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An Economic Analysis of Residential Mobility, Liquidity Constraints and House-Price Dynamics

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23530225
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic theory
Research InstitutionMusashino University (2013-2014)
Keio University (2011-2012)

Principal Investigator

SEKO Miki  武蔵野大学, 経済学部, 教授 (60120490)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) KURODA Tatsuaki  名古屋大学, 環境学研究科, 教授 (00183319)
SUMITA Kazuto  東洋大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (10350745)
NAOI Michio  慶應義塾大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (70365477)
Project Period (FY) 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Keywords遡及型住宅融資制度 / 流動性制約 / 住替 / 住宅価格変動 / ロックイン効果 / 非遡及型住宅融資制度 / パネルデータ / リコース・ローン / ノンリコース・ローン / 転居 / 遡及型融資制度 / 非遡及型融資制度 / 不動産価格の変動 / 遡及型住宅融資
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We investigated house-price dynamics based on imperfections in housing finance market by focusing on the mortgage loan system. Especially we analyzed the relationship between house-price and business cycle. Furthermore we also analyzed the design of housing finance system through the analysis of the effects of housing equity constraints on residential moves and house-price dynamics. Based on those results we proposed future directions of housing policies in Japan. First, we found that under a recourse loan system, housing equity constraints deterred residential mobility by presenting a theoretical model and estimating the logit model using Japanese household longitudinal data covering all Japan. Next, we analyzed the relationship between borrowing patterns and house-price dynamics under the recourse-loan system using Japanese prefectural-level data and compared the results under the non-recourse loan systems.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (64 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (19 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 5 results) Presentation (36 results) (of which Invited: 3 results) Book (9 results)

  • [Journal Article] 住宅の地震リスク軽減を―保険料きめ細かく2015

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Journal Title

      日本経済新聞(2015年2月10日)「経済教室」欄

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 地震リスクと防災対策―経済学の観点から2014

    • Author(s)
      瀬古 美喜
    • Journal Title

      月刊 不動産流通

      Volume: 33 Pages: 8-9

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 住宅資産効果の検証―参照点依存型の選好と家計消費2014

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Journal Title

      三田学会雑誌

      Volume: 106 Pages: 57-71

    • NAID

      120005526937

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 家計の失業・所得変動リスクと住宅取得タイミング2013

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Journal Title

      季刊住宅土地経済

      Volume: 87 Pages: 20-27

    • NAID

      40019544549

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 家計の所得変動リスクと住宅ローン需要2013

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Journal Title

      住宅・金融フォーラム

      Volume: 13 Pages: 23-35

    • NAID

      40019654008

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report 2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 日本の住宅市場の経済分析2013

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Journal Title

      三田学会雑誌

      Volume: 105(4) Pages: 1-49

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] The Role of Public Infrastructure in China’s Regional Inequality and Growth: A Simultaneous Equations Approach2013

    • Author(s)
      D. Zheng, T. Kuroda
    • Journal Title

      The Developing Economies

      Volume: 51 Issue: 1 Pages: 79-109

    • DOI

      10.1111/deve.12003

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 家計の失業・所得変動リスクと住宅取得タイミング2013

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Journal Title

      季刊:住宅土地経済

      Volume: 87 Pages: 20-27

    • NAID

      40019544549

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] The Impact of Economic Policy on Industrial Specialization and Regional Concentration of China’s High-tech Industries2012

    • Author(s)
      D. Zheng, T. Kuroda
    • Journal Title

      Annals of Regional Science (on line)

      Volume: なし Issue: 3 Pages: 1-20

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00168-012-0522-4

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report 2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 巻頭言 自然災害への備え:東日本大震災の影響2012

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Journal Title

      季刊:住宅土地経済

      Volume: 84 Pages: 1-1

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Mortgage Market: Character and Trends - Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      M.Seko and K.Sumita
    • Journal Title

      International Encyclopedia of Housing and Home ( Elsevier Limited: Oxford)

      Volume: 4 Pages: 465-473

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Residential Mobility Decisions in Japan: Effects of Housing Equity Constraints and Income Shocks under the Recourse Loan System2012

    • Author(s)
      Seko, M., K. Sumita and M. Naoi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics

      Volume: 45(1) Issue: 1 Pages: 63-87

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11146-011-9322-3

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report 2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Earthquake Risk in Japan: Consumers' Risk Mitigation Responses after the Great East Japan Earthquake2012

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M., M. Seko and T. Ishino
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Issues

      Volume: 46(2) Issue: 2 Pages: 519-530

    • DOI

      10.2753/jei0021-3624460227

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Unemployment Risk, Homeownership and Housing Wealth: Lessons from Bubble Aftermath in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Moriizumi, Y. and M. Naoi
    • Journal Title

      Jones, C., M. White and N. Dunse (eds.), Challenges of the Housing Economy: An International Perspective

      Volume: なし Pages: 58-89

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 子どもの学力と家計――「慶應子どもパネル調査2011」を用いて2012

    • Author(s)
      赤林英夫・中村亮介・直井道生・山下絢・敷島千鶴・篠ヶ谷圭太
    • Journal Title

      樋口・宮内・McKenzie(編)『親子関係と家計行動のダイナミズム』(慶應義塾大学出版会)

      Volume: なし Pages: 25-48

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 東日本大震災と家計の地震保険加入行動2012

    • Author(s)
      石野卓也・直井道生・瀬古美喜
    • Journal Title

      瀬古・照山・山本・樋口(編)『日本の家計行動のダイナミズムVIII』(慶應義塾大学出版会)

      Volume: なし Pages: 273-288

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Earthquake Risk in Japan: Consumers' Risk Mitigation Responses after the Great East Japan Earthquake2012

    • Author(s)
      直井道生・瀬古美喜・石野卓也
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Issues

      Volume: forthcoming

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Unemployment Risk, Homeownership and Housing Wealth: Lessons from Bubble Aftermath in Japan2011

    • Author(s)
      直井道生・森泉陽子
    • Journal Title

      Jones, C., M. White and N. Dunse (eds.), Challenges of the Housing Economy: An International Perspective, John Wiley & Sons

      Volume: × Pages: 58-89

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 不動産価格の変動とマクロ経済への影響:転居阻害要因と住宅価格変動の分析から2011

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・隅田和人・直井道生
    • Journal Title

      岩井克人・瀬古美喜・翁 百合編『金融危機とマクロ経済:資産市場の変動と金融政策・規制』東京大学出版会

      Volume: × Pages: 109-135

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地震リスクと住宅・防災対策 ー日本の住宅市場と家計行動の観点よりー2015

    • Author(s)
      瀬古 美喜
    • Organizer
      2015年 日本不動産金融工学学会定期大会
    • Place of Presentation
      早稲田大学大学院ファイナンス研究科 (東京都・中央区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-02-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 地震リスクと防災対策 -日本の住宅市場と家計行動の観点よりー2015

    • Author(s)
      瀬古 美喜
    • Organizer
      日本学術会議 第2回国際協力分科会
    • Place of Presentation
      政策研究大学院大学 (東京都・港区)
    • Year and Date
      2015-01-31
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 日本の住宅市場と家計行動 -借家市場の流動化と整備ー 定期借家をめぐって2014

    • Author(s)
      瀬古 美喜
    • Organizer
      第51回住宅政策研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学大学院経済学研究科付属日本経済国際共同研究センター (東京都・文京区)
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-02
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The Rent Term Premium for Cancellable Leases2014

    • Author(s)
      Jiro Yoshida, Miki Seko and Kazuto Sumita
    • Organizer
      Maastricht - NUS - MIT Symposium 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Maastricht (Netherlands)
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-01
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Subjective Belief, Risk Information and Earthquake Insurance Purchase: Evidence from Japanese Post-Quake Data2014

    • Author(s)
      Mihio Naoi, Takuya Ishino and Miki Seko
    • Organizer
      20th International Panel Data Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Hitotsubashi Hall (Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo)
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Downward-Sloping Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Puzzle2012

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・隅田和人・吉田二郎
    • Organizer
      Allied Social Science Associations, 2012 Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, USA
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Earthquake Risk in Japan: Consumers' Risk Mitigation Responses after the Great East Japan Earthquake2012

    • Author(s)
      直井道生・瀬古美喜・石野卓也
    • Organizer
      Allied Social Science Associations, 2012 Annual Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Chicago, USA
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Asymmetric Consumption Response to the Housing Wealth Changes2012

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Organizer
      European Network for Housing Research, Housing Economics Working Group Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Vienna, Austria
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Leverage and House-price Dynamics Under the Recourse-Loan System in Japanese prefectures (With Miki Seko, Kazuto Sumita and Kensuke Konno)2011

    • Author(s)
      隅田和人
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2011年度春季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      熊本学園大学(熊本県)
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Leverage and House-price Dynamics Under the Recourse-Loan System in Japanese prefectures (With Miki Seko, Kazuto Sumita and Kensuke Konno)2011

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・隅田和人
    • Organizer
      International Economic Association 16th World Congress
    • Place of Presentation
      Tshing-Hua University, Beijing, China
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Rental Housing and Government Policy in Japan2011

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      The Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) and American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Joint International Conference 2011(招待講演)
    • Place of Presentation
      Shilla Jeju, Jeju Island, Korea
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Term Structure of Lease Rates: Is There Discrepancy Between Model and Data?2011

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・隅田和人・吉田二郎
    • Organizer
      The Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) and American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Joint International Conference 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Shilla Jeju, Jeju Island, Korea
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Public Infrastructure, Regional Inequality and Growth in China2011

    • Author(s)
      Zheng Dan & Tatsuaki Kuroda
    • Organizer
      51st Congress of the European Regional Science Association
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Barcelona, Spain
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Strategic pricing of commuter railways competing with roads2011

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuaki Kuroda
    • Organizer
      51st Congress of the European Regional Science Association
    • Place of Presentation
      niversity of Barcelona, Spain
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Compact City vs. Garden City in Declining Society2011

    • Author(s)
      Tatsuaki Kuroda
    • Organizer
      Beijing Forum 2011(招待講演)
    • Place of Presentation
      Peking University, China
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Public Infrastructure, Regional Inequality and Growth in China2011

    • Author(s)
      Zheng Dan & Tatsuaki Kuroda
    • Organizer
      第25回応用地域学会
    • Place of Presentation
      富山大学
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Asymmetric Consumption Response to the Housing Wealth Changes2011

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Organizer
      応用地域学会2011年研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      富山大学
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Subjective Belief, Risk Information and Earthquake Insurance Purchase

    • Author(s)
      Naoi, M.
    • Organizer
      Asian Real Estate Society, International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto University
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Tax Credits and User Cost of Owner-occupied Housing in Japan: Bayesian Time Varying Coefficient Model Approach

    • Author(s)
      Sumita, K.
    • Organizer
      Asian Real Estate Society, International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto University
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 地震発生リスクと住宅価格:家計パネル調査による分析

    • Author(s)
      隅田 和人
    • Organizer
      2013年度東京大学空間情報科学研究センター・シンポジウム
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学駒場キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A model of stratified production process and spatial risk

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, T.
    • Organizer
      The 3rd Asian Seminar in Regional Science
    • Place of Presentation
      National Dong Hwa University, Hualien, Taiwan
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A model of stratified production process and spatial risk

    • Author(s)
      Kuroda, T.
    • Organizer
      53rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Palermo in Sicily, Italy
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Subjective Belief, Risk Information and Earthquake Insurance Purchase: Evidence from Post-Quake Japanese Data

    • Author(s)
      直井道生・石野卓也・瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2013年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      神奈川大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Term Structure of Cancellable Lease Rates

    • Author(s)
      隅田和人・瀬古美喜・吉田二郎
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会2013年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      神奈川大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 家計パネル調査からみた液状化現象への対処

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Organizer
      都市住宅学会2013年学術講演会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 不動産価格の変動とマクロ経済

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      財務省財務総合政策研究所先端セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      財務省財務総合政策研究所 (東京)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Reference-Dependent Preferences and Homeowners’ Consumption Responses to Wealth Shocks

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学 (北海道)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Income Risk and Mortgage Choice among Japanese Households

    • Author(s)
      M.Naoi
    • Organizer
      American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association-Asian Real Estate Society, Joint International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      National University of Singapore (Singapore)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Do Housing Loan Tax Credits Really Reduce User Cost of Housing? Housing subsidy policy in post-Bubble Japan

    • Author(s)
      K.Sumita
    • Organizer
      Asian Real Estate Society – American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Joint International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      National University of Singapore (Singapore)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 自然災害への備え:東日本大震災の影響

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      慶應義塾大学パネルデータ設計・解析センター シンポジウム『東日本大震災が人々の心理・価値感・行動に与えた影響』
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学 (東京)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A model of stratified production process and spatial risk

    • Author(s)
      T.Kuroda
    • Organizer
      52nd Congress of the European Regional Science Association
    • Place of Presentation
      University of Economics in Bratislava (Slovakia)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 東日本大震災と家計の防災・減災行動 -地震保険加入と住宅耐震改修-

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      日本学術会議 経済学委員会資産市場とマクロ経済分科会
    • Place of Presentation
      日本学術会議 (東京)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Do Housing Loan Tax Credits Really Reduce User Cost of Housing? Housing subsidy policy in post-Bubble Japan

    • Author(s)
      隅田和人
    • Organizer
      応用地域学会(ARSC) 第26回研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      青森公立大学 (青森)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The Term Structure of Cancellable Lease Rates

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Organizer
      応用地域学会(ARSC) 第26回研究発表大会
    • Place of Presentation
      青森公立大学 (青森)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Subjective Belief, External Information and Earthquake Insurance Purchase: Evidence from Post-Quake Japanese Data

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜・直井道生
    • Organizer
      The Third Market Quality Research Project Workshop 京都大学経済研究所
    • Place of Presentation
      京都大学経済研究所 (京都)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Do Housing Loan Tax Credits Really Reduce User Cost of Housing? Housing subsidy policy in post-Bubble Japan

    • Author(s)
      K.Sumita
    • Organizer
      WEAI 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      慶應義塾大学 (東京)
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 日本の住宅市場と家計行動 (2014年度 第57回日経・経済図書文化賞受賞)2014

    • Author(s)
      瀬古 美喜
    • Total Pages
      320
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] 都市・地域・不動産の経済分析2014

    • Author(s)
      隅田和人・直井道生・奥村保規(編著)
    • Total Pages
      348
    • Publisher
      慶應義塾大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「1年後−復旧状況と復興に向けて」高橋・田中・木股編『スマトラ地震による津波災害と復興』2014

    • Author(s)
      田中重好・黒田達朗
    • Publisher
      古今書院
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「自然災害への対峙—オオカミ少年と科学者の間」高橋・田中・木股編『スマトラ地震による津波災害と復興』2014

    • Author(s)
      黒田達朗
    • Publisher
      古今書院
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 日本の住宅市場と家計行動2014

    • Author(s)
      瀬古美喜
    • Total Pages
      320
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] Lessons in Sustainable Development from Japan and South Korea2014

    • Author(s)
      Hsu, S., M. Naoi, W. Zhang
    • Publisher
      Palgrave
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「東日本大震災の自然災害に対する備えの意識の推移」瀬古美嬉・照山博司・山本勲・樋口美雄・慶應-京大連携グローバルCOE編『日本の家計行動のダイナミズムIX――家計パネルデータからみた市場の質』2013

    • Author(s)
      石野卓也・瀬古美喜
    • Publisher
      慶應義塾大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 金融危機とマクロ経済:資産市場の変動と金融政策・規制2011

    • Author(s)
      岩井克人・瀬古美喜・翁百合
    • Total Pages
      306
    • Publisher
      東京大学出版会
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 自然災害リスクの経済分析―家計による地震発生リスクの評価と危険回避行動2011

    • Author(s)
      直井道生
    • Total Pages
      114
    • Publisher
      三菱経済研究所
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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