La Jolla, USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] How can we identify, attribute, and effectively use climate model biases?2014

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      WCRP Grand Challenge wokshop on cloud, circulation and climate sensitivity
    • Place of Presentation
      Schloss Rindberg, Germany
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] エルニーニョと地球温暖化2013

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会 2013年秋季大会シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学,札幌
    • Year and Date
      2013-09-17
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Equatorial mean precipitation and ENSO in CMIP5 models : Its diversity and causes of errors2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ,千葉
    • Year and Date
      2013-05-24
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Land-sea thermal contrast and summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warmed climate2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      12th East Asian Climate conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Busan, Korea
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Review for CMIP5 high-resolution time slice experiments2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6
    • Place of Presentation
      Aspen , USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Decadal prediction and predictability : Lessons from CMIP52013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      RIMS International conference on theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学, 京都
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Land-sea thermal contrast and summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia in a warmed climate.2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      12th East Asian Climate conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Busan, Korea
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Review for CMIP5 high-resolution time slice experiments.2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Next generation climate change experiments needed to advance knowledge and for assessment of CMIP6
    • Place of Presentation
      Aspen, USA
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Decadal prediction and predictability: Lessons from CMIP5.2013

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      RIMS International conference on theoretical aspects of variability and predictability in weather and climate systems
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学、京都
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Evaluating and understanding climate feedback and sensitivity in different types of model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      2012 LASG summer symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      Xi'ning , China
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Processes controlling equilibrium climate sensitivity in model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      AOGS-AGU (WPGM) joint assembly
    • Place of Presentation
      Singapore
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 気候のモデリング : 決定論的 ?確率論的 ?2012

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会 2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学,札幌
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Evaluating and understanding climate feedback and sensitivity in different types of model ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      2012 LASG summer symposium
    • Place of Presentation
      Xi'ning, China
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Analyzing the climate sensitivity of MIROC and CMIP3/5 ensembles2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogura, T.
    • Organizer
      3rd International Conference on Earth System Modelling
    • Place of Presentation
      Hamburg, Gernmany
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Importance of instantaneous radiative forcing to tropospheric adjustment2012

    • Author(s)
      Ogura, T.
    • Organizer
      Joint EUCLIPSE-CFMIP meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Paris, France
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On the structural and parametric uncertainties of feedback, adjustment and climate sensitivity2012

    • Author(s)
      Shiogama, H.
    • Organizer
      Joint EUCLIPSE-CFMIP meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Paris, France
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Using a multi-physics ensemble for exploring diversity in cloud-shortwave feedback2012

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Joint EUCLIPSE-CFMIP meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Paris, France
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 気候のモデリング:決定論的? 確率論的?2012

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] フラックス調節無しでドリフトしない大気海洋結合モデル物理アンサンブル実験のデザイン2012

    • Author(s)
      塩竈秀夫
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 海陸コントラストがCO2増加時の対流圏調節において果たす役割2012

    • Author(s)
      釜江 陽一
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] MIROCにおける雲の海面水温変化に対する応答の評価2012

    • Author(s)
      出本哲
    • Organizer
      日本気象学会2012年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      札幌
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles2011

    • Author(s)
      Yokohata, T., and M. Waanabe
    • Organizer
      AGU Fall meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco , USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-12-06
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Understanding and validation of cloud response to CO2 increase using state-of-the-art climate model ensembles2011

    • Author(s)
      Tokuta Yokohata, Masahiro Watanabe
    • Organizer
      AGU fall meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco, USA(招待講演)
    • Year and Date
      2011-12-06
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies.2011

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      WCRP Open Science Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Denver , USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-27
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Modeling activity of the MIROC group for climate feedback and sensitivity studies2011

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Organizer
      WCRP Open Science Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Denver, USA
    • Year and Date
      2011-10-27
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Fast and slow timescales in the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in two climate models2011

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Organizer
      CFMIP/GCSS/EUCLIPSE Meeting on Cloud Processes and Climate Feedbacks
    • Place of Presentation
      Exeter, UK
    • Year and Date
      2011-06-06
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Comprehensive climate modeling linking structural and parametric uncertainties2011

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Trieste
    • Place of Presentation
      Italy
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Constraints to the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in climate models2011

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      Joint Yonsei CTL-AORI-Hanyang-KORDI workshop on climate change and variability
    • Place of Presentation
      Gangwondo, Korea
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Comprehensive climate modeling linking structural and parametric uncertainties2011

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Workshop on "Hierarchical modeling of climate"
    • Place of Presentation
      Trieste, Italy(招待講演)
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Constraints to the tropical low-cloud response to increasing CO2 in climate models2011

    • Author(s)
      Masahiro Watanabe
    • Organizer
      Joint Yonsei CTL-AORI-Hanyang-KORDI workshop on climate change and variability
    • Place of Presentation
      Gangwondo, Korea(招待講演)
    • Related Report
      2011 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Equatorial mean precipitation andENSO in CMIP5 models: Its diversity and causes of errors.

    • Author(s)
      Watanabe, M.
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ、千葉
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] エルニーニョと地球温暖化

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩
    • Organizer
      日本海洋学会2013年秋季大会シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学、札幌
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 地球温暖化の事典2014

    • Author(s)
      国立環境研究所地球環境研究センター( 分担執筆 )
    • Total Pages
      435
    • Publisher
      丸善
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] 地球温暖化の事典2014

    • Author(s)
      国立環境研究所地球環境研究センター (分担執筆)
    • Total Pages
      435
    • Publisher
      丸善
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] エルニーニョ・南方振動 (ENSO) 研究の現在2013

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩 , 木本昌秀 ( 編著 )
    • Total Pages
      230
    • Publisher
      日本気象学会
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] エルニーニョ・南方振動(ENSO)研究の現在2013

    • Author(s)
      渡部雅浩, 木本昌秀 (編著)
    • Total Pages
      230
    • Publisher
      日本気象学会
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2011-04-06   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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