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Model and inference of extreme synchrony in collective behavior of agents

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23760074
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Engineering fundamentals
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

SATO Aki-hiro  京都大学, 大学院・情報学研究科, 助教 (50335204)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥3,120,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥720,000)
Keywords経済物理学 / データ科学 / 社会経済システム / エージェント / 大規模同期現象 / 外国為替市場 / 極値分布 / 時系列分断 / 国際情報交換 / 最尤法 / 稀少頻度事象 / 観測とデータ分析 / 国際情報交流 / ドイツ、ポーランド、スイス
Research Abstract

This study proposes a method to quantify the structure of a bipartite graph with networkentropy from a statistical-physical point of view. The network entropy of a bipartite graph with random links is computed from numerical simulation. As an applic ation of the proposed method to analyze collective behavior, the affairs in which participants quote and trade in the foreign exchange market are quantified by using the data during the period from June 2007 to November 2012 (about 580,000,000 records with 1 -second resolution). The network entropy per node is found to correspond to the macroeconomic situation. A finite mixture of Gumbel distributions is used to fit with the empirical distribution for the minimum values of network entropy per node in each week. The mixture of Gumbel distributions with parameter estimates by segmentation procedure is verified by both Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Anderson-Dearling tests. The finite mixtures of Gumbel distributions which extrapolate the empirical probability of extreme events have an explanatory power with a statistically significant level.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (25 results)

All 2013 2012 2011 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) Presentation (19 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Segmentation analysis of multivariate time series of foreign exchange rates2013

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato, Zdzislaw Burda
    • Journal Title

      日本金融・証券計量・工学学会 冬季大会予稿集

      Volume: JAFEE2012 Pages: 122-131

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market: Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix2012

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato, Takaki Hayashi, Janusz A. Holyst
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination

      Volume: Vol. 7 Issue: 2 Pages: 167-179

    • DOI

      10.1007/s11403-012-0089-2

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report 2012 Final Research Report
  • [Journal Article] 外国為替市場における参加者行動の網羅的計量2012

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Journal Title

      日本行動計量学会第40回大会抄録集

      Volume: 40

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Inference of Extreme Synchrony with an Entropy Measure on a Bipartite Network

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato
    • Journal Title

      http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4860

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 高解像度外国為替市場データを用いた市場状態推定とリスク計量2013

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      高解像度外国為替市場データを用いた市場状態推定とリスク計量
    • URL

      http://www-csfi.sigmath.es.osaka-u.ac.jp/structure/workshop201303/16_30.pdf

    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Year and Date
      2013-03-29
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場のゆらぎのスケーリング則と相関分析2013

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋, J.A. Holyst, 林高樹
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「経済物理学とその周辺」
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所
    • Year and Date
      2013-03-15
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Segmentation Analysis of Multivariate Time Series of Foreign Exchange Rates2013

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato and Zdzislaw Burda
    • Organizer
      JAFEE2012 冬季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学 東京キャンパス, 東京
    • Year and Date
      2013-01-25
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場のゆらぎのスケーリング則と相関分析2013

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋, Janusz A. Holyst,林高樹
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「経済物理学とその周辺」
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所, 東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 高解像度外国為替市場データを用いた市場状態推定とリスク計量2013

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      数学・数理科学と諸科学・産業との協働によるイノベーション創出のための研究促進プログラム「金融リスクの計測・管理・制御に纏わる数理」
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学豊中キャンパス, 豊中
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Segmentation Analysis of Multivariate Time Series of Foreign Exchange Rates2013

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato and Zdzislaw Burda
    • Organizer
      JAFEE2012冬季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      筑波大学 東京キャンパス, 東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における大規模同期現象の観測と発生確率の外挿2012

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会 2012 年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      横浜国立大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-20
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における参加者行動の網羅的計量2012

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      動計量学会第40 会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      新潟県立大学
    • Year and Date
      2012-09-14
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における大規模同期現象の観測と推計2012

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所共同研究集会「経済物理学とその周辺」
    • URL

      http://www.canon-igs.org/event/report/report_120827/pdf/120827_sato_presentation.pdf

    • Place of Presentation
      キヤノングローバル戦略研究所
    • Year and Date
      2012-08-27
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Comprehensive Analysis of Market Conditions in the Foreign Exchange Market:Fluctuation Scaling and Variance-Covariance Matrix2012

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato and Janusz A. Holyst
    • Organizer
      Spring Meeting of German Physical Society (DPG) 2012
    • Place of Presentation
      Berlin Technical University, Berlin, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2012-03-26
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] "外国為替市場における大規模同期現象の観測と推計2012

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所研究集会「経済物理学とその周辺」
    • Place of Presentation
      キヤノングローバル戦略研究所, 東京
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における市場参加者の大規模同期現象のモデルと計量2011

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋 , 林高樹,Janusz A. HOLYST
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会 2011 年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      富山大学
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-22
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] エントロピーを用いた二部グラフ構造の定量化2011

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      経済物理学とその周辺研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所
    • Year and Date
      2011-09-09
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Mixture of compounded Poisson processes as a model of tick-by-tick foreign exchange market data and its parameter estimation procedure2011

    • Author(s)
      Hiroshi KAJIKAWA, Aki-Hiro SATO
    • Organizer
      ESHA/WEHIA 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      Universita Politecnica delle Marche, Ancona, ITALY
    • Year and Date
      2011-06-23
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Quantification of Bipartite Network Structure with Entropy2011

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro SATO
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems - 2011
    • Place of Presentation
      ETH Zurich, Zurich, SWITZERLAND
    • Year and Date
      2011-06-20
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] Quantification of Bipartite Network Structure with Entropy2011

    • Author(s)
      Aki-Hiro Sato
    • Organizer
      International Workshop on Coping with Crises in Complex Socio-Economic Systems
    • Place of Presentation
      スイス連邦工科大学チューリッヒ校、スイス
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] エントロピーを用いた二部グラフ構造の定量化2011

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      統計数理研究所「経済物理学とその周辺」研究会
    • Place of Presentation
      統計数理研究所, 東京
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における市場参加者の大規模同期現象のモデルと推計2011

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋, 林高樹, Janusz A. Holyst
    • Organizer
      日本物理学会201年秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      富山大学, 富山
    • Related Report
      2011 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 外国為替市場における参加者行動の網羅的計量

    • Author(s)
      佐藤彰洋
    • Organizer
      行動計量学会第40会大会
    • Place of Presentation
      新潟県立大学, 新潟
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://amech.amp.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~aki/wiki/index.php?23760074

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Remarks] エージェント集団行動の大規模同期現象のモデルと推計

    • URL

      http://amech.amp.i.kyoto-u.ac.jp/~aki/wiki/index.php?23760074

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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