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An analysis of optimistic bias in finanial analysts Forecasts

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23730396
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Business administration
Research InstitutionTezukayama University

Principal Investigator

KONDO Emi  帝塚山大学, 経営学部, 講師 (50581485)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2013)
Budget Amount *help
¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥60,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Keywordsアナリスト / 株式レーティング / アナリスト予想 / 利益相反 / 楽観的バイアス / セルサイド・アナリスト / アナリスト・レポート / 証券会社 / 株式推奨 / 予想利益 / 幹事会社 / アンダーライター / バイアス
Research Abstract

In this reseach,I examine the growing empirical literature on the analysts' forecasts and conflicts of interest in the U.S.Three reasons are often cited for analyst optimism.First, prior research argues that analysts positively bias their forecasts and recommendations to stay on friendly terms with firm management.Second,it is also argued that analysts who work for integrated investment banking houses could come under implicit pressure to publish more favorable research about their employers' current or potential clients to help boost investment banking fee revenue. Third, analysts could come under pressure to help generate brokerage commissions, which provides incentives for analysts to present positively biased opinions.
Despite these incentives to bias their forecasts, analysts are also concerned about their career advancement that can be facilitated by acquiring a higher reputation through more accurate forecasts. Analysts appear to face a dilemma caused by different incentives.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2013 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (4 results)

All 2014 Other

All Journal Article (1 results) Presentation (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] アナリストの利益相反と予想特性に関するレビュー2014

    • Author(s)
      近藤江美
    • Journal Title

      帝塚山経済・経営論集

      Volume: 第24号 Pages: 53-82

    • NAID

      110009684666

    • URL

      http://ci.nii.ac.jp/naid/110009684666

    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] アナリストの利益相反と予想特性-先行研究からの知見-2014

    • Author(s)
      近藤江美
    • Organizer
      帝塚山大学経済経営研究所ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      帝塚山大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-02-21
    • Related Report
      2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] アナリストの利益相反と予想特性に関するレビュー2014

    • Author(s)
      近藤江美
    • Organizer
      実証会計学ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      関西大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-02-01
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report 2013 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] アナリストの利益相反と予想特性-先行研究からの知見-

    • Author(s)
      近藤江美
    • Organizer
      帝塚山大学経済経営研究所経営学ワークショップ
    • Place of Presentation
      帝塚山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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