Quantifying the Mortality Consequences of Climate Change: A Machine Learning Analysis of Japan in 1972-2019

• Project/Area Number: 23K12463
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Review Section: Basic Section 07040:Economic policy-related
• Research Institution: Hitotsubashi University
• Principal Investigator: Wang Hongming 一橋大学, 社会科学高等研究院, 非常勤研究員 (20867048)
• Project Period (FY): 2023-04-01 – 2025-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000); Fiscal Year 2024: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2023: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
• Keywords: climate change / health

Outline of Research at the Start

The proposed research aims to quantify the mortality consequences of climate change using daily weather variations over a 50-year period in Japan. To account for the complex and non-linear effects of climate on health, the statistical analysis will use machine learning methods such as neural networks to quantify the dynamic climate-mortality relationship based on historic data. Building on the relationship, the research will project future mortality effects under different scenarios of climate change and discuss implications for mitigation policies in high-mortality areas.