Projection of changes in coastal disaster risk in the coastal megacities using climate change projections

• Project/Area Number: 23760461
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Research Field: Hydraulic engineering
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: YASUDA Tomohiro 京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (60378916)
• Project Period (FY): 2011 – 2012
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
• Keywords: 高潮 / 気候変動 / 全球気候モデル(GCM) / 将来気候 / 台風 / 海岸災害リスク / GCM / 不確実性 / 非構造格子 / 全球気候モデル / 熱帯低気圧（台風） / 日本沿岸

Research Abstract

気象研究所の超高解像度全球気候モデルGCMの2次元気象場データを用いて、直接高潮シミュレーションをした。熱帯低気圧の存在期間の海面気圧および海上風を駆動力として与えた。高潮計算に用いた台風は北西太平洋領域を通過したものとした。台風ごとの最大高潮偏差の計算結果を極大値資料とし、極値統計解析を行った。将来気候下における100年に1度の高潮が現在気候に比べて増大すること、台風強度変化によって一様に増大するのではなく、エリア依存性があることを明らかにした。さらに、高潮モデル自体が内包する不確実性を減らすのに必要な要件を整理することができた。

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Uncertainty of Possible Maximum Storm Surge Projection Associated with Climate Change (2012)
  • Author(s): 林 祐太・安田誠宏・森 信人・中條壮大・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 68 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1231-I_1235
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.68.I_1231
  • NAID: 130004550692
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Multi-Model Ensemble Projection of Future Tropical Cyclone Characteristics due to Global Climate Change (2012)
  • Author(s): 森 信人・村上裕之・志村智也・中條壮大・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 68 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1251-I_1255
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.68.I_1251
  • NAID: 130004550696
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Optimum Open Boundary Conditions in Coupled Prediction Model of Tide, Wave and Surge (2011)
  • Author(s): 金 洙列・松見吉晴・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇・水沼裕介
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: I_326-I_330
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.67.I_326
  • NAID: 130004550488
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Storm Surge Simulation due to Isewan Typhoon using Detailed Meteorological Re-analysis Data (2011)
  • Author(s): 間瀬肇・武藤遼太・森信人・金洙列・安田誠宏・林祐太
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: I_401-I_405
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.67.I_401
  • NAID: 130004550504
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Evaluation of Storm Surge Risk Directly Based on Climate Change Projection (2011)
  • Author(s): 安田誠宏・中條壮大・金洙列・森信人・間瀬肇・Kevin Horsburgh
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1171-I_1175
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.67.I_1171
  • NAID: 130004550398
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Uncertainty of Future Storm Surge Projection due to Climate Change - A Case Study in the Tokyo Bay - (2011)
  • Author(s): 林祐太・安田誠宏・森信人・中條壮大・間瀬肇・奥勇一郎
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1181-I_1185
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.67.I_1181
  • NAID: 130004550400
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Multi-Model Ensemble Projection of Coastal Environment under a Global Warming Scenario (2011)
  • Author(s): 森 信人・志村智也・中條壮大・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. B2 (Coastal Engineering) Volume: 67 Issue: 2 Pages: I_1191-I_1195
  • DOI: 10.2208/kaigan.67.I_1191
  • NAID: 130004550402
  • ISSN: 1883-8944, 1884-2399
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 気候変動予測実験出力を直接用いた高潮リスクの評価 (2011)
  • Author(s): 安田誠宏・中條壮大・金 洙列・森 信人・間瀬 肇・Kevin Horsburgh
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B2（海岸工学） Volume: Vol.67, No.2
  • NAID: 40019131702
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 気候変動に伴う将来高潮予測の不確実性－東京湾をケーススタディーとして－ (2011)
  • Author(s): 林 祐太・安田誠宏・森 信人・中條壮大・間瀬 肇・奥 勇一郎
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B2（海岸工学） Volume: Vol.67, No.2
  • NAID: 40019131749
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 詳細気象予測値を用いた伊勢湾台風高潮の再現実験 (2011)
  • Author(s): 間瀬 肇・武藤遼太・森 信人・金 洙列・安田誠宏・林 祐太
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B2（海岸工学） Volume: Vol.67, No.2
  • NAID: 130004550504
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] 海浜流推算における潮汐・波浪・高潮結合モデルの開境界条件に関する研究 (2011)
  • Author(s): 金 洙列・松見吉晴・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇・水沼裕介
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B2（海岸工学） Volume: Vol.67, No.2
  • NAID: 130004550488
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] マルチモデルアンサンブルに基づく地球温暖化に伴う沿岸外力の将来変化予測 (2011)
  • Author(s): 森 信人・志村智也・中條壮大・安田誠宏・間瀬 肇
  • Journal Title: 土木学会論文集B2（海岸工学） Volume: Vol.67, No.2
  • NAID: 130004550402
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] Projection of Future Storm Surge due to Climate Change and Its Uncertainty - A Case Study in the Tokyo Bay (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., Mori, N., Nakajo, S. and Mase, H., Hayashi, Y. and Oku, Y
  • Organizer: Proc. of 6th Int. Conf. on Asian and Pacific Coasts (APAC 2011)
  • Place of Presentation: Hong Kong, China
  • Year and Date: 2011-12-15
• [Presentation] Future Typhoon Projection using Stochastic Typhoon Model under Global Climate Change (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Mase, H., Hayashi, Y. and Kunitomi, S
  • Organizer: Proc. 11th Int. Conf. on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
  • Place of Presentation: Zurich, Switzerland
  • Year and Date: 2011-08-03
• [Presentation] Future Typhoon Projection using Stochastic Typhoon Model under Global Climate Change (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., Nakajo, S., Mori, N., Mase, H., Hayashi, Y. and Kunitomi, S.
  • Organizer: Proc. 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP 2011)
  • Place of Presentation: Zurich, Switzerland
• [Presentation] Projection of Future Storm Surge due to Climate Change and Its Uncertainty - A Case Study in the Tokyo Bay (2011)
  • Author(s): Yasuda, T., Mori, N., Nakajo, S. and Mase, H., Hayashi, Y. and Oku, Y.
  • Organizer: Proc. of 6th Int. Conf. on Asian and Pacific Coasts (APAC 2011)
  • Place of Presentation: Hong Kong