| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Research Abstract |
We examine the efficacy of trade sanctions in stopping nuclear proliferation. A target's nuclear program is modeled as a dynamic stochastic R&D process. We find that when a sanctioning country cannot pre-commit to keeping sanctions in force long after a target becomes a nuclear power, sanctions are not only inefficacious but they backfire, spurring a target to intensify its effort to complete the nuclear program. If the nuclear program has several stages, hitting a target hardest early in the program is more likely to halt the program than the policy of gradually increasing sanctions as a target progresses.
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