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Reservoir operation considering long-term ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23760462
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Research Field Hydraulic engineering
Research InstitutionKyoto University

Principal Investigator

NOHARA Daisuke  京都大学, 防災研究所, 助教 (00452326)

Project Period (FY) 2011 – 2012
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
Budget Amount *help
¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywords水資源工学 / 予測情報の活用 / アンサンブル予測情報 / 貯水池操作 / 渇水 / 動的計画法
Research Abstract

A reservoir operation method considering long-term ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts were developed. The method to improve the effectiveness of real-time reservoir operation was investigated and clarified considering the monthly ensemble forecast of precipitation provided by Japan Meteorological Agency. Moreover, a stochastic impact assessment model of stochastic hydro-meteorological predictions, which have a similar theoretical basis with ensemble predictions, was developed by incorporating an artificial generation method of stochastic hydro-meteorological predictions with arbitrary degrees of uncertainty, in order to contribute to efficient design of reservoir operation considering the ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasts.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2012 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2011 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (7 results)

All 2013 2012 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results) Presentation (2 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] Impact Analysis of Stochastic Inflow Prediction with Reliability and Discrimination Indices on Long-term Reservoir Operation2013

    • Author(s)
      Daisuke Nohara
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Hydroinformatics

      Volume: -

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact analysis of long-term stochastic inflow prediction and its uncertainty on reservoir operation during drought situation2013

    • Author(s)
      Daisuke Nohara
    • Journal Title

      IAHS Redbook

      Volume: 362

    • NAID

      120005373005

    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact analysis of long-term stochastic inflow prediction and its uncertainty on reservoir operation during drought situation

    • Author(s)
      Nohara, D., Miki, H. and Hori, T
    • Journal Title

      IAHS Redbook

      Volume: 362

    • NAID

      120005373005

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Impact analysis of stochastic inflow prediction with reliability and discrimination indices on long-term reservoir operation

    • Author(s)
      Nohara, D. and Hori, T
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Hydroinformatics

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Impact analysis of reliability and discriminability index of stochastic inflow prediction and its application to longterm reservoir operation2012

    • Author(s)
      Nohara, D. and Hori, T
    • Organizer
      10thInternational Conference on Hydroinformatics
    • Place of Presentation
      Hambrug, Germany
    • Year and Date
      2012-07-18
    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report
  • [Presentation] IMPACT ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY AND DISCRIMINABILITY INDEX OF STOCHASTIC INFLOW PREDICTION AND ITS APPLICATION TO LONG-TERM RESERVOIR OPERATION2012

    • Author(s)
      Daisuke Nohara
    • Organizer
      10th International Conference on Hydroinformatics
    • Place of Presentation
      Hamburg
    • Related Report
      2012 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks]

    • URL

      http://gwd.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp/

    • Related Report
      2012 Final Research Report

URL: 

Published: 2011-08-05   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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