| Project/Area Number |
24510020
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Environmental dynamic analysis
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| Research Institution | Waseda University |
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Principal Investigator |
Ohta Shunji 早稲田大学, 人間科学学術院, 教授 (10288045)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,460,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,260,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000)
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| Keywords | 環境変動 / 生物・環境モデル / 地球温暖化 / 生態系影響評価 / 健康影響評価 / 熱収支気候学 / 水温評価モデル / 個体群動態モデル / 感染症媒介生物 / 感染症 / 熱収支 / 水収支 / 気候条件 / 灌漑 / 半乾燥域 / 生理生態的特性 / ハマダラカ |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
First, a coupled model with ecophysiological and climatological factors was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the species of dominant malaria vectors (Anopheles spp.) in monsoon Asia, using simple climate data. Then, we examined how the potential distribution obtained from the model could explain trends in malaria incidence observed in India, which has the highest number of confirmed cases of malaria in Asia. As a result, it was found that malaria incidence tended to increase exponentially as vector generation number increased. In addition, the observed seasonal peak of malaria incidences corresponded closely to the simulated appearance period of vector species, except for intensively irrigated areas that experience anthropogenic impacts on hydrologic conditions. Therefore, a new, modified model that includes irrigation as a factor was developed to predict the active growing period of mosquitoes more precisely than the base.
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