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Numerical Analysis on Fiscal Sustainability in Japan

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23730298
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Public finance/Monetary economics
Research InstitutionHiroshima University

Principal Investigator

ARAI Real  広島大学, 社会(科)学研究科, 特任助教 (70590462)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2013
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥390,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥90,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Keywords財政の維持可能性 / 財政学 / 財政政策 / マクロ経済 / 日本財政 / 公債 / 財政の持続可能性 / 経済成長 / 金融市場の不完全性
Research Abstract

We obtain two findings through quantitative analyses. First, the primary deficit cannot be sustained unless the rate of economic growth is unrealistically high, which implies that Japan's government needs to achieve a positive primary balance in the long run. Second, even if sufficient size of primary surplus can be maintained for fiscal sustainability, the amount of physical capital in Japan may substantially decline.
We also investigate effects of public debt and fiscal policy under the situations in which government expenditure is productive or a financial market is imperfect. These studies imply that such factors may have important roles on analysis of Japan's fiscal stance in future. We should consider them to investigate the future fiscal stance.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2014 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 6 results) Presentation (10 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] A Numerical Analysis of Japan's Fiscal Sustainability in a Simple OLG Model2014

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real and Nakazawa Masahiko
    • Journal Title

      Applied Economics Letters

      Volume: (印刷中(掲載受諾済))

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Numerical Analysis of Japan's Fiscal Sustainability in a Simple OLG Model2014

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real and Nakazawa, Masahiko
    • Journal Title

      Applied Economics Letters

      Volume: 印刷中

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Numerical Evaluation of the Sustainable Size of the Primary Deficit in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real and Ueda Junji
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: Vol.30 Pages: 59-75

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Numerical Evaluation of the Sustainable Size of the Primary Deficit in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real and Ueda, Junji
    • Journal Title

      Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

      Volume: 30 Pages: 59-75

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jjie.2013.10.003

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real and Ueda, Junji
    • Journal Title

      PRI Discussion Paper Series

      Volume: 12A-06

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability2011

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Journal Title

      FinanzArchiv (Public Finance Analysis)

      Volume: Vol.67, No.4 Pages: 327-351

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability2011

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real
    • Journal Title

      FinanzArchiv (Public Finance Analysis)

      Volume: Vol. 67 Issue: 4 Pages: 327-351

    • DOI

      10.1628/001522111x614150

    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Organizer
      The 69th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Hotel Villa Diodoro, Italy
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-23
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?2013

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Organizer
      Singapore Economic Review Conference 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Mandarin Orchard Singapore, Singapore
    • Year and Date
      2013-08-07
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan2013

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Keio University, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2013-05-15
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Organizer
      2012年日本財政学会
    • Place of Presentation
      淡路夢舞台国際会議場
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-28
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan2012

    • Author(s)
      Arai Real
    • Organizer
      2012年日本経済学会秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      九州産業大学 (一般報告)
    • Year and Date
      2012-10-08
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real
    • Organizer
      Singapore Economic Review Conference 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Mandarin Orchard Singapore, Singapore
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real
    • Organizer
      The 69th Annual Congress of the International Institute of Public Finance
    • Place of Presentation
      Hotel Villa Diodoro, Italy
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan

    • Author(s)
      新居 理有
    • Organizer
      2012年日本経済学会秋季大会(一般報告)
    • Place of Presentation
      九州産業大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan

    • Author(s)
      新居 理有
    • Organizer
      2012年日本財政学会
    • Place of Presentation
      淡路夢舞台国際会議場
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan

    • Author(s)
      Arai, Real
    • Organizer
      Western Economic Association International 10th Biennial Pacific Rim Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Keio University, Japan
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 研究代表者のホームページ: ホームページ等

    • URL

      http://real-a.net

    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] 略歴・研究について(研究代表者のサイト)

    • URL

      http://real-a.net/rs/rs.html

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 研究について (研究代表者のホームページ内)

    • URL

      http://real-a.net/rs/rs.html#myrs

    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report

URL: 

Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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