エルニーニョ・南方振動気候モデル実験による重力波と赤道準2年振動の新知見

• Project/Area Number: 23K22574
• Project/Area Number (Other): 22H01303 (2022-2023)
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund (2024); Single-year Grants (2022-2023)
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 17020:Atmospheric and hydrospheric sciences-related
• Research Institution: Hokkaido University (2023-2024); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (2022)
• Principal Investigator: 河谷 芳雄 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 准教授 (00392960)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 藤原 正智 北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 教授 (00360941) ; 渡辺 真吾 国立研究開発法人海洋研究開発機構, 地球環境部門(環境変動予測研究センター), センター長代理 (50371745)
• Project Period (FY): 2024-04-01 – 2026-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
• Budget Amount: ¥17,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥13,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,990,000); Fiscal Year 2025: ¥3,510,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥810,000); Fiscal Year 2024: ¥3,640,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥840,000); Fiscal Year 2023: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000); Fiscal Year 2022: ¥5,590,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,290,000)
• Keywords: 赤道準2年振動 / エルニーニョ・南方振動

Outline of Research at the Start

熱帯域成層圏に存在する赤道準2年振動（QBO）は広範囲の力学・化学過程に影響を及ぼし、気象予報精度とも関連する、極めて重要な現象の1つである。現在、世界のほぼ全ての気候モデルで重力波パラメタリゼーションを組み込むことでQBOを再現している。世界中のモデルを集めて行われた最新のQBO温暖化実験では、将来QBO変化についてモデル間で大きなバラつきが見られた。国際的な共同研究プロジェクトを主導し、エルニーニョ・南方振動（ENSO）によるQBO変調を解析することで、ENSOと連動する同パラメタリゼーションを検証し、気候モデルの不確実性低減に資する知見を得る。

Outline of Annual Research Achievements

赤道準2年振動（QBO）気候モデル国際比較プロジェクト（QBOi）のco-leadsとして、国際共同研究を主導した。ENSO－QBO実験を主責任者として取り纏め、ENSOによるQBO変調、中緯度テレコネクション、熱帯MJO活動に関する3つの論文を投稿し、Discussion論文として公開された。これら3本の論文は現在改訂中である。
4種の再解析データから計算した変形オイラー平均（TEM）方程式系の全項と残差項およびその全変数について、それらの気候値の比較・検証をおこなった論文を国際誌に出版した。2022年トンガ噴火に伴う気温場や循環場の影響をQBOと絡めて分析し、報告書の原稿を執筆した。2024年7月の国際会議Quadrennial Ozone Symposiumに、プログラム委員、座長、発表者として参加し、QBO影響を含むオゾン層の最新の科学について議論した。QBO位相の監視に本質的な役割を果たしているラジオゾンデ観測について、世界の定常観測サイトで高度32 km以上までの観測を維持するべきであることを気候科学・天気予報科学の両面から議論した総合論文を第一著者として共同執筆し受理された。
化学気候モデルMIROC-CHASERを用いて参加し、実験データを提出した。実験プロトコルを含む最初の論文の分担執筆に参加し、GMD誌に投稿した。成層圏オゾンとQBOの相互作用に注目したQUOCAに参加し、実験データを提出した。新たな積雲対流パラメタリゼーションを導入したMIROC6.1モデルのQBOの再現性評価に関して国際学会発表を行った。Beres (2005)の重力波パラメタリゼーションを導入したAFESモデルのQBOのチューニングに関する論文の分担執筆に参加し論文を投稿した。

Current Status of Research Progress

2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.

Reason

今後のQBO関連研究に広く引用されることが期待される。QBOi国際プロジェクトのco-leadsとして国際共同研究を主導しつつ、同プロジェクトの共著論文の3本が改訂中である。

Strategy for Future Research Activity

交付申請書に記載した手順で、引き続き研究を進めていく。特に気候モデルの本格的な実験を開始し、データ解析を進めていく。

Research Products

• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Hawaii/NCAR/GISS(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] Met Office/University of Oxford(英国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] CCCma(カナダ)
• [Int'l Joint Research] LMD(フランス)
• [Int'l Joint Research] ISMAR-CNR/CMCC(イタリア)
• [Int'l Joint Research]
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Hawaii/NorthWest Research Associates/National Center For Atmospheric Research(米国)
• [Int'l Joint Research] University of Oxford/UK Met Office(英国)
• [Journal Article] QBOi El Nino Southern Oscillation experiments: Assessing relationships between ENSO, MJO, and QBO (2025)
  • Author(s): Elsbury Dillon、Serva Federico、Caron Julie M.、Back Seung-Yoon、Orbe Clara、Richter Jadwiga H.、Anstey James A.、Butchart Neal、Chen Chih-Chieh、Garcia-Serrano Javier、Glanville Anne、Kawatani Yoshio et al.
  • Journal Title: Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussion Volume: -
  • DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3950
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] QBOi El Nino Southern Oscillation experiments: Teleconnections of the QBO (2025)
  • Author(s): Naoe Hiroaki、Garcia-Franco Jorge L.、Park Chang-Hyun、Rodrigo Mario、Palmeiro Froila M.、Serva Federico、Taguchi Masakazu、Yoshida Kohei、Anstey James A.、Garcia-Serrano Javier、Son Seok-Woo、Kawatani Yoshio et al.
  • Journal Title: Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussion Volume: -
  • DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1148
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 日本の気象学の現状と展望2024 1.9 中層大気 (2025)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄, 佐藤薫, 江口菜穂, 木下武也, 高麗正史, 小林ちあき, 坂崎貴俊, 原田やよい, 藤原正智, 堀之内武, 渡辺真吾
  • Journal Title: 天気 Volume: 72 Pages: 37-38
• [Journal Article] 2-Day Early-Career Scientists' Event at the A-RIP 2024 Planning Workshop in Boulder (2025)
  • Author(s): M. A. Diallo, S. M. Davis, V. L. Harvey, J. S. Wright, G. L. Manney, M. Fujiwara, and K. Wargan
  • Journal Title: APARC Newsletter Volume: 64 Pages: 26-28
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] 国際オゾンシンポジウム2024報告 (2025)
  • Author(s): 中島英彰, 村田功, YANG Tianliang, 関谷高志, 藤原正智, 上里至, 宮川幸治
  • Journal Title: 天気 Volume: 72 Pages: 113-120
• [Journal Article] QBOi El Nino Southern Oscillation experiments Part I: Overview of experiment design and ENSO modulation of the QBO (2024)
  • Author(s): Kawatani Yoshio、Hamilton Kevin、Watanabe Shingo、Anstey James A.、Richter Jadwiga H.、Butchart Neal、Orbe Clara、Osprey Scott M.、Naoe Hiroaki、Elsbury Dillon et al.
  • Journal Title: Weather and Climate Dynamics Discussion Volume: -
  • DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-3270
  • Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Climatology of the terms and variables of transformed Eulerian-mean (TEM) equations from multiple reanalyses: MERRA-2, JRA-55, ERA-Interim, and CFSR (2024)
  • Author(s): Fujiwara Masatomo、Martineau Patrick、Wright Jonathon S.、Abalos Marta、Sacha Petr、Kawatani Yoshio、Davis Sean M.、Birner Thomas、Monge-Sanz Beatriz M.
  • Journal Title: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Volume: 24 Issue: 13 Pages: 7873-7898
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-7873-2024
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Comparison between non‐orographic gravity‐wave parameterizations used in QBOi models and Strateole 2 constant‐level balloons (2024)
  • Author(s): Lott F.、 et al and Yoshida K.
  • Journal Title: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Volume: 150 Issue: 763 Pages: 3721-3736
  • DOI: 10.1002/qj.4793
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] Effects of Mid‐Latitude Oceanic Fronts on the Middle Atmosphere Through Upward Propagating Atmospheric Waves (2024)
  • Author(s): Kawatani Y.、Nakamura H.、Watanabe S.、Sato K.
  • Journal Title: Geophysical Research Letters Volume: 51 Issue: 6
  • DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108262
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Storylines of Projected Climate Changes around Japan Associated with Upper Troposphere and Stratosphere Responses (2022)
  • Author(s): Kawatani, Y., T. Horinouchi, N. Sato
  • Journal Title: SOLA Volume: 18 Issue: 0 Pages: 122-128
  • DOI: 10.2151/sola.2022-020
  • ISSN: 1349-6476
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Presentation] QBOi El Nino Southern Oscillation experiments Part I: Overview of experiment design and ENSO modulation of the QBO (2025)
  • Author(s): Kawatani, Y., Hamilton, K., Watanabe, S., Anstey, J. A., Richter, J. H., Butchart, N., Orbe, C., Osprey, S. M., Naoe, H., Elsbury, D., Chen, C.-C., Garcia-Serrano, J., Glanville, A., Kerzenmacher, T., Lott, F., Palmerio, F. M., Park, M., Serva, F., Taguchi, M., Versick, S., and Yoshioda, K
  • Organizer: the QSQ 2025 workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Summary of S(A)PARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S/A-RIP) Phase 1 and Plans for Phase 2 (2024)
  • Author(s): FUJIWARA, Masatomo, MANNEY, Gloria, WRIGHT, Jonathon
  • Organizer: 9TH GLOBAL ENERGY AND WATEREXCHANGES (GEWEX) OPEN SCIENCE CONFERENCE
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Stratospheric ozone, temperature, and circulation responses to the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai eruption in JRA-3Q, ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55 reanalyses (2024)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon S. Wright, Marta Abalos, Sean M. Davis, Mohamadou A. Diallo, and Xinyue Wang
  • Organizer: Quadrennial Ozone Symposium (QOS) 2024
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] A-RIP “dynamical overview” (Extension from S-RIP Final Report Chapter 3) (2024)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara, Laura Ciasto, Patrick Martineau, Jonathon Wright
  • Organizer: 2024 APARC Reanalysis Intercomparison (A-RIP) Planning Workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] In-situ stratospheric water vapour measurements using balloon-borne frost-point hygrometers: A GRUAN perspective (2024)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara
  • Organizer: ESA (European Space Agency) Water Vapour Climate Change Initiative - 2nd User workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Summary of S(A)-RIP Phase 1 and Plans for Phase 2: Chemical Reanalyses & Air Quality, Tropospheric Circulation, Extreme Events, and More (2024)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara, Gloria Manney, Jonathon S. Wright, Mohamadou A. Diallo, Felix Ploeger, Emma Knowland, Krzysztof Wargan, Sean Davis, Patrick Martineau, and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: The Sixth WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR6)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN) and its value for reanalysis evaluation (2024)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara, Fabio Madonna, Ruud Dirksen, Peter Thorne, and Working Group on GRUAN
  • Organizer: he Sixth WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR6)
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] GRUAN: A reference upper-air sounding network for climate monitoring (2024)
  • Author(s): 藤原正智
  • Organizer: 地球電磁気・地球惑星圏学会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Impact of Cumulus Parameterization on the QBO (2024)
  • Author(s): Watanabe, S
  • Organizer: the QSQ 2025 workshop
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Effects of mid-latitude SST fronts on the middle atmosphere through upward propagating atmospheric waves (2023)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄、中村尚、佐藤薫、渡辺真吾
  • Organizer: JpGU2023年大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Effects of mid-latitude SST fronts on the middle atmosphere through upward propagating atmospheric waves (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hisashi Nakamura, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Mid-latitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions: Their Processes and Predictability
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Effects of mid-latitude SST fronts on the middle atmosphere through upward propagating atmospheric waves (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hisashi Nakamura, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe
  • Organizer: Japan-Israel Symposium on Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Effects of mid-latitude SST fronts on the middle atmosphere through upward propagating atmospheric waves (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hisashi Nakamura, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe
  • Organizer: IUGG2023
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Reducing uncertainty in projection of future changes in the stratospheric polar night jet in CMIP models (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Takeshi Horinouchi, Naoki Sato
  • Organizer: The International Workshop on “Communications on Future Changes of Extreme Weather with Reduced Uncertainty Based on Physical Understandings
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Effects of mid-latitude SST fronts on the middle atmosphere through upward propagating atmospheric waves (2023)
  • Author(s): Yoshio Kawatani, Hisashi Nakamura, Kaoru Sato, Shingo Watanabe
  • Organizer: International Conference on the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] 成層圏QBO研究に関する最近の動向と今後の展望 (2023)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2023年秋季大会
• [Presentation] Does better tropospheric circulation bring better QBO? (2023)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe, Yoshio Kawatani
  • Organizer: Joint SPARC DynVar - SNAP Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Does better tropospheric circulation bring better QBO? (2023)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe, Yoshio Kawatani
  • Organizer: IUGG2023
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 全球大気再解析データと中層大気研究 (2023)
  • Author(s): 藤原正智
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2023年秋季大会
• [Presentation] Justfication for high altitude attainment for balloon soundings at GRUAN and other sites (2023)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara
  • Organizer: GRUAN 15th Implementation and Coordination Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and Plans for Its Phase 2 (2023)
  • Author(s): Masatomo Fujiwara, Gloria L. Manney, Lesley J. Gray, Jonathon S. Wright and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: International Conference on the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 中緯度海洋前線が大気波動を通じて中層大気へ与える影響 (2023)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄、中村尚、佐藤薫、渡辺真吾
  • Organizer: 新学術研究領域Hotspot2会合
• [Presentation] Does better tropospheric circulation bring better QBO? (2023)
  • Author(s): Shingo Watanabe and Yoshio Kawatani
  • Organizer: Workshop on the QBO
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] 成層圏QBO研究に関わる最近の動向 (2022)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Journal of the Sciences Editorに関わる最近Atmosphericの動向 (2022)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2022年度秋季大会
• [Presentation] Storylines of projected climate changes around Japan associated with upper troposphere and stratosphere responses (2022)
  • Author(s): 河谷芳雄, 堀之内武, 佐藤尚毅
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合大会2022
• [Presentation] SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project（S-RIP）の概要とS-RIP Phase 2 計画について (2022)
  • Author(s): 藤原正智, Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Wright, J. S., and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: 日本気象学会2022年度春季大会
• [Presentation] SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project（S-RIP）の概要とS-RIP ‘Phase 2’の 計画 (2022)
  • Author(s): 藤原正智, Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Wright, J. S., and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: 日本地球惑星科学連合2022年大会
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and Plans for Its ‘Phase 2’ (2022)
  • Author(s): Fujiwara, M., Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Wright, J. S., and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 19th Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Overview of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) and Plans for Its Phase 2 (2022)
  • Author(s): Fujiwara, M., Manney, G. L., Gray, L. J., Wright, J. S., and the S-RIP team
  • Organizer: SPARC 2022 GENERAL ASSEMBLY
  • Int'l Joint Research / Invited
• [Presentation] Analysis of the Meteorological Fields in Aviation Accident Cases Due to Clear Air Turbulence (2022)
  • Author(s): Uchida, H., Fujiwara, M., Kim, J.-H., and Sharman, R.
  • Organizer: Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS) 19th Annual Meeting
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Remarks] Yoshio Kawatani
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/site/yoshiokawatani/
• [Remarks] Masatomo Fujiwara
  • URL: https://wwwoa.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~fuji/index_jp.html
• [Remarks] Masatomo Fujiwara
  • URL: http://wwwoa.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~fuji/index_jp.html
• [Remarks]
  • URL: https://sites.google.com/site/yoshiokawatani/
• [Remarks]
  • URL: http://wwwoa.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/~fuji/
• [Remarks]
  • URL: https://www.jamstec.go.jp/souran/html/Shingo_Watanabe_7a12f-e.html