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Prediction of Epidemic of Infectious Disease by Statistical Modeling, and Scientific Policy Making

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23650143
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo

Principal Investigator

IMOTO Seiya  東京大学, 医科学研究所, 准教授 (10345027)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2013
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Keywords感染症シミュレーション / 予測モデル / エージェントベースシミュレーション / 予防 / 感染症拡大の数理モデル / マクロシミュレーション / エージェントシミュレーション / ジョイントモデル / 数理モデル / インフルエンザ / パンデミック
Research Abstract

Like Tokyo, we constructed virtual city including five areas on computer and 1.2 million residents, which are categorized into three attributes, company employees, students and non-workers, lives there. An agent-based simulation model was established to simulate epidemic at schools, companies or stores. We tuned the parameters in the simulation model so that the infectious rate becomes 30% and performed three types of vaccine deriver strategies; priority to company workers, people in house or random deriver. As the result, priority to company workers is the most effective.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (11 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (8 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 2 results) Presentation (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] Cost-effective length and timing of school closure during an influenza pandemic depend on the severity2014

    • Author(s)
      H. Nishiura, K. Ejima, K. Mizumoto, S. Nakaoka, H. Inaba, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, M.M. Saito
    • Journal Title

      Theoretical Biology and Medical Modelling

      Volume: 11 Pages: 5-5

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      M.M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, H. Sato, H. Nakada, M. Kami, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      Mathematical Biosciences

      Volume: 246(1) Pages: 47-54

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Enhancement of collective immunity by selective vaccination against emerging influenza pandemic2013

    • Author(s)
      M.M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, M. Tsubokura, M. Kami, H. Nakada, H. Sato, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 8(9)

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Saito MM, Imoto S, Yamaguchi R, Sato H, Nakada H, Kami M, Miyano S, Higuchi T.
    • Journal Title

      Math Biosci.

      Volume: 246 Issue: 1 Pages: 47-54

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.mbs.2013.08.009

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Enhancement of Collective Immunity in Tokyo Metropolitan Area by Selective Vaccination against an Emerging Influenza Pandemic2013

    • Author(s)
      Masaya M. Saito mail, Seiya Imoto, Rui Yamaguchi, Masaharu Tsubokura, Masahiro Kami, Haruka Nakada, Hiroki Sato, Satoru Miyano, Tomoyuki Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      PLoS ONE

      Volume: 8 Issue: 9 Pages: 1-1

    • DOI

      10.1371/journal.pone.0072866

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Parallel agent-based simulator for inuenza pandemic, Proc. DOCMAS, Lecture Note in Computer Science2012

    • Author(s)
      M.M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      Springer-Verlag

      Volume: 7068 Pages: 361-370

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Identifiability of local transmissibility parameters in agent-based pandemic simulation2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      Proc. 14th International Conference on Information FUSION

      Pages: 2466-2471

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report 2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Parallel agent-based simulator for inuenza pandemic2012

    • Author(s)
      M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Journal Title

      Lecture Note in Computer Science

      Volume: 7068 Pages: 361-370

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] インフルエンザ介入政策における集団免疫を高めるワクチン接種対象群の選択2012

    • Author(s)
      斎藤正也、井元清哉、山口類、坪倉正治、上昌広、中田はる佳、佐藤弘樹、宮野悟、樋口知之
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation of macroscopic parameter in agent-based pandemic simulation2011

    • Author(s)
      M. Saito, S. Imoto, R. Yamaguchi, S. Miyano, T. Higuchi
    • Organizer
      13th International Conference on Information Fusion
    • Place of Presentation
      シカゴ、米国
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] インフルエンザ介入政策における集団免疫を高めるワクチン接種対象群の選択

    • Author(s)
      斎藤正也, 井元清哉, 山口類, 坪倉正治, 上昌広, 中田はる佳, 佐藤弘樹, 宮野悟, 樋口知之
    • Organizer
      2012統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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