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Comprehensive Research on Patronal Politics: Textual Analysis and Experiments

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23K20581
Project/Area Number (Other) 21H00678 (2021-2023)
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund (2024)
Single-year Grants (2021-2023)
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 06010:Politics-related
Research InstitutionThe University of Tokyo (2022-2024)
Tohoku University (2021)

Principal Investigator

東島 雅昌  東京大学, 社会科学研究所, 准教授 (10756349)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 中井 遼  東京大学, 先端科学技術研究センター, 教授 (10546328)
鳥飼 将雅  大阪大学, 大学院法学研究科, 准教授 (10909972)
矢内 勇生  高知工科大学, 経済・マネジメント学群, 准教授 (50580693)
Project Period (FY) 2021-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
Budget Amount *help
¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥5,720,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,320,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥8,060,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,860,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Keywordsクライアンテリズム / パトロン政治 / 旧共産圏 / 計量テキスト分析 / サーベイ実験 / 権威主義体制 / 中央アジア / 実験
Outline of Research at the Start

新興国において、中央政治家・地方政治家・ビジネスエリートは統治のかたちに影響を及ぼす。政治リーダー(首長)がこれらエリートとの権力 均衡の上にたち、エリートが自らの地盤で自律的権力をもつこともあれば、エリートがリーダーに従属し大衆の支持調達を担うこともある。本 研究では、非公式なリーダー・エリート・大衆関係が重要な旧共産圏に焦点を当て、3者関係の変化が各アクターの行動や認識に与える影響を 検討し、非公式政治の構造に光を当てる。東欧・旧ソ連地域を舞台に、議会議事録・人事録を中心とした計量テキスト分析、有権者・エリート を対象としたサーベイ実験の手法を用いる。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

2022-2023年度は、以下の2つの研究に従事した。第一に、クライアンテリズムの多様性を国際比較の観点から把握するために、V-Partyデータを用いた論文を東洋大の鷲田任邦氏とともに執筆し、European Political Science Reviewから公刊された。第二に、カザフスタンにおいて、複数候補者の参入する村落選挙の導入が、公共財の供給や政治腐敗などに関して人々がいだく認識や経験に及ぼす効果についてのサーベイ(実験)を現地調査会社の協力のもと実施し、2023年9月のアメリカ政治学会で、共著者である明治大学の加藤言人氏、ミシガン大学の白糸裕輝氏、アリゾナ大学のPaul Schuler氏とともに発表した。

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

予定していたサーベイはカザフスタンで実施を終え、現在投稿に向けて論文の改訂を進めている。また、この研究課題にリンクする科研費「国際共同研究強化」に採択されたため、本研究課題での知見をもとにワシントン大学の研究者と共同研究するべく準備を進めており、研究の進展に弾みがついている。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

カザフスタンでのサーベイ(実験)の知見を複数の論文にまとめ、定評ある英語査読誌に投稿し公刊を目指す。また、カザフスタンとクルグズスタンで追加サーベイと人事録に関するテキスト分析を進め、異なるクライアンテリズムが統治の強靭性に与える影響について検討を続ける。

Report

(2 results)
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (54 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021

All Journal Article (21 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Peer Reviewed: 16 results,  Open Access: 10 results) Presentation (29 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 13 results,  Invited: 10 results) Book (4 results)

  • [Journal Article] 選挙が蝕む民主主義2024

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Journal Title

      外交

      Volume: 83 Pages: 42-47

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Dynamics of Electoral Manipulation and Institutional Trust in Democracies: Election Timing, Blatant Fraud, and the Legitimacy of Governance2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Hisashi Kadoya, Yuki Yanai
    • Journal Title

      Public Opinion Quarterly

      Volume: 近刊

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Political Regimes and Refugee Entries: The Preferences and Decisions of Displaced Persons and Host Governments2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Yujin Woo
    • Journal Title

      International Studies Quarterly

      Volume: 近刊

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Varieties of Clientelism across Political Parties: New Measures of Patron-Client Relationships2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Hidekuni Washida
    • Journal Title

      European Political Science Review

      Volume: online first

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 選挙操作と党派性: 多国間サーベイによる選挙の公正性認識の実証分析2023

    • Author(s)
      門屋寿, 塚田真司, 東島雅昌
    • Journal Title

      選挙研究

      Volume: 近刊

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] When Does the Honeymoon End? Electoral Cycles of Democratic Satisfaction in Africa2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Nicholas Kerr
    • Journal Title

      Political Psychology

      Volume: 44-4 Pages: 709-723

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Measuring National Refugee Policies: Recent Trends and Implications for Future Development2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Yujin Woo
    • Journal Title

      Interdisciplinary Information Sciences

      Volume: 29-2 Pages: 109-117

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Classifying Clientelism of Political Parties: Cross-National, Party-Level Explorations2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Hidekuni Washida
    • Journal Title

      University of Gothenburg, Varieties of Democracy Institute: Users’ Working Paper Series

      Volume: 51

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Author Exchange: The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box and Opposing Power2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Elvin Ong
    • Journal Title

      Democracy and Autocracy

      Volume: 21-1 Pages: 31-34

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] カザフスタン: 戦争と政治改革のジレンマ2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Journal Title

      外交

      Volume: 79 Pages: 80-85

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Integrating Governor Posts Into the Federal Bureaucratic Structure: Resignation and Post-Tenure Careers of Governors in Russia2023

    • Author(s)
      Masatomo Torikai
    • Journal Title

      Europe-Asia Studies

      Volume: 75 Pages: 1651-1676

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Partisan difference in social desirability bias on anti‐immigrant sentiments: Covert and overt expression among French voters2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Nakai
    • Journal Title

      International Migration

      Volume: 61 Pages: 248-261

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Support for free trade: an experimental survey in Estonia and Latvia2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Nakai
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Baltic Studies

      Volume: NA

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Remnants of the ancien regime: renomination and re-election of former members of a demised ruling party in Ukraine2022

    • Author(s)
      Masatomo Torikai
    • Journal Title

      Democratization

      Volume: 29 Pages: 1249-1267

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] The democratic backsliding paradigm in enlarged European Union countries: In-depth analysis of V-Dem indicators2022

    • Author(s)
      Ryo Nakai
    • Journal Title

      Frontiers in Political Science

      Volume: NA

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] クライアンテリズムと民主化: 政党レベルデータによる多国間統計分析2022

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌, 鷲田任邦
    • Journal Title

      『比較政治学会年報』

      Volume: 24 Pages: 3-35

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] The Perils of Parliamentarism: Executive Selection Systems and Democratic Transitions from Electoral Authoritarianism2022

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima, Yuko Kasuya
    • Journal Title

      Studies in Comparative International Development

      Volume: 57 Pages: 198-220

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Political Liberalization and Human Development: Dynamic Effects of Political Regime Change on Infant Mortality across Three Centuries (1800-2015)2021

    • Author(s)
      Annaka, Susumu and Masaaki Higashijima
    • Journal Title

      World Development

      Volume: 157(105614) Pages: 1-11

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The Choice of Electoral Systems in Electoral Autocracies2021

    • Author(s)
      Chang, Eric and Masaaki Higashijima
    • Journal Title

      Government and Opposition

      Volume: Online First Pages: 1-23

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 多国間統計分析と国内事例研究による混合手法:分析アプローチとしての発展と方法論的限界への処方箋2021

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Journal Title

      アジア経済

      Volume: 62-4 Pages: 49-78

    • NAID

      130008139957

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Blatant Electoral Fraud and the Value of a Vote2021

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Journal Title

      Japanese Journal of Political Science

      Volume: 22 Pages: 1-14

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Do Local Elections Change Political Attitudes in Kazakhstan? Identification through the Staggered Introduction of Village Elections2024

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      PSIR Workshop at Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] 民主主義を装う権威主義: 世界化する選挙独裁とその論理2024

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      一橋大学グローバル・ガバナンス研究センター
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 複合政策領域に対する政治学的貢献: バルト諸国のエネルギー安全保障とグリーンナショナリズムの観点から考える2024

    • Author(s)
      中井遼
    • Organizer
      外交・安全保障調査研究事業費補助金「国際理念と秩序の潮流:日本の安全保障戦略の課題」 研究会「エネルギー国際秩序における日本の立場」
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Do Elections Change Political Attitudes in Autocracies? Identification through the Staggered Introduction of Local Elections in Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      The Osaka Workshop on Economics of Institutions and Organizations, Osaka University
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Popular Protest and the Elite-Mass Linkage in Autocracies: Observational and Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      慶應義塾大学法学部 比較政治研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 民主主義を装う権威主義: 世界化する選挙独裁とその論理2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      東京大学・比較現代政治研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Disguising as Democrats: The Origins and Outcomes of Partially Independent EMBs in Autocracies2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      CIR Seminar Department of Political Science, University of Oslo
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Election Timing in Autocracies: Why Autocrats Call Elections in Economic Crisis?2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      Workshop on Power and Manipulation in Authoritarian Regimes, Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
  • [Presentation] Election Management, Manipulation Techniques, and Autocratic Survival2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      2023 General Conference of the European Consortium for Political Research
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The Relationship between Village Elections and Public Goods Provision: A Natural Experiment in Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      Paul Schuler and Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      2023 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Do Elections Change Political Attitudes in Autocracies? Identification through the Staggered Introduction of Local Elections in Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      Yuki Shiraito and Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      2023 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 民主主義と権威主義: 社会経済システムへの影響と統治手法の「収斂」?2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      立命館大学「人の資本主義」プロジェクト第15回カンファレンス
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box :『民主主義を装う権威主義』2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      ジェトロ・アジア経済研究所発展途上国研究奨励賞受賞講演
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Do Elections Change Political Attitudes in Autocracies? Identification through the Staggered Introduction of Local Elections in Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima and Yuki Shiraito
    • Organizer
      JSQPS 2023 Summer Meetin
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Popular Protests and Elite-Mass Linkage in Autocracies: Observational and Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan2023

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      Politics of Russia and Eurasia Seminar Series (PRESS)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 現代独裁制の比較政治学: 『民主主義を装う権威主義』を超えて2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      東大社研セミナー
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] ウクライナ危機前後のロシアメディアの論調の変化2023

    • Author(s)
      鳥飼将雅
    • Organizer
      日本比較政治学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Nationalism and Nature: An Empirical Survey Analysis of Environmental Nationalism2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo NAKAI
    • Organizer
      IPSA Colloquium of RC 43 Religion and Politics & RC14 Politics and Ethnicity
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exploring the Presence-Polarization Dilemma of Minority Political Representation: Evidence from Parliamentary Elections in Latvia (2022) and Estonia (2023)2023

    • Author(s)
      Ryo NAKAI, Timofey AGARIN
    • Organizer
      IPSA Colloquium of RC 43 Religion and Politics & RC14 Politics and Ethnicity
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Exploring the Presence-Polarization Dilemma of Minority Political Representation: Evidence from Parliamentary elections in Latvia (2022) and Estonia (2023) (No onsite participation)2023

    • Author(s)
      Timofey, AGARIN, Ryo NAKAI
    • Organizer
      UACES 2023 Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] バルト諸国におけるパトロネージと動員のサーベイ実験 A Survey Experiment of Clientelism in Baltic Countries2023

    • Author(s)
      中井遼
    • Organizer
      日本政治学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] グリーンナショナリズムの国際政治意識研究―東欧の事例研究と国際サーベイ比較を通じて2023

    • Author(s)
      中井遼
    • Organizer
      東京大学先端研カフェセミナー
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Liberalism under the shadow in the East2023

    • Author(s)
      中井遼
    • Organizer
      外務省補助金「自由民主主義秩序を支える情報プラットフォームの構築」 タスクフォース「東欧、中・東欧、バルカン諸国の自由・民主主義の帰趨」 第2回研究会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] How the Demny voting system generates future-minded voters2023

    • Author(s)
      Yuki Yanai
    • Organizer
      2023 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] ドメイン投票は有権者を将来志向に変えるのか2023

    • Author(s)
      矢内勇生, 上條良夫
    • Organizer
      日本選挙学会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Popular Protests and Elite-Mass Linkage in Autocracies: Observational and Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan2021

    • Author(s)
      Masaaki Higashijima
    • Organizer
      Virtual Workshop on Authoritarian Regimes
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Tutelary Power and Autocratic Legitimacy: Experimental Evidence from Kazakhstan's Diarchy2021

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌、白糸裕輝
    • Organizer
      日本政治学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Public Information and Mass Reaction in Autocracies: Information Correction Experiment on COVID-19 in Kazakhstan2021

    • Author(s)
      Higashijima, Masaaki, Susumu Annaka and Gento Kato
    • Organizer
      Asian Politics Online Seminar Series (APOSS)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] クライアンテリズムの要因と帰結2021

    • Author(s)
      鷲田任邦、東島雅昌
    • Organizer
      日本比較政治学会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Book] 民主主義を装う権威主義 - 世界化する選挙独裁とその論理2023

    • Author(s)
      東島雅昌
    • Total Pages
      416
    • Publisher
      千倉書房
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Rで学ぶゲーム理論2023

    • Author(s)
      上條良夫, 矢内勇生
    • Total Pages
      244
    • Publisher
      朝倉書店
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] The Dictator's Dilemma at the Ballot Box: Electoral Manipulation, Economic Maneuvering, and Political Order in Autocracies2022

    • Author(s)
      Higashijima, Masaaki
    • Total Pages
      364
    • Publisher
      University of Michigan Press
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Book] Japan Decides 2021: The Japanese General Election, Did COVID-19 Impact Japan's 2021 General Election?2022

    • Author(s)
      Michael F. Thies, Yuki Yanai
    • Total Pages
      254
    • Publisher
      Palgrave Macmillan
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report

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Published: 2021-04-28   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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