ライフサイクルの中における退職計画の国際比較研究

• Project/Area Number: 23730272
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• Principal Investigator: PFAU Wade D 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 准教授 (00377128)
• Project Period (FY): 2011 – 2013
• Project Status: Discontinued (Fiscal Year 2011)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
• Keywords: 退職 / 計画 / 引出 / 年金 / 貯蓄 / 最適化 / retirement / planning / lifecycle / withdrawals / savings / annuities / finance

Research Abstract

2012年度は引続き計画通り、2012年度と2013年度の要素を組合せた研究を行い、2012年度中に研究論文を6本出版した。安全な貯蓄率についての国際的視点に係る論文で、退職後の貯蓄率に係る研究計画の内、2012年度分を果たしたといえる。ここでは19の先進国市場の貯蓄者を対象に、過去の重複する複数の期間について、最悪の事態想定下での退職所得目標の達成に必要な貯蓄率をシミュレーションした。基本的に労働者は30年掛けて貯蓄し、その後30年に渡る退職生活中のインフレ調整を含め退職前の総収入の50％を賄う。これに更に公的年金が加算され、最悪の事態下の貯蓄率は国によって16.3％から74.3％の間に分布している。
他の研究論文は2013年度の目標に向けて進めており、固定年金及び変動年金といった様々な収入ツールを使って退職所得に係る研究を行うため、より完成度の高い枠組みの導入を目指している。このプロジェクトは「Retirement Management Journal」に掲載された論文2本と、「Journal of Financial Planning」に掲載された退職所得のための効率的フロンティアに係る論文を成果に持ち、これらの論文では、各種の退職所得戦略から選択する上で必要な新たな評価の枠組みの初歩的段階を紹介し、調査では以下8つの退職所得戦略を対象にした。（1）一定インフレ調整型引出額、（2）残余財産の一定引出率、（3）残りの平均寿命に基づく引出率、（4）より積極的なハイブリッド引出率、（5）インフレ調整型及び（6）固定一時払い保険料即時年金、（7）脱退給付の追加条項付き保証型生活向け変動年金、（8）基本的ニーズを満たすための最低ラインを年金化し残余資産のハイブリッド引出率を利用する戦略。これら8つの戦略について、6種類の退職生活の効果指標を用い30年間の退職生活に渡って分析する。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] A Broader Framework for Determining an Efficient Frontier for Retirement Income (2013)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 26 Pages: 44-51
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Choosing a Retirement Income Strategy: A New Evaluation Framework (2012)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Journal Title: Retirement Management Journal Volume: 2 Pages: 23-32
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Choosing a Retirement Income Strategy: Outcome Measures and Best Practices (2012)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Journal Title: Retirement Management Journal Volume: 2 Pages: 33-34
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] An International Perspective on ‘Safe’ Savings Rates for Retirement (2012)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ、 バユ カリアスタント
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Service Professionals Volume: 66 Pages: 62-71
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Long-Term Investors and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation (2012)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Journal Title: Applied Financial Economics Volume: 22 Pages: 1343-1353
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Safe Withdrawal Rates, Savings Rates, and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation (2012)
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 25 Pages: 34-40
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Simulating the Impacts of Cash Transfers on Poverty and School Attendance: The Case of Cambodia (2012)
  • Author(s): Meng, C., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Journal of Family and Economic Issues Volume: forthcoming
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Would Emerging Market Pension Funds Benefit from International Diversification: Investigating Wealth Accumulations for Pension Participants (2012)
  • Author(s): Kumara, A. S., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Annals of Finance Volume: forthcoming
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Long-Term Investors and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation (2012)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Applied Financial Economics Volume: forthcoming
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Safe Withdrawal Rates, Savings Rates, and Valuation-Based Asset Allocation (2012)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: forthcoming
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Reforming Pension Funds in Sri Lanka: International Diversification and the Employees' Provident Fund (2012)
  • Author(s): Kumara, A. S., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Australian Economic Papers Volume: 51 Pages: 23-37
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Spending Flexibility and Safe Withdrawal Rates (2012)
  • Author(s): Finke, M., W. D. Pfau, and D. Williams
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 25 Pages: 44-51
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Capital Market Expectations, Asset Allocation, and Safe Withdrawal Rates (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 25 Pages: 36-43
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Retirement Savings Guidelines for Residents of Emerging Market Countries (2011)
  • Author(s): Meng, C., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Pensions: An International Journal Volume: 16 Pages: 256-265
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Impact of Cash Transfer Programs on School Attendance and Child Poverty: An Ex-ante Simulation for Sri Lanka (2011)
  • Author(s): Kumara, A. S., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Journal of Development Studies Volume: 47 Pages: 1699-1720
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Getting on Track for a Sustainable Retirement: A Reality Check on Savings and Work (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 24 Pages: 38-45
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Retirement Withdrawal Rates and Portfolio Success Rates: What Can the Historical Record Teach Us (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Retirement Management Journal Volume: 1 Pages: 49-55
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Emerging Market Pension Funds and International Diversification (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Developing Areas Volume: 45 Pages: 1-17
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Nearly Optimal Asset Allocations in Retiremen (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 24 Pages: 38-45
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Can We Predict the Sustainable Withdrawal Rate for New Retirees? (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 24 Pages: 40-47
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Safe Withdrawal Rates from Retirement Savings for Residents of Emerging Market Countries (2011)
  • Author(s): Meng, C., and W. D. Pfau
  • Journal Title: Journal of Personal Finance Volume: 10 Pages: 87-108
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] A Stochastic Forecast Model for Japan’s Population (2011)
  • Author(s): Okita, Y., W. D. Pfau, and L. T. Giang
  • Journal Title: The Japanese Economy Volume: 38 Pages: 19-44
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Safe Savings Rates: A New Approach to Retirement Planning over the Lifecycle (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Financial Planning Volume: 24 Pages: 42-50
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] The Portfolio Size Effect and Lifecycle Asset Allocation Funds: A Different Perspective (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D
  • Journal Title: Journal of Portfolio Management Volume: 37 Pages: 44-53
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Groups Excluded from ‘Representative’ Household Surveys: An Analysis Based on Remittances Sent and Received in Vietnam (2011)
  • Author(s): Pfau, W. D., and L. T. Giang
  • Journal Title: ASEAN Economic Bulletin Volume: 28 Pages: 68-73
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Retirement Planning over the Lifecycle (2012)
  • Author(s): Wade Pfau
  • Organizer: California Lutheran University Seminar Series(招待講演)
  • Place of Presentation: California Lutheran University
• [Presentation] An Efficient Frontier for Retirement Income
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Organizer: IFID Centre Annual Conference 2012
  • Place of Presentation: トロントフィールズインスティチュート大学
• [Presentation] Cutting Edge Strategies: Safe Withdrawal Rates
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Organizer: ＡＩＣＰＡ
  • Place of Presentation: アリアリゾート
• [Presentation] Two Schools of Thought on Retirement Income
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Organizer: FPA Oregon and SW Washington Mid-Winter Symposium
  • Place of Presentation: オレゴン、ポートランド
• [Presentation] An Efficient Frontier for Retirement Income
  • Author(s): ウェイド ファウ
  • Organizer: FPA Puget Sound Annual Symposium
  • Place of Presentation: シアトル・ワシントン・コンファレンスホール
• [Remarks] Wade Pfau's Retirement Reseacher
  • URL: http://www.retirementresearcher.com
• [Remarks] Retirement Researcher Blog
  • URL: http://www.wpfau.blogspot.com