Expectation index anomaly and macroeconomics
| Project/Area Number |
23730289
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Kyoto Sangyo University |
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Principal Investigator |
TERAI Akira 京都産業大学, 経済学部, 准教授 (20387989)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2011 – 2013
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | 日本経済 / 経済政策 / 経済事情 / 経済理論 / 経済統計学 / マクロ経済学 / 期待インフレ率 / 選挙制度 |
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| Research Abstract |
In this research, I performed a theory and empirical analysis of inflation expectation. First, I used Monte Carlo simulation to compute the results the candidates' preferences bring in an election system. I found that in a single-seat constituency system, an inflated number of seats are won compared to that implied by the cube rule. In the proportional representation system, approval ratings are fairly reflected in the number of seats won. Second, under the assumption that the respondent's distribution of inflation expectation has come from "mixture distribution," I developed the method to generate the inflation expectation series. I found that the series is superior to the existing one with respect to rationality.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(6 results)
