Short-term Prediction of Photovoltaic Generation Power based on Chaotic Behaviors and Power Smoothig Control Methods
| Project/Area Number |
24560333
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Power engineering/Power conversion/Electric machinery
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| Research Institution | Okayama University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
TAKAHASHI Akiko 岡山大学, 大学院自然科学研究科, 助教 (10644213)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥910,000 (Direct Cost: ¥700,000、Indirect Cost: ¥210,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥3,250,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥750,000)
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| Keywords | 太陽光発電 / 発電電力変動 / カオス / 予測 / 電力平滑化 / エネルギー貯蔵装置 / 電力変動 / 電力平滑化制御 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed a short-term prediction method for electric power generated by the photovoltaic generation system using the Chaos Theory (Chaos short-term prediction). The experimental verification showed that the proposed prediction method can predict generation power with error of 20 %. In the subsequent step, we proposed a novel method to predict generation power using a series of difference vectors for improving the time delay in the chaos short-term prediction. It is found from the comparative study of the power smoothing control methods that the exponential smoothing is superior to the moving average from a viewpoint of the reduction in the storage capacity of energy storage device.
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(31 results)
