Estimation of elderly people residents distribution and damage amount in landslide disaster area

• Project/Area Number: 24501294
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Geography
• Research Institution: Tokyo Metropolitan University
• Principal Investigator: NAKAYAMA Daichi 首都大学東京, 都市環境科学研究科, 助教 (90336511)
• Project Period (FY): 2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
• Budget Amount: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000); Fiscal Year 2012: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
• Keywords: 自然災害 / 土砂災害 / 災害の被害予測 / 人口分布 / 高齢者 / 災害弱者

Outline of Final Research Achievements

We proposed new methods which estimate population distribution taking into account of building distribution in steep slope area. Method 1 estimated population distribution based on using number of residents and Method 2 estimated population distribution based on 3 types of resident categories. Comparing estimated population using each method, there were statistically significant differences between the results from conventional method and those from proposed methods. The proposed methods can estimate population exactly reflecting the density of buildings on the steep slopes.
We verified the estimated population in the steep slope collapse hazard area using building data. The result of the proposed population estimation methods reflects the actual population distribution much better than that of the conventional method. The estimated population around the steep slope areas from the proposed methods was useful information to evaluate each steep slope.

Research Products

• [Presentation] Estimated population map in urban landslide area, Kamakura city, Japan (2013)
  • Author(s): Nakayama, D., Hiramatsu, Y. and Matsuyama, H.
  • Organizer: 2013 ESRI International User Conference
  • Place of Presentation: San Diego, United States
• [Presentation] The evaluation of the settle slope collapse hazard area considering the distribution of the population and buildings (2013)
  • Author(s): Nakayama, D., Hiramatsu, Y. and Matsuyama, H.
  • Organizer: IGU 2013 Kyoto Regional Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Kyoto, Japan