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Development of general statistical methods for estimating gust wind speed in different urban morphology and weather conditions based on the Weibull distribution

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23K13454
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Review Section Basic Section 23020:Architectural environment and building equipment-related
Research InstitutionKyushu University

Principal Investigator

WANG WEI  九州大学, 総合理工学研究院, 助教 (20968169)

Project Period (FY) 2023-04-01 – 2026-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2023)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000)
Fiscal Year 2025: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥2,210,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥510,000)
KeywordsExtreme wind speed / Weibull distribution / Gram Charlier series / Urban wind environment / Probability density / Large-eddy simulation / Gust wind speed / Wind environment / Urban morphology / Weather condition
Outline of Research at the Start

The structure and human safety problems related to gusty wind are important issues. This study aims to develop general statistical methods for estimating the gust wind speed based on the Weibull distribution. The methods will be applicable for different urban morphologies and weather conditions.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

Evaluating extreme wind speed in urban areas is important, since strong winds increase the risk of accidents and injuries of pedestrians. Although several statistical methods were developed to estimate extreme wind in previous studies, their robustness and accuracy remain unclear for the applications on the urban wind environment. In this year, the effectiveness of the Weibull distribution (KB, 2W and 3W) method and the Gram Charlier series (GCS) method was validated. The pedestrian-level wind environments of three idealized urban cases and one actual urban case were analyzed. The validation was performed using time-series data from the large-eddy simulations. The adaptive GCS method (GCS-A) and 3W method (the third-order Weibull distribution method) were found to be robust and accurate.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

The gusty wind is very dangerous for structures and pedestrians. This research aims to develop general statistical methods for estimating the gust wind speed based on the Weibull distribution. The methods are expected to be general to urban morphologies and weather conditions. In this year, the applicability of the Weibull distribution (KB, 2W and 3W) method and the Gram Charlier series (GCS) method on idealized and actual urban cases were analyzed. The robustness and accuracy of various statistical methods for estimating the extreme wind speed in urban areas were confirmed. Although there are still some remaining issues, the overall progress of the research has been smooth. Future research will proceed gradually according to the outline plan.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

The Weibull distribution method have been developed based on the assumption that the random process of winds can be described by a particular unimodal PDF. However, these methods are less adaptive to the wind speed probability distribution with bimodal shapes. Moreover, the strict assumptions or requirements in the statistical methods also brought difficulties in the practical applications. Consequently, further research aims to develop general statistical methods based on the Weibull distribution by incorporating the mixture distribution function. In addition, the data-driven approach will be applied to connect the analytical study and practical application to relieve the strict assumptions or requirements in the statistical model.

Report

(1 results)
  • 2023 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (2 results)

All 2023

All Presentation (2 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results)

  • [Presentation] Low-occurrence strong wind speed in idealized building cases: Comparison of estimation methods2023

    • Author(s)
      Wang Wei, Ikegaya Naoki
    • Organizer
      International Conference on Wind Engineering (ICWE16)
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Estimating extreme wind speed at the entire pedestrian level of various building array cases: A comparison of statistical methods2023

    • Author(s)
      王偉、池谷直樹
    • Organizer
      2023年度日本建築学会大会学術講演会
    • Related Report
      2023 Research-status Report

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Published: 2023-04-13   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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