| Budget Amount *help |
¥2,730,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥630,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥60,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Research Abstract |
We analyzed the effect that business variation affects the credit cycle for companies, and found that a model with trend and cycle terms derived by a filtering decomposition of macroeconomic variables has more default predictive power than a model with original variables. In addition, we developed a model that transforms a macro-stress scenario into risk parameters of a credit portfolio risk model, the use of which enabled us to evaluate portfolio credit risk and firm-values, considering macroeconomic variables and correlations between industries. Our research outcomes are published in two peer-reviewed journals.
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