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Economic Analysis of Sustainability of Economy by Accepting More Immigrants in Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23530358
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionUniversity of Tsukuba

Principal Investigator

NAITO Hisahiro  筑波大学, 人文社会系, 准教授 (00335390)

Project Period (FY) 2011-04-28 – 2015-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,070,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,170,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Keywords移民受け入れ / 社会保障 / 持続可能性 / 大規模シミュレーション / 高齢化社会 / 大規模重複世代モデル / アメリカ経済 / 日本経済 / 移民 / パレート改善 / 資本蓄積 / 高齢化
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Recently, in Japan, a policy to increase the immigrant-native ratio is seriously discussed to increase the sustainability of the current social security system. In this research, I developed a large-scale simulation model by extending the model developed by Auerbach-Kotlikoff. Using this simulation model, I analyzed the effect of increasing immigrant-native ratio on economic welfare by calibrating the US economy. In the US, the immigrant-native ratio increased by 10 percentage points in the past 40 years. In this simulation, I assume that this ratio increases by another 10 percentage point within the next 80 years. My simulation analysis shows that the welfare gain of increasing immigrant-native ratio another 10 percentage point is equivalent to 15% of the initial GDP. At the new equilibrium the capital stock per capita will increase by 20 percentage point. The simulation analysis shows that the welfare gain of increasing immigrant-native ratio is substantial.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2014 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (8 results)

All 2014 2011 Other

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 2 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results) Presentation (6 results) (of which Invited: 1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Pareto-Improving Immigration and Its Effect on Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security2014

    • Author(s)
      Hisahiro Naito
    • Journal Title

      Tokyo Center for Economic Research (TCER) Paper

      Volume: No. E-81 Pages: 1-81

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The Effect of Immigrant Inflow on Native’s Human Capital Accumulation2014

    • Author(s)
      Hisahiro Naito
    • Journal Title

      Tsukuba Economics Working Papers

      Volume: 6 Pages: 1-25

    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of Social Security2014

    • Author(s)
      内藤久裕
    • Organizer
      統計研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      高知市民会館(高知県高知市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-04
    • Related Report
      2014 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving immigration in the presence of social security2011

    • Author(s)
      Hisahiro Naito
    • Organizer
      Econometric society summer meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      St Louis, USA
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving immigration in the presence of social security2011

    • Author(s)
      Hisahiro Naito
    • Organizer
      European Economic association meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Oslo, Norway
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of Social Security

    • Author(s)
      内藤久裕
    • Organizer
      第15回 マクロコンファレンス
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of Social Security

    • Author(s)
      Hisahiro Naito
    • Organizer
      ビクトリア大学経済学部ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      ビクトリア大学(カナダ)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Pareto-improving Immigration in the Presence of Social Security

    • Author(s)
      内藤久裕
    • Organizer
      マクロ経済ワークショップ(東京大学)
    • Place of Presentation
      東京大学経済学部
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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