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Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Generation Power based on Chaotic Behaviors and Power Smoothig Control Methods

Research Project

Project/Area Number 24560333
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Power engineering/Power conversion/Electric machinery
Research InstitutionOkayama University

Principal Investigator

Funabiki Shigeyuki  岡山大学, 自然科学研究科, 教授 (60108123)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) TAKAHASHI Akiko  岡山大学, 大学院自然科学研究科, 助教 (10644213)
Project Period (FY) 2012-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
Keywords太陽光発電 / 発電電力変動 / カオス / 予測 / 電力平滑化 / エネルギー貯蔵装置 / 電力変動 / 電力平滑化制御
Outline of Final Research Achievements

We developed a short-term prediction method for electric power generated by the photovoltaic generation system using the Chaos Theory (Chaos short-term prediction). The experimental verification showed that the proposed prediction method can predict generation power with error of 20 %. In the subsequent step, we proposed a novel method to predict generation power using a series of difference vectors for improving the time delay in the chaos short-term prediction. It is found from the comparative study of the power smoothing control methods that the exponential smoothing is superior to the moving average from a viewpoint of the reduction in the storage capacity of energy storage device.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • 2012 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (31 results)

All 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 4 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (24 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] 太陽光発電電力変動の分離とカオス解析2016

    • Author(s)
      髙橋明子、山形彰宏、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌B

      Volume: 136

    • NAID

      130005160696

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Power Smoothing Control of Photovoltaic Generation Systems using a Difference Vector Method2016

    • Author(s)
      髙橋明子、槇野友久、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Journal Title

      IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy

      Volume: 136 Issue: 3 Pages: 268-274

    • DOI

      10.1541/ieejpes.136.268

    • NAID

      130005132253

    • ISSN
      0385-4213, 1348-8147
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] A Comparison of Electric Power Smoothing Control Methods for the Distributed Generation System2014

    • Author(s)
      金平知之、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳 繁之
    • Journal Title

      IEEJ Transactions on Power and Energy

      Volume: 134 Issue: 7 Pages: 596-603

    • DOI

      10.1541/ieejpes.134.596

    • NAID

      130004446665

    • ISSN
      0385-4213, 1348-8147
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 分散型電源システムにおける電力平滑化制御法の比較2014

    • Author(s)
      金平知之,髙橋明子,今井 純,舩曳繁之
    • Journal Title

      電気学会論文誌B

      Volume: 134

    • NAID

      130004446665

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] ARIMAモデルを用いたPV電力平滑化制御指令値の決定2016

    • Author(s)
      多田雄貴、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-16
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 電力平滑化制御に用いるデジタルフィルタの比較2015

    • Author(s)
      吉田雄一、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成27年電気関連学会関西連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪電気通信大学
    • Year and Date
      2015-11-14
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Reduction of Energy Storage Capacity in a Large-scale Photovoltaic Generation System2014

    • Author(s)
      T. Makino, A. Takahashi, J. Imai, S. Funabiki
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of the 6th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-23 – 2014-11-27
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation of the Output from the Photovoltaic Systems Using the Estimated Solar Radiation Distribution2014

    • Author(s)
      T. Kinoshita, A. Takahashi, J. Imai, S. Funabiki
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of the 6th World Conference on Photovoltaic Energy Conversion
    • Place of Presentation
      Kyoto, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-23 – 2014-11-27
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] クリギング法を用いた日射量分布推定におけるバリオグラム関数のパラメータの検討2014

    • Author(s)
      木下達也、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成26年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      福山市
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 太陽光発電電力の気象変動成分の周期に関する検討2014

    • Author(s)
      山形彰宏、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成26年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      福山市
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] ニューラルネットワークを用いた太陽光発電電力予測法の実験的検証2014

    • Author(s)
      青木公佑、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成26年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      福山市
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-25
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Energy Management Method for Residential Distributed Generation System using Photovoltaic Cells and Fuel Cell Vehicle2014

    • Author(s)
      S. Sakae, A. Takahashi, J. Imai, S. Funabiki
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of IEEE IAS Annual Meeting 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-05 – 2014-10-09
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 水素貯蔵分散型電源システムにおける太陽光発電電力の短周期成分平滑化制御法2014

    • Author(s)
      岡田成平、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成26年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会
    • Place of Presentation
      京田辺市
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-10 – 2014-09-12
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 遺伝的アルゴリズムを用いた太陽光発電電力予測法のパラメータ最適化2014

    • Author(s)
      青木公佑、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成26年電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会
    • Place of Presentation
      京田辺市
    • Year and Date
      2014-09-10 – 2014-09-12
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Power Smoothing Control Methods using Moving Average and FIR Filter in Distributed Generation Systems2014

    • Author(s)
      Y. Yoshida, A. Takahashi, J. Imai, S. Funabiki
    • Organizer
      Proceedings of Grand Renewable Energy 2014
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, Japan
    • Year and Date
      2014-07-27 – 2014-08-01
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Comparison of Electric Power Smoothing Control Methods for the Distributed Generation Systems2013

    • Author(s)
      Tomoyuki Kanehira, Akiko Takahashi, Jun Imai, Shigeyuki Funabiki
    • Organizer
      IEEE PEDS 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Kitakyusyu, Japan
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Short-Term Prediction of Power Fluctuations in Photovoltaic Systems Using Chaos Theory2013

    • Author(s)
      Kouhei Shibata, Akiko Takahashi, Jun Imai, Shigeyuki Funabiki
    • Organizer
      IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 分散型電源システムにおける電力平滑化制御法の比較2013

    • Author(s)
      金平知之、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成25年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] カオス短期間予測を用いた太陽光発電電力の長期予測不能性の検証2013

    • Author(s)
      柴田恒平、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成25年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 大規模太陽光発電システムの発電電力予測を用いた電力貯蔵装置容量の低減効果2013

    • Author(s)
      槙野友久、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      平成25年度電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 太陽光発電電力のカオス短期間予測の実験的検証2013

    • Author(s)
      山形彰宏、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      IEEE HISS 15th
    • Place of Presentation
      鳥取大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 大規模太陽光発電システムの発電電力予測2013

    • Author(s)
      槙野友久、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 太陽光発電電力のカオス短期間予測法の実験的検証2013

    • Author(s)
      山形彰宏、髙橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気学会全国大会
    • Place of Presentation
      名古屋大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Comparison of Electric Power Smoothing Control Methods for the Distributed Generation Systems2013

    • Author(s)
      Tomoyuki Kanehira, Akiko Takahashi, Jun Imai, Shigeyuki Funabiki
    • Organizer
      IEEE PEDS 2013
    • Place of Presentation
      Kitakyushu
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Short-Term Prediction of Power Fluctuations in Photovoltaic Systems Using Chaos Theory2013

    • Author(s)
      Kouhei Shibata, Akiko Takahashi, Jun Imai, Shigeyuki Funabiki
    • Organizer
      2013 IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Vancouver, Canada
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] カオス短期間予測によるPV電力平滑化システムのEDLC容量低減と変動縮小効果2012

    • Author(s)
      柴田恒平、金平知之、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気学会電力・エネルギー部門大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海道大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 分散型電源システムにおける移動平均法と指数平滑法を用いた電力平滑化制御法の比較2012

    • Author(s)
      金平知之、高橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      島根大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] カオス短期間予測における遅れ時間の太陽光発電電力予測精度への影響2012

    • Author(s)
      柴田恒平、高橋明子、今井 純、舩曳繁之
    • Organizer
      電気・情報関連学会中国支部大会
    • Place of Presentation
      島根大学
    • Related Report
      2012 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 電気エネルギー・システム制御研究室

    • URL

      http://www.ec.okayama-u.ac.jp/~psc/

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 電気エネルギー・システム制御工学研究室

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 電気エネルギー・システム制御研究室HP

    • URL

      http://www.psc.ec.okayama-u.ac.jp/index.html

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2013-05-31   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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