Developing and Applying the Level and Gap Indices of Business Cycles
| Project/Area Number |
23530255
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic statistics
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| Research Institution | Konan University (2015-2016)
Osaka Prefecture University (2011-2014) |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011-04-28 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
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| Keywords | 景気指数 / GDPギャップ / トレンド / サイクル / インフレ期待 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In business cycle measurement, "classical cycles" are cycles in the raw series, and "growth cycles" are cycles in the detrended series. We use real GDP and GDP gap to measure classical and growth cycles, respectively. To capture the state of the economy promptly, we must measure monthly real GDP and GDP gap. Moreover, under the recent global deflation, we also want to measure inflation (deflation) expectations. This research has developed three methods: (1) multivariate trend--cycle decomposition, (2) joint estimation of monthly real GDP and GDP gap, and (3) measuring the distribution of inflation expectations using interval data.
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Report
(7 results)
Research Products
(16 results)
