Computational approach to security dilemma: understanding state rivalry through multilingual longitudinal analysis of foreign news

• Project/Area Number: 23K25490
• Project/Area Number (Other): 23H00793 (2023)
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund (2024); Single-year Grants (2023)
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 06020:International relations-related
• Research Institution: Waseda University
• Principal Investigator: 渡辺 耕平 早稲田大学, 高等研究所, その他(招聘研究員) (50832466)
• Project Period (FY): 2023-04-01 – 2027-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
• Budget Amount: ¥18,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥14,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥4,260,000); Fiscal Year 2026: ¥520,000 (Direct Cost: ¥400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥120,000); Fiscal Year 2025: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2024: ¥7,930,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,830,000); Fiscal Year 2023: ¥8,320,000 (Direct Cost: ¥6,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,920,000)
• Keywords: テキスト分析 / 脅威認識 / International security / Text analysis

Outline of Research at the Start

We will develop a new data science approach to security dilemmas, focusing on the role of hostile rhetoric in fueling mistrust and tension between states. Using machine learning algorithms, we will demonstrate how textual data sourced from news articles can be used to (1) track changing levels of trust and mistrust between states and (2) identify how action-reaction cycles of threat form. We choose a sample countries (e.g. Russia, China, Iran, United States, Australia, India, Germany, and Japan) and apply advanced computational methods to perform cross-lingual comparative analysis.