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A new perspective for the effect decomposition problem

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23500346
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics

Principal Investigator

KUROKI Manabu  統計数理研究所, データ科学, 准教授 (60334512)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) NOMA Hisashi  統計数理研究所, データ科学研究系, 助教 (70633486)
Research Collaborator JUDEA Pearl  UCLA, Cgnitive System Lab, Professor
CAI Zhihong  日本イーライリリー株式会社, 臨床開発部, アソシエイト
SANO Natsuki  東京理科大学, 理工学部, 助教 (60568971)
Project Period (FY) 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords未観測交絡因子 / 直接効果 / 間接効果 / 代替エンドポイント / 総合効果 / 中間変数 / 交絡因子 / 補助変数 / 因果効果 / 潜在反応アプローチ / 存在範囲 / 正規線形回帰モデル / ロジスティック回帰モデル / 原因の確率 / 同時介入 / 共変量情報
Outline of Final Research Achievements

In this research, I considered evaluation problems for direct and indirect effects through a new causal concept, `natural'. Especially, I developed the effect restoration methods to derive the consistent estimator of the total effects when unmeasured confounders exist. In addition, I proposed selection criteria for intermediate variables to estimate direct effects with the variation reduction, and provided a new look at the propensity score method from the proposed criteria.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (42 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011

All Journal Article (18 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 18 results,  Open Access: 4 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 4 results) Presentation (24 results) (of which Invited: 7 results)

  • [Journal Article] 統計的因果推論における原因の確率とその評価2014

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Journal Title

      統計数理

      Volume: 62 Pages: 423-437

    • NAID

      120006020816

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A New Proportion Measure of The Treatment Effect Captured by Candidate Surrogate Endpoints2014

    • Author(s)
      F.Kobayashi and M.Kuroki
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in Medicine

      Volume: 33 Pages: 3338-3353

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Effect restoration and measurement bias in causal inference2014

    • Author(s)
      Kuroki, M. and Pearl, J.
    • Journal Title

      Biometrika

      Volume: 101 Pages: 423-437

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] 中間特性を用いた場合の総合効果の推定精度について2014

    • Author(s)
      黒木学・林崇弘
    • Journal Title

      品質

      Volume: 44 Pages: 429-440

    • NAID

      110009890786

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Impact of surgical site infections after open and laparoscopic colon and rectal surgeries on postoperative resource consumption2013

    • Author(s)
      Fukuda H, Morikane K, Kuroki M, Kawai S, Hayashi K, Ieiri Y, Matsukawa H, Okada K, Sakamoto F, Shinzato T, Taniguchi S.
    • Journal Title

      Infection

      Volume: 40 Pages: 649-659

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report 2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Toward the rational use of standardized infection ratios to benchmark surgical site infections2013

    • Author(s)
      Fukuda H, Morikane K, Kuroki M, Taniguchi S, Shinzato T, Sakamoto F, Okada K, Matsukawa H, Ieiri Y, Hayashi K, Kawai S.
    • Journal Title

      American Journal of Infection Control

      Volume: 41 Pages: 810-814

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Medical Diagnostic Test based on the Potential Test Result Approach,2013

    • Author(s)
      A.Kada, Z.Cai and M. Kuroki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Statistics

      Volume: 40 Pages: 1659-1672

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] カーネル主変数選択法とその応用2013

    • Author(s)
      佐野夏樹・黒木学
    • Journal Title

      品質

      Volume: 43 Pages: 387-400

    • NAID

      110009625095

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Sharp Bounds on The Causal Effect using a Surrogate Endpoint2013

    • Author(s)
      M.Kuroki
    • Journal Title

      Statistics in Medicine

      Volume: 32 Pages: 4338-4347

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Multiple Imputation 法によるネステッドケースコントロール研究,ケースコホート研究の解析2013

    • Author(s)
      野間久史,田中司朗,田中佐智子,和泉志津恵
    • Journal Title

      計量生物学

      Volume: 33 Pages: 101-124

    • NAID

      10031155994

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 構造的因果モデルについて2012

    • Author(s)
      黒木学・小林史明
    • Journal Title

      計量生物学

      Volume: 32 Pages: 119-144

    • NAID

      10030631609

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 誤差相関のない確認的直交二因子モデルの探索可能性について2012

    • Author(s)
      水関裕人・黒木学
    • Journal Title

      応用統計学

      Volume: 41 Pages: 129-152

    • NAID

      10031140403

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Discussion on "Experimental designs for identifying causal mechanisms"2012

    • Author(s)
      M.Kuroki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A

      Volume: 173 Pages: 37-38

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Optimizing a control plan using causal diagram2012

    • Author(s)
      M.Kuroki
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Applied Statistics

      Volume: 27 Pages: 673-694

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] カーネルMTシステムとその応用2012

    • Author(s)
      佐野夏樹・黒木学
    • Journal Title

      品質

      Volume: 42 Pages: 127-138

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] ロジスティック回帰モデルにおける弱併合可能性について2012

    • Author(s)
      水関裕人・黒木学
    • Journal Title

      品質

      Volume: 42 Pages: 139-147

    • NAID

      110009327969

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 無向独立グラフに基づく線形回帰モデルにおける弱併合可能条件2011

    • Author(s)
      黒木学・水関裕人
    • Journal Title

      品質

      Volume: 41 Pages: 250-259

    • NAID

      110008608064

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Statistical analysis of probabilities of causation2011

    • Author(s)
      M.Kuroki and Z.Cai
    • Journal Title

      Scandinavian Journal of Statistics

      Volume: 38 Pages: 564-577

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] 因果関係は確率的グラフィカルモデルで描けるか?2015

    • Author(s)
      黒木学・今井徹
    • Organizer
      数学協働プログラムワークショップ「確率的グラフィカルモデル」
    • Place of Presentation
      日本
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-19 – 2015-03-20
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Discussion on ``Design, Identification, and Sensitivity Analysis for Patient Preference Trials”2015

    • Author(s)
      M,Kuroki
    • Organizer
      2015 Asian Political Methodology Meeting in Taiwan
    • Place of Presentation
      Taiwan
    • Year and Date
      2015-01-09 – 2015-01-10
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Unifying Algebraic and Graphical Methods for the Identification of Causal Effects in Linear SEMs2014

    • Author(s)
      H.Chan and M.Kuroki
    • Organizer
      Kyoto International Conference on Modern Statistics
    • Place of Presentation
      Japan
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-17 – 2014-11-18
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Probabilities of causation with two variables: bounds and sensitivity analysis2014

    • Author(s)
      T. Hayashi and M. Kuroki
    • Organizer
      2014 Joint Statistical Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      USA
    • Year and Date
      2014-08-02 – 2014-08-07
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] On Estimating Causal Effects based on Supplemental Variables2014

    • Author(s)
      T. Hayashi and M. Kuroki
    • Organizer
      The 15th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics
    • Place of Presentation
      Iceland
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-22 – 2014-04-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 総合効果の推定精度における中間特性の役割について2013

    • Author(s)
      林崇弘・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第103回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 中間エンドポイントに基づく因果効果の存在範囲2013

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本行動計量学会第41回大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東邦大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 誤差相関のない確認的直交二因子モデルの探索可能性について2013

    • Author(s)
      水関裕人・黒木学
    • Organizer
      2013年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Measurement Bias and Effect Restoration in Causal Inference2013

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      2013年度後期第5回応用統計ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] .要因効果推定における回帰分析の利用に関する諸注意2013

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第103回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 統計的因果推論入門2013

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      2012年度日本行動計量学会春の合宿セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] ロジスティック回帰モデルにおける併合可能性について2012

    • Author(s)
      黒木学・水関裕人
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第42回年次大会研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      石川県
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 統計的因果推論における原因の確率の考え方2012

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      応用統計学会2012 年度年会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] New Measures of the PTE by Surrogate Markers2011

    • Author(s)
      F.Kobayashi and M.Kuroki
    • Organizer
      The 32th Annual Conference of the ISCB
    • Place of Presentation
      Canada
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] カーネル主変数選択法とその応用2011

    • Author(s)
      佐野夏樹・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第95回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 傾向スコアを用いたNatural Direct and Indirect Effectsの統計的評価2011

    • Author(s)
      小林史明・黒木学
    • Organizer
      2011年度日本計量生物学会年会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 「統計的品質情報解析研究会」報告-第三報-2011

    • Author(s)
      稲葉太一・清水貴宏・神谷一徳・黒木学・濱口勝重・舟橋徹・森田浩・吉田節
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第97回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] グラフィカルモデリングを使った業務適正アンケートのモデル化2011

    • Author(s)
      清水貴宏・田淵淳一・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第97回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] カーネルMTシステムによるワイン品質の判別2011

    • Author(s)
      佐野夏樹・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第97回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Identification of Causal Effect in Linear SEMs2011

    • Author(s)
      H.Chan and M.Kuroki
    • Organizer
      2011年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      福岡
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 二因子モデルの探索可能性について2011

    • Author(s)
      水関裕人・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第97回研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 操作変数法の一般化とその応用可能性について2011

    • Author(s)
      陳希・黒木学
    • Organizer
      日本品質管理学会第41回年次大会研究発表会
    • Place of Presentation
      愛知
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Identification Conditions of Direct Effects2011

    • Author(s)
      M. Kuroki
    • Organizer
      2011 Joint Statistical Meeting(招待講演)
    • Place of Presentation
      Florida
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Probabilities of Causation2011

    • Author(s)
      黒木学
    • Organizer
      人工知能学会第83回人工知能基本問題研究会「ベイジアン・ネットワークと応用および一般」(招待講演)
    • Place of Presentation
      東京
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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