| Project/Area Number |
23K11510
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 64040:Social-ecological systems-related
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| Research Institution | Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University |
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Principal Investigator |
DIECKMANN Ulf 沖縄科学技術大学院大学, 複雑性科学と進化ユニット, 教授 (00961187)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2023-04-01 – 2026-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000)
Fiscal Year 2025: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,170,000 (Direct Cost: ¥900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥270,000)
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| Keywords | Sustainable management / fish stocks / ecosystem services / Pareto front / fairness / fisheries / sustainability / evolution / socioeconomics / stakeholders |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
The sustainable management of fish stocks providing vital nutrition and other ecosystem services to humankind must account for all fishery impacts. Fishery science is thus in urgent need of extending its focus on fish demography and ecology to previously unaddressed impacts. This project is spearheading two key extensions: evolutionary impact analyses (EvoIAs) and stakeholder satisfaction analyses (SSAs). By enabling predictions of optimal fishing strategies accounting for evolutionary and socioeconomic impacts, sustainable fisheries management can be facilitated worldwide.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
Research achievements have been accomplished in both components of this research project.
First, evolutionary impact analyses are revealing evolutionary vulnerabilities in the growth, maturation, reproduction, and mortality of exploited stocks, to help design fishing strategies minimizing detrimental evolutionary impacts. Based on a global database of calibrations of process-based bioenergetic life-history models and fishing patterns of 40+ exploited fish stocks, evolutionary impacts are being quantified in terms of fisheries-induced selection pressures and other measures.
Second, stakeholder satisfaction analyses are revealing socioeconomic tradeoffs among yield, profit, employment, and stock protection, and among the interests of fishers, retailers, and consumers, to help design fishing strategies minimizing detrimental socioeconomic impacts. Based on two databases of process-based bioenergetic life-history model calibrations, covering ocean-warming effects and econometric assessments for Northeast Arctic cod, socioeconomic impacts are quantified in terms of joint stakeholder satisfaction and other measures.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
Research efforts during this fiscal year have focused on perfecting the parametrizations of the biological models.
For the analyses of evolutionary impacts in 40+ fish stocks, we have enhanced the quality of each stock’s life-history model by consolidating age definitions between stock assessments and our stock models, accounting for the timing of fishing relative to that of the other life-history events, accounting for initial lengths, and using observed maturation data. Moreover, we have developed dynamic stock simulations, incorporated harvest control rules, adopted a scaling interface between each stock’s spawner-recruit model and its life-history model, and conducted viability tests based on the production of spawning-stock biomass per recruit.
For the analyses of stakeholder satisfaction in Northeast Arctic cod, we have consolidated the age definition between stock assessments and our stock model, calibrated the size and temperature dependences of natural mortality, upgraded the modeling of the spawning-ground fishery, and developed the software named ‘libpspm’, a feature-rich numerical package for solving physiologically structured population models.
All model refinements are improving the match between observations and predictions.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
For the analyses of evolutionary impacts in 40+ fish stocks, two papers are in preparation: (1) on a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-induced selection pressures on growth, maturation, and reproduction and (2) on elasticities characterizing how vulnerable fisheries-induced selection pressures are to changes in life-history parameters and how vulnerable these life-history parameters are to changes in ocean temperature.
For the analyses of stakeholder satisfaction in Northeast Arctic cod, four papers are in preparation, with papers 3-5 jointly supported by my KAKENHI Start-Up grant: (3) on the R/C++ package developed for the combined analysis of life-history dynamics and socio-economic dynamics, (4) on how vulnerable biological stock characteristics are to changes in ocean temperature, (5) on how vulnerable socio-economic stock characteristics and the resultant safe operating spaces are to changes in ocean temperature, and (6) on how agreement among diverse ethical fairness concepts helps navigate the Pareto front in this stock’s management.
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