| Project/Area Number |
23651153
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Challenging Exploratory Research
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Social systems engineering/Safety system
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| Research Institution | University of Tsukuba |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
KOBAYASHI Takafumi 東京工業大学, 情報理工学(系), 研究科 (90466657)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2012
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | 選挙制度 / 世代別選挙区 / 中位投票理論 / 人口ピラミッド / 選挙区広域化 / 選挙区 / 投票年齢引き下げ / 総合計画 / インフラ過剰供給 / 東日本大震災 / 数理モデル / コーホート変化率法 / 人口流出 |
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| Research Abstract |
More correct population projection of municipality master-plan has been important. We analyze 112 population projections of municipality master-plan in three North Kanto prefectures (Ibaraki, Gunma, Tochigi) by comparing with the populations estimated by National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. There are three main findings. The first one is to show that 4% is overestimated about the whole of population projection of 112 municipality master-plan’s comparing with estimated population of municipality. The second is to demonstrate that 5% is overestimated about the amount of population projection of each prefecture comparing with estimated population of prefecture. Finally, small municipalities have the trend of overestimatedpopulation projection. In the stricken area of the Great East Japan Earthquake, emigration has occurred due to housing damage, industrial damage, and damage caused by rumors. It is expected that the gap in the decrease in population and aging has expanded. The degree of acceleration of the decrease in population and aging has been measured by performing and comparing future population estimates before and after the Great East Japan Earthquake through a Cohort component method.
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