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コーポレートファイナンス動学モデルによるクレジットリスクと財務指標の定量分析

Research Project

Project/Area Number 23K20613
Project/Area Number (Other) 21H00730 (2021-2023)
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund (2024)
Single-year Grants (2021-2023)
Section一般
Review Section Basic Section 07060:Money and finance-related
Research InstitutionTokyo Metropolitan University

Principal Investigator

芝田 隆志  東京都立大学, 経営学研究科, 教授 (70372597)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) 西原 理  大阪大学, 大学院経済学研究科, 教授 (20456940)
Project Period (FY) 2021-04-01 – 2025-03-31
Project Status Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
Budget Amount *help
¥16,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥12,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,750,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2023: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2022: ¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2021: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
Keywordsファイナンス / 企業金融 / オプション理論 / 資金制約 / 競争均衡 / 競争環境 / 負債の再交渉 / 情報の非対称性 / 非対称情報 / 最適資本構成 / 連鎖倒産
Outline of Research at the Start

本研究では,企業金融と金融工学との融合研究であるコーポレートファイナンス動学モデルを拡張し,そのモデルを用いて,クレジットリスクを考慮に入れた企業の財務指標を推定する.特に,本研究では,国際学術研究会の参加,国際研究集会の開催を通じて,当該研究に関する国際的な学術研究拠点としての機能を拡充する.

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

本年度の研究業績は,学術論文1本(査読つき国際学術誌),学会報告15件(国際7件,国内8件のうち招待講演2件)に集約される.

本年度の研究では,競争環境が企業の投資タイミング戦略に与える影響について考察した.具体的な主要な結果は,次の2点にある.第一に,企業の投資費用が,完全な不可逆ではなく部分的に不可逆であると仮定した.その部分的不可逆性の下では,企業の投資タイミングは競争環境に依存することを明らかにした.従来の研究では,企業の投資費用が完全な不可逆であると仮定されており,企業の投資タイミングは競争環境には依存しないことが示されていた.もし企業の投資費用が完全な不可逆から部分的に不可逆となるならば,企業は業績悪化の際に企業を流動化させることが可能となる.それゆえ,企業の投資タイミングが競争環境に依存する理由は,企業が流動化戦略をもつからであることを示した.第二に,企業が投資費用を,株式発行ではなく負債発行によって賄うと仮定する.この負債調達の下では,企業の投資タイミングは競争環境に依存することを明らかにした.従来の研究では,企業の投資費用は株式発行によって賄うと仮定されており,企業の投資タイミングは競争環境には依存しないことが示されていた.もし企業が投資費用を負債発行によって調達するならば,企業は業績悪化の際に企業を倒産させることになる.それゆえ,企業の投資タイミングが競争環境に依存する理由は,企業が倒産戦略をもつからであることを示した.以上より,もし企業が投資開始後に倒産や流動化などの戦略をもつ場合には,投資タイミングは競争環境に依存し,そうでないならば,投資タイミングは競争環境に依存しないことを明らかにした.

学会発表では,国際学会にて7件,国内学会にて8件(うち招待講演2件),研究報告を行った.次年度,これらの研究成果を学術論文として取りまとめ,学術論文誌に投稿する予定である.

Current Status of Research Progress
Current Status of Research Progress

1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.

Reason

研究期間が3年経過した時点において,学術論文9本(2021年度5本,2022年度3本,2023年1本)が(査読つき)国際学術誌に掲載され,また学会報告を32回(国際学会17回,国内学会15回)行うことができたため,当初の計画以上に進展していると判断できる.

Strategy for Future Research Activity

今後の研究では,競争市場における企業の最適投資戦略モデルに,競争均衡の条件を新しく導入することにより,競争均衡が企業の最適投資戦略に与える影響について明らかにする.

Report

(3 results)
  • 2023 Annual Research Report
  • 2022 Annual Research Report
  • 2021 Annual Research Report
  • Research Products

    (43 results)

All 2024 2023 2022 2021 Other

All Int'l Joint Research (1 results) Journal Article (10 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 9 results,  Open Access: 8 results) Presentation (32 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 17 results,  Invited: 3 results)

  • [Int'l Joint Research] William Paterson University(米国)

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Two-stage investment, loan guarantees and share buybacks2023

    • Author(s)
      Dong Linjia、Nishihara Michi、Yang Zhaojun
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

      Volume: 156 Pages: 104741-104741

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jedc.2023.104741

    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] Target-initiated takeover with search frictions2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara Michi
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: 305 Issue: 3 Pages: 1480-1497

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ejor.2022.07.010

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Optimal financing and investment strategies under asymmetric information on liquidation value2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibata Takashi、Nishihara Michi
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Banking & Finance

      Volume: 146 Pages: 106709-106709

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106709

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Corporate investment, financing, and exit model with an earnings-based borrowing constraint2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara Michi、Shibata Takashi、Zhang Chuanqian
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Financial Analysis

      Volume: 85 Pages: 102456-102456

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102456

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
  • [Journal Article] 企業の資金調達と流動化戦略2022

    • Author(s)
      芝田隆志, 西原理
    • Journal Title

      オペレーションズ・リサーチ

      Volume: 67 (5) Pages: 228-234

    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Journal Article] Optimal capital structure and simultaneous bankruptcy of firms in corporate networks2021

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M. and Shibata, T.
    • Journal Title

      Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control

      Volume: 133 Pages: 104264-104264

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104264

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Financing and investment strategies under creditor-maximized liquidation2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T. and Nishihara, M.
    • Journal Title

      International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance

      Volume: 24 Issue: 03 Pages: 2150013-2150013

    • DOI

      10.1142/s0219024921500138

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] R&D competition and cooperation with asymmetric spillovers in an oligopoly market2021

    • Author(s)
      Ishikawa, N. and Shibata, T.
    • Journal Title

      International Review of Economics and Finance

      Volume: 72 Pages: 624-642

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.iref.2020.12.016

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] Preemptive competition between two firms with different discount rates2021

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Journal Title

      Managerial and Decision Economics

      Volume: 42 Issue: 3 Pages: 675-687

    • DOI

      10.1002/mde.3264

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] The effects of asset liquidity on dynamic sell-out and bankruptcy decisions2021

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara Michi、Shibata Takashi
    • Journal Title

      European Journal of Operational Research

      Volume: 288 Issue: 3 Pages: 1017-1035

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.ejor.2020.06.031

    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Presentation] Investment, partial irreversibility, competition2024

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      Workshops Academics Real Options (WARO) 2024
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Does debt-equity financing accelerate investment faster than all-equity financing? A real option framework2024

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      Winter Workshop on Operation Research, Finance and Mathematics, 2024
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment, partial irreversibility, and competition2024

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      令和6 年(2024) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会春季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] コーポレートファイナンスの数理モデル2024

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会関西支部記念講演会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] コーポレートファイナンスの数理モデル2024

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会春季研究発表会特別講演
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Investment timing , upper reflecting barrier, and debt financing2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      2023 INFORMS Annual Meeting
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment timing , upper reflecting barrier, and debt financing2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      International Real Options Conference 2023
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment timing, upper reflecting barrier, and debt-equity financing2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      RIMS Workshop on Financial Modeling and Analysis 2023 (FMA 2023)
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment timing, upper reflecting barrier, and debt-equity financing2023

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      令和5 年(2023) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The effects of a financial covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      CFE-CMStatistics
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The effects of a financial covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      Vietnam Symposium in Banking and Finance
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The effects of an earnings-based covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      6th International Conference on the Dynamics of Information Systems
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The effects of a financial covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      日本ファイナンス学会第5回秋季研究大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The effects of an earnings-based covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      令和5 年(2023) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] The effects of an earnings-based covenant on capital structure and firm value2023

    • Author(s)
      Nishiara, M.
    • Organizer
      RIMS Workshop on Financial Modeling and Analysis 2023 (FMA 2023)
    • Related Report
      2023 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment, strategic debt service, and liquidation2022

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      28th International Conference on Computing in Economics and Finance (CEF 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment timing, upper reflecting barrier, and debt-equity financing2022

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      University of Toronto, Department of Statistical Science, Research Seminar
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimal default decision with an upper reflecting barrier2022

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      令和4 年(2022) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment, financing, liquidation, and asymmetric information2022

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      RIMS Workshop on Financial Modeling and Analysis 2022 (FMA 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Corporate investment, financing, and exit model with an earnings-based borrowing constraint2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      European Financial Management Association Annunal Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The choice between sustainable and unsustainable investment projects2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      32nd European Conference on Operational Research
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] The interactions among corporate sustainability, invsetment, and capital structure2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      13th Triennial International Conference of the Association of Asia Pacific Operational Research Societies
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Optimal capital structure for earnings with a lower reflecting barrier2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      Real Options Workshop, Osaka University
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Corporate investment, financing, and exit decisions with an earnings-based borrowing constraint2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      Paris Financial Management Conference
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Corporate sustainability, investment, and capital structure2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      令和4 年(2022) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会秋季大会
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Optimal capital structure of a firm that receives earnings with a lower reflecting barrier2022

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      RIMS Workshop on Financial Modeling and Analysis 2022 (FMA 2022)
    • Related Report
      2022 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment, financing, strategic debt service, and formal bankruptcy2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      2021年度日本OR学会関西支部シンポジウム「確率モデルの躍動」
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Investment, financing, strategic debt service, and liquidation2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      RIMS Workshop on Financial Modeling and Analysis 2021 (FMA 2021)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment, strategic debt service, and liquidation2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      令和3年 (2021) 日本オペレーションズ・リサーチ学会 春季大会
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Investment, strategic debt service, and liquidation2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      Conference on International Federation of Operational Research Societies (IFORS 2021)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment, strategic debt service, and liquidation2021

    • Author(s)
      Shibata, T.
    • Organizer
      European Conference on Operational Research (EURO 2021)
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Investment under an earnings-based borrowing constraint2021

    • Author(s)
      Nishihara, M.
    • Organizer
      Real Options Workshop, Osaka University
    • Related Report
      2021 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research

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Published: 2021-04-28   Modified: 2024-12-25  

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