Striking While the Iron Is Cold: Fragility after a Surge of Lumpy Investments

Research Project

Project/Area Number	23K12444
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Review Section	Basic Section 07010:Economic theory-related
Research Institution	The University of Tokyo
Principal Investigator	リーハーンベック東京大学, 大学院経済学研究科(経済学部), 講師 (60973138)
Project Period (FY)	2023-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status	Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help	¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000) Fiscal Year 2024: ¥780,000 (Direct Cost: ¥600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥180,000) Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000)
Keywords	Business cycle / Lumpy investment / Nonlinear dynamics
Outline of Research at the Start	This paper studies how synchronized lumpy investments at the firm level affect the business cycle. After the surge of lumpy investments, productivity-driven recessions are especially severe, and the semi-elasticity of aggregate investment drops significantly due to endogenous state dependence.