Developing the foundation of real time assessment of COVID-19 accounting for heterogeneity and asymptomatic nature of infection

• Project/Area Number: 23K21519
• Project/Area Number (Other): 21H03198 (2021-2023)
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund (2024); Single-year Grants (2021-2023)
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 58030:Hygiene and public health-related: excluding laboratory approach
• Research Institution: Kyoto University
• Principal Investigator: 西浦 博 京都大学, 医学研究科, 教授 (70432987)
• Project Period (FY): 2021-04-01 – 2026-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
• Budget Amount: ¥17,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,930,000); Fiscal Year 2025: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2024: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000); Fiscal Year 2023: ¥3,380,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥780,000); Fiscal Year 2022: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000); Fiscal Year 2021: ¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
• Keywords: 感染症 / 疫学 / 数理モデル / 予防医学 / 不顕性感染

Outline of Research at the Start

本研究は、COVID-19流行の観察データを使用して伝播の異質性や不顕性感染者が生み出す2次感染者数、および、ヒトの移動に伴う流行リスクを明示的に推定し、それを感染症対策の評価に役立てる数理モデリングプロジェクトである。倫理的理由から、隔離や接触者追跡調査をランダムに割り付けするができないため、観察研究成果を利用して後ろ向きに疫学データを分析し、そのデータに統計モデルを適用することで推定する。伝播ネットワークの再構築と分析に必要な分岐過程や多変量再生産方程式などのモデルで明らかにできることを体系的に整理し、モデル構造とモデル化に必要な想定を明らかにしつつ、基礎的方法論を確立する。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

新型コロナウイルス感染症流行で数理モデルを活用した分析を行ってきたが、評価の細部技術において様々な科学的問題が浮き彫りになった。本研究の目的は、リアルタイムの感染症流行評価のための数理モデルを活用した定量化方法を構築することである。交付期間内に次の3つの研究項目に取り組むべく作業を実施してきた： (1) 職種別の実効再生産数推定（伝播ネットワークを利用した世界初の推定モデルの実装）、(2) 不顕性感染者の2次感染リスク推定手法の開発とクラスター対策の妥当性評価、(3) ヒト移動データとゲノム情報を駆使した移動に伴う流行リスクの定量化。これらの推定を技術面で刷新することにより、きめ細やかな感染症対策の選択やヒト移動に関わる政策判断などを行うための革新的なリアルタイム評価基盤を構築することを最終目標に据えており、定量的リスクに基づく社会活動および移動のあり方を判断可能なモデリングの実装研究に取り組んできた。2022年度は、リアルタイム研究を次年度に繰越して実施しつつ展開することとなったが、本研究課題が対象に据えている異質性の中でも年齢依存性や地域依存性、また、社会的異質性に着目しつつ分析を実施することができた。加えて、不顕性感染の役割についても引き続き推定研究に役立てることができた。COVID-19という社会的関心の高い流行において、限定的な職種の対策やヒト移動の制限や緩和をどの程度科学的に判断できるのか、定量的感覚を与える初の取り組みとなる。本研究は、データ解析手法の改善を施しつつ感染症対策の評価手法の提案を行う点において、感染症の公衆衛生対策に多大な貢献が期待される。

Current Status of Research Progress

1: Research has progressed more than it was originally planned.

Reason

新型コロナウイルス感染症の流行とともに展開している研究は、そのリアルタイム研究を2022年度分を次年度に繰越して実施しつつ展開することとなったが、本研究課題が対象に据えている異質性の中でも年齢依存性や地域依存性、また、社会的異質性に着目しつつ分析を実施することができた。加えて、不顕性感染の役割についても引き続き推定研究に役立てることができた。年齢依存性の研究においては、血清疫学情報とサーベイランス情報を組み合わせて診断バイアスの推定を時系列で実施することに成功し、その推定成果を原著論文として報告した。地域依存性においてはGPS情報を活用したヒト移動率を用いると、日本国内における都道府県間の新型コロナウイルス感染症の地域拡大を予測可能であることを示すことができた。単に地域間の伝播が予測可能というだけでなく、地域間の移動率が仮に低く抑えられた場合や更に活性化された場合などの仮想的シナリオの検討を実施することに用いることができた。加えて、ネットワークの科学としての観点から、行楽地である沖縄県や北海道などの遠隔地と本州の遠隔地とではヒト移動の東京都や大阪府などの大都市圏に対する従属性に差異を認め、沖縄県や北海道のほうが東京都や大阪府などの大都市圏からの感染の影響を受けやすいことを同モデルを用いて示すことができた。社会的異質性ではクラスタリングのリスク分析とその時系列従属性に関する成果をまとめることができた。以上の成果をリアルタイムで得る基盤は予定以上の研究業績を得ることに繋がっており、今後も同課題の研究推進に努める所存である。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

COVID-19流行の観察データを使用して伝播の異質性や不顕性感染者が生み出す2次感染者数、および、ヒトの移動に伴う流行リスクを明示的に推定し、それを感染症対策の評価に役立てる数理モデリング研究を展開している。流行中は、倫理的理由から、隔離や接触者追跡調査をランダムに割り付けするができないため、流行の観察研究成果を利用して後ろ向きに疫学データを分析し、そのデータに統計モデルを適用することで推定することが求められる。伝播ネットワークの再構築と分析に必要な分岐過程や多変量再生産方程式などのモデルで明らかにできることを体系的に整理し、今後も、モデル構造とモデル化に必要な想定を明らかにしつつ、基礎的方法論を確立する予定である。個々の課題に関する基礎的モデルの構築と分析を完了し、それらに関してCOVID-19の事例研究を通じて発表する予定であるが、今後は特に以下の3つの研究課題に関する成果創出を達成すべく研究の遂行に取り組む所存である。
(1) 職種別の実効再生産数推定：伝播ネットワークを利用した世界初の推定モデルの実装
(2) 不顕性感染者の2次感染リスク推定手法の開発：発病患者の重症度や閉鎖空間での感染者情報などを駆使した不顕性感染の推定とクラスター対策の評価
(3) ヒト移動データとゲノム情報を駆使した移動に伴う流行リスクの定量化

Research Products

• [Journal Article] Identifying the population susceptible to rubella in Japan, 2020: Fine-scale risk mapping (2024)
  • Author(s): Kinoshita Ryo、Arai Satoru、Suzuki Motoi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Infection and Public Health Volume: 17 Issue: 6 Pages: 947-955
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2024.03.029
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Decomposing mechanisms of COVID-19 mortality in empirical datasets: A modeling study. (2024)
  • Author(s): Zhang T, Qiao J, Hayashi K, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Theor Biol. Volume: 584 Pages: 111771-111771
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111771
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Reconstruction and analysis of the transmission network of African swine fever in People’s Republic of China, August 2018?September 2019 (2024)
  • Author(s): Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Jung Sung-mok、Lee Hyojung、Linton Natalie M.、Yang Yichi、Yuan Baoyin、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Epidemiology and Infection Volume: 152 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.1017/s0950268824000086
• [Journal Article] Public holidays increased the transmission of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020?2021: a mathematical modelling study (2024)
  • Author(s): Qiao Jiaying、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Epidemiology and Health Volume: 2024 Pages: 2024025-2024025
  • DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2024025
• [Journal Article] Reconstructing the COVID-19 incidence in India using airport screening data in Japan (2024)
  • Author(s): Liu Shiqi、Anzai Asami、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 24 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08882-w
• [Journal Article] Life-expectancy changes from 2019 to 22: A case study of Japan using provisional death count (2024)
  • Author(s): Munira Mst S.、Okada Yuta、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Infection and Public Health Volume: 17 Issue: 1 Pages: 119-121
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jiph.2023.11.016
• [Journal Article] Survey of exposure to stranded dolphins in Japan to investigate an outbreak of suspected infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4(b) in humans (2024)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Fujiwara Seiko、Okada Yuta、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: New Microbes and New Infections Volume: 56 Pages: 101214-101214
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.nmni.2023.101214
• [Journal Article] Habitual Mask Wearing as Part of COVID-19 Control in Japan: An Assessment Using the Self-Report Habit Index. (2023)
  • Author(s): Li T, Fujimoto M, Hayashi K, Anzai A, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Behav Sci (Basel) Volume: 13 Issue: 11 Pages: 951-951
  • DOI: 10.3390/bs13110951
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Assessing the COVID-19 vaccination program during the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) epidemic in early 2022, Tokyo (2023)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 23 Issue: 1 Pages: 748-748
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08748-1
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Evaluating the COVID-19 vaccination program in Japan, 2021 using the counterfactual reproduction number (2023)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Ko Yura、Otani Kanako、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Suzuki Motoi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Pages: 17762-17762
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-44942-6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Age-dependent final size equation to anticipate mortality impact of COVID-19 in China (2023)
  • Author(s): Amemiya Yuri、Li Tianwen、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 20 Issue: 6 Pages: 11353-11366
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023503
• [Journal Article] Combined effect of early diagnosis and treatment on the case fatality risk of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 (2023)
  • Author(s): Amemiya Yuri、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-33929-y
• [Journal Article] Estimating infection fatality risk and ascertainment bias of COVID-19 in Osaka, Japan from February 2020 to January 2022 (2023)
  • Author(s): Zhang Tong、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Scientific Reports Volume: 13 Issue: 1 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-32639-9
• [Journal Article] Letter to the Editor: Knowledge gap in assessing the risk of a human pandemic via mammals’ infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) (2023)
  • Author(s): Nishiura Hiroshi、Kayano Taishi、Hayashi Katsuma、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Okada Yuta
  • Journal Title: Eurosurveillance Volume: 28 Issue: 9 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2023.28.9.2300134
• [Journal Article] Projecting the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan in the presence of waning immunity and booster vaccination (2023)
  • Author(s): Sasanami Misaki、Fujimoto Marie、Kayano Taishi、Hayashi Katsuma、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Theoretical Biology Volume: 559 Pages: 111384-111384
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111384
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Identifying High-Risk Events for COVID-19 Transmission: Estimating the Risk of Clustering Using Nationwide Data (2023)
  • Author(s): M. Ueda, K. Hayashi, H. Nishiura
  • Journal Title: Viruses Volume: 15 Issue: 2 Pages: 456-456
  • DOI: 10.3390/v15020456
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Epidemiological Associations between Rabies Vaccination and Dog Owner Characteristics (2023)
  • Author(s): Amemiya Yuri、Inoue Satoshi、Maeda Ken、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Vaccines Volume: 11 Issue: 2 Pages: 352-352
  • DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11020352
• [Journal Article] Computational Simulation Model to Predict Behavior Changes in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Analysis of Two Regional Japanese Populations (2023)
  • Author(s): Suzuki Gen、Iwakiri Ryuichi、Udagawa Eri、Ma Sindy、Takayama Ryoko、Nishiura Hiroshi、Nakamura Koshi、Burns Samuel P.、D’Alessandro Paul Michael、Fernandez Jovelle
  • Journal Title: Journal of Clinical Medicine Volume: 12 Issue: 3 Pages: 757-757
  • DOI: 10.3390/jcm12030757
• [Journal Article] Life-expectancy changes during the COVID-19 pandemic from 2019?2021: estimates from Japan, a country with low pandemic impact (2023)
  • Author(s): Munira Mst Sirajum、Okada Yuta、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: PeerJ Volume: 11 Pages: e15784-e15784
  • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15784
• [Journal Article] Possible adaptation measures for climate change in preventing heatstroke among older adults in Japan (2023)
  • Author(s): Fujimoto M, Hayashi K, Nishiura H
  • Journal Title: Front Public Health Volume: 11 Pages: 1-1
  • DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1184963
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Epidemiological impact of travel enhancement on the inter-prefectural importation dynamics of COVID-19 in Japan, 2020 (2023)
  • Author(s): Anzai Asami、Yamasaki Syudo、Bleichrodt Amanda、Chowell Gerardo、Nishida Atsushi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 20 Issue: 12 Pages: 21499-21513
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023951
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] COVID-19 cases with a contact history: A modeling study of contact history-stratified data in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Zhang Tong、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 20 Issue: 2 Pages: 3661-3676
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023171
• [Journal Article] Seasonal transmission dynamics of varicella in Japan: The role of temperature and school holidays (2022)
  • Author(s): Suzuki Ayako、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 20 Issue: 2 Pages: 4069-4081
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023190
• [Journal Article] Protection against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants via vaccination and natural infection: A modeling study (2022)
  • Author(s): Okada Yuta、Kayano Taishi、Anzai Asami、Zhang Tong、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 20 Issue: 2 Pages: 2530-2543
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2023118
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Basic reproduction number of the COVID-19 Delta variant: Estimation from multiple transmission datasets (2022)
  • Author(s): Ueda Minami、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 12 Pages: 13137-13151
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022614
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Time-dependent risk of COVID-19 death with overwhelmed health-care capacity in Japan, 2020?2022 (2022)
  • Author(s): Hayashi Katsuma、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 22 Issue: 1 Pages: 22-933
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07929-8
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Correlation between times to SARS-CoV-2 symptom onset and secondary transmission undermines epidemic control efforts (2022)
  • Author(s): Linton Natalie M.、Akhmetzhanov Andrei R.、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Epidemics Volume: 41 Pages: 100655-100655
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100655
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Decrease in overdispersed secondary transmission of COVID-19 over time in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Miyama Takeshi、Jung Sung-mok、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Epidemiology and Infection Volume: 150 Pages: 1-29
  • DOI: 10.1017/s0950268822001789
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Go To Travel campaign and the geographic spread of COVID-19 in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Anzai Asami、Jung Sung-mok、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: BMC Infectious Diseases Volume: 22 Issue: 1
  • DOI: 10.1186/s12879-022-07799-0
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Human monkeypox disease (MPX) (2022)
  • Author(s): Nishiura H, et al.
  • Journal Title: Infezioni in Medicina Volume: 30 Issue: 3
  • DOI: 10.53854/liim-3003-6
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Doubling time of infectious diseases (2022)
  • Author(s): Anzai Asami、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Theoretical Biology Volume: 554 Pages: 111278-111278
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111278
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Age-specific hospitalization risk of primary and secondary respiratory syncytial virus infection among young children (2022)
  • Author(s): Nakajo Ko、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume: 124 Pages: 14-20
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.09.008
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Hayashi Katsuma、Fujimoto Marie、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Public Health Volume: 10
  • DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.959312
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Number of averted COVID-19 cases and deaths attributable to reduced risk in vaccinated individuals in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Sasanami Misaki、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Ko Yura K.、Otani Kanako、Suzuki Motoi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific Volume: 28 Pages: 100571-100571
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100571
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Estimating relative generation times and reproduction numbers of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 with respect to Delta variant in Denmark (2022)
  • Author(s): Ito Kimihito、Piantham Chayada、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 9 Pages: 9005-9017
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022418
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Baseline scenarios of heat-related ambulance transportations under climate change in Tokyo, Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Fujimoto Marie、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: PeerJ Volume: 10 Pages: e13838-e13838
  • DOI: 10.7717/peerj.13838
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk? (2022)
  • Author(s): Jung Sung-mok、Hayashi Katsuma、Kayano Taishi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Epidemics Volume: 40 Pages: 100618-100618
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100618
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Assessing Public Health and Social Measures Against COVID-19 in Japan From March to June 2021 (2022)
  • Author(s): Hayashi Katsuma、Kayano Taishi、Anzai Asami、Fujimoto Marie、Linton Natalie、Sasanami Misaki、Suzuki Ayako、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Otani Kanako、Yamauchi Masato、Suzuki Motoi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Medicine Volume: 9
  • DOI: 10.3389/fmed.2022.937732
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Age-Dependent Effects of COVID-19 Vaccine and of Healthcare Burden on COVID-19 Deaths, Tokyo, Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Ko Yura K.、Murayama Hiroaki、Yamasaki Lisa、Kinoshita Ryo、Suzuki Motoi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Emerging Infectious Diseases Volume: 28 Issue: 9 Pages: 1777-1784
  • DOI: 10.3201/eid2809.220377
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Age-Dependent Risks of COVID-19 Putatively Caused by Variant Alpha in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Hayashi Katsuma、Kobayashi Tetsuro、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Frontiers in Public Health Volume: 10 Pages: 837970-837970
  • DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.837970
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Part 2: Real-time comparison between single-dose and double-dose in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Kobayashi Tetsuro、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 7 Pages: 7410-7424
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022350
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination. Part 1: Final size comparison between a single dose and double dose (2022)
  • Author(s): Kobayashi Tetsuro、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 7 Pages: 7374-7387
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022348
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Monitoring the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): Sasanami Misaki、Kayano Taishi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume: 122 Pages: 300-306
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.06.005
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan during the first and second waves (2022)
  • Author(s): Kinoshita Ryo, Jung Sung-mok, Kobayashi Tetsuro, Akhmetzhanov Andrei R., Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 6 Pages: 6088-6101
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022284
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study (2022)
  • Author(s): Suzuki Ayako、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 6 Pages: 5998-6012
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022280
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] High population burden of Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) is associated with the emergence of severe hepatitis of unknown etiology in children (2022)
  • Author(s): Nishiura Hiroshi、Jung Sung-mok、Hayashi Katsuma
  • Journal Title: International Journal of Infectious Diseases Volume: 122 Pages: 30-32
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.05.028
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] The number of COVID-19 clusters in healthcare and elderly care facilities averted by vaccination of healthcare workers in Japan, February?June 2021 (2022)
  • Author(s): Sasanami Misaki、Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8601, Japan、Kayano Taishi、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 3 Pages: 2762-2773
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022126
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Estimating the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 in Japan using travel history information (2022)
  • Author(s): Kayano Taishi、Kyoto University School of Public Health, Yoshida-Konoe-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan、Nishiura Hiroshi
  • Journal Title: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Volume: 19 Issue: 3 Pages: 2750-2761
  • DOI: 10.3934/mbe.2022125
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] 新型コロナウイルス感染症の中期および長期のリスク分析 (2023)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 第81回日本公衆衛生学会総会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Monitoring the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan (2023)
  • Author(s): Hiroshi Nishiura
  • Organizer: 20th International Congress for Tropical Medicine and Malaria (ICTMM2020)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 新型コロナウイルス感染症のこれまでと今後の見通し (2023)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 第30回日本慢性期医療学会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] 新型コロナウイルス感染症の流行対策のデザインとその科学コミュニケーション (2023)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 日本計算社会学会大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] COVID-19の疫学：ここまでにわかったことと問題点 (2023)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 日本内科学会総会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Monitoring the COVID-19 immune landscape (2022)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: ICID2022-International Congress on Infectious Diseases
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Monitoring the COVID-19 immune landscape in Japan (2022)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 20th International Congress for Tropical Medicine and Malaria (ICTMM2020)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 新型コロナウイルス感染症の中期および長期のリスク分析 (2022)
  • Author(s): 西浦博
  • Organizer: 第81回日本公衆衛生学会総会、山梨、2022/10/7
  • Invited