• Search Research Projects
  • Search Researchers
  • How to Use
  1. Back to previous page

New approach based on the critical phenomena concept to assess the occurrence time of earthquakes

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23510218
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Natural disaster science
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

UYEDA Seiya  東京大学, 地震研究所, 名誉教授 (60011459)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KAMOGAWA Masashi  東京学芸大学, 教育学部, 助教 (00329111)
UYESHIMA Makoto  東京大学, 地震研究所, 准教授 (70242154)
Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2013
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,330,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,230,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywords地震 / 臨界現象 / ナチュラルタイム / 自然現象観測・予測 / 国際情報交流
Research Abstract

It has recently been suggested that the approach of a system to critical state can be estimated by the Natural Time analysis of time series leading to a critical phenomenon. Natural Time is a new concept of time, which assumes that time proceeds only when an event occurs. Critical state can be recognized when a parameter called kappa1, that can be derived through the above analysis, converges to 0.07. In this study, approach to 0.07 was comparatively examined for various known critical phenomena. In investigating the statistical properties of kappa1, we found that its fluctuation in seismicity before the 2011 M9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake exhibited a remarkable variation.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2013 2012 2011

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 8 results) Presentation (1 results) Book (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Sarlis, N. V., E. S. Skordas, P. A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, H. Tanaka, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci

      Volume: 110(34) Pages: 13734-13738

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Minimum of the order parameter fluctuations of seismicity before major earthquakes in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Sarlis, N. V., E. S. Skordas, P. A. Varotsos, T. Nagao, M. Kamogawa, H. Tanaka, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.

      Volume: 110 Issue: 34 Pages: 13734-13738

    • DOI

      10.1073/pnas.1312740110

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, T. Nagao, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.

      Volume: 109 Issue: 47 Pages: 19125-19128

    • DOI

      10.1073/pnas.1215669109

    • NAID

      40019635187

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Preseismic anomalous telluric current signals observed in Kozu-shima Island, Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Y. Orihara, M. Kamogawa, T. Nagao, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci

      Volume: 109 Pages: 19125-19128

    • NAID

      40019635187

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Variations of geoelectric potential differences associated with an anomalous volumetric strain change in the region of expected Tokai Earthquake, Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Orihara, Y., M. Kamogawa, T. Nagao, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 121-127

    • DOI

      10.5194/nhess-11-1-2011

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Variations of geoelectric potential differences associated with an anomalous volumetric strain change in the region of expected Tokai Earthquake, Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Orihara, Y., M. Kamogawa, T. Nagao, and S. Uyeda
    • Journal Title

      Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

      Volume: 12 Issue: 1 Pages: 121-127

    • DOI

      10.5194/nhess-12-121-2012

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Natural time analysis of critical phenomena2011

    • Author(s)
      Varotsos, P. A., N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, S. Uyeda and M. Kamogawa
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci

      Volume: 108, 28 Issue: 28 Pages: 11361-11364

    • DOI

      10.1073/pnas.1108138108

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Natural time analysis of critical phenomena2011

    • Author(s)
      Varotsos, P. A., N. V. Sarlis, E. S. Skordas, S. Uyeda, and M. Kamogawa
    • Journal Title

      Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA

      Volume: 108 Pages: 11361-11364

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Earthquake prediction in Japan and natural time analysis of seismicity2011

    • Author(s)
      S. Uyeda and P. A. Varotsos
    • Organizer
      American Geophysical Union(招待講演)
    • Place of Presentation
      San Francisco, USA
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 地震予知研究の最前線2012

    • Author(s)
      鴨川仁,織原義明,長尾年恭,竹内昭洋,上田誠也
    • Total Pages
      800
    • Publisher
      日本専門図書出版
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Book] What we can do in seismo-electromagnetism and electromagnetic precursors, in Earth's Magnetic Interior (IAGA special Sopron book series 1), Volume 12011

    • Author(s)
      Nagao, T., S. Uyeda and M. Kamogawa
    • Publisher
      Springer(DOI:10.1007/978-94-007-0323-0_6)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Book] Earthquake Prediction and Precursor, Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics, Part 52011

    • Author(s)
      Uyeda, S., T. Nagao and M. Kamogawa
    • Publisher
      Springer(DOI:10.1007/978-90-481-8702-7_4)
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

Information User Guide FAQ News Terms of Use Attribution of KAKENHI

Powered by NII kakenhi