Mathematical and epidemiological analysis and prediction of mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma

• Project/Area Number: 23890129
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• Allocation Type: Single-year Grants
• Research Field: Public health/Health science
• Research Institution: Hiroshima University
• Principal Investigator: AKITA Tomoyuki 広島大学, 大学院・医歯薬保健学研究院, 特任助教 (80609925)
• Project Period (FY): 2011 – 2012
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2012)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,470,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥570,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000); Fiscal Year 2011: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 肝癌 / 年齢・時代・コホートモデル / 肝炎ウイルス / 数理疫学 / 肝炎ウイルスキャリア率

Research Abstract

We analyzed data of sex- and age-specific mortality due to HCC using mathematical and epidemiological models (an age-period-cohort model and an age-period-carrier rate model). These models had a high performance in reproducing HCC mortality (R2>0.99). However, predicted mortality in 2010 using a mortality data before 1990 had gap with observed mortality because of reflection of treatment effects.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Evaluation of strategies for control and prevention of pandemic influenza (H1N1pdm) in Japanese children attending school in rural town Simulation using mathematical models (2013)
  • Author(s): Sato Tomoki, Akita Tomoyuki, Tanaka Junko
  • Journal Title: 日本公衆衛生雑誌 Volume: 60(4) Pages: 204-211
  • NAID: 10031168561
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Validation and limitation of age-period-cohort (APC) model in simulating mortality due to hepatocellular carcinoma from 1940 to 2010 in Japan
  • Author(s): Akita Tomoyuki, Ohisa Masayuki, Kimura Yuki, Fujimoto Mayumi, Miyakawa Yuzo, Tanaka Junko
  • Journal Title: Hepatology Research Volume: (accepted)
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] H1N1pdm(2009)流行時の予防行動と罹患に関する大規模調査からみた感染規模に関する数理疫学的検討 (2013)
  • Author(s): 佐藤友紀、 秋田智之、松岡俊彦、桑原正雄、田中純子
  • Organizer: 第23回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 大阪
  • Year and Date: 2013-01-26
• [Presentation] 有限状態マルコフ連鎖モデルにおける推定確率推移行列を用いた予測値の信頼区間 (2012)
  • Author(s): 秋田智之、大久真幸、坂宗和明、田中純子
  • Organizer: 2012 年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道
  • Year and Date: 2012-09-10
• [Presentation] Etiological-based mathematical model for hepatocellular carcinoma mortality (2012)
  • Author(s): Akita Tomoyuki, Ohisa Masayuki, Tanaka Junko
  • Organizer: 26th International Biometric Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Kobe
  • Year and Date: 2012-08-27
• [Presentation] 肝癌死亡推移の予測のための数理疫学モデルの構築-出生年別キャリア率と肝癌死亡との関連性について- (2012)
  • Author(s): 田中純子、 秋田智之、佐藤友紀、松尾順子、片山惠子
  • Organizer: 第22回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2012-01-27
• [Presentation] 肝がん死亡推移予測のための数理疫学的モデルの構築-出生年別キャリア率と肝癌死亡との関連性について- (2012)
  • Author(s): 田中純子
  • Organizer: 第22回日本疫学会学術総会
  • Place of Presentation: 東京
  • Year and Date: 2012-01-27
• [Presentation] 隔離された小地域における新型インフルエンザH1N1pdm 流行動態の感染症モデルを用いた解析 (2011)
  • Author(s): 秋田智之、佐藤友紀、田中純子
  • Organizer: 2011 年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 福岡
  • Year and Date: 2011-09-06
• [Presentation] Evaluation of strategies for pandemic influenza (H1N1) control and prevention in Japan based on a total number survey in a closed area simulated by mathematical models (2011)
  • Author(s): Sato Tomoki, Akita Tomoyuki, Tanaka Junko
  • Organizer: IEA World Congress of Epidemiology
  • Place of Presentation: U.K
  • Year and Date: 2011-08-07
• [Presentation] ETIOLOGICAL-BASED MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA MORTALITY
  • Author(s): Tomoyuki Akita
  • Organizer: 26th International Biometric Conference
  • Place of Presentation: 神戸
• [Presentation] 有限状態マルコフ連鎖モデルにおける推定確率推移行列を用いた予測値の信頼区間
  • Author(s): 秋田智之
  • Organizer: 2012年度統計関連学会連合大会
  • Place of Presentation: 北海道