Development of new flood forecasting system using ensemble precipitation forecasts
| Project/Area Number |
24560632
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Hydraulic engineering
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| Research Institution | Public Works Research Institute |
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Principal Investigator |
USHIYAMA Tomoki 独立行政法人土木研究所, その他部局等, 研究員 (50466257)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
SAYAMA Takahiro 土木研究所, 水災害・リスクマネジメント国際センター (70402930)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2012-04-01 – 2015-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2014)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥5,200,000 (Direct Cost: ¥4,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,200,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2012: ¥2,080,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥480,000)
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| Keywords | 洪水予測 / 数値天気予報 / アンサンブル予報 / データ同化 / 水文流出モデル / 流出モデル / 集中豪雨 / 台風 / 降水予報 / 連携研究者交流 |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The numerical weather prediction (NWP) has been steadily improved its accuracy. Instead, the quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) by NWP are not utilized in flood forecasting yet. We developed a new flood forecasting system utilizing regional ensemble prediction system. We applied this system to two typhoon cases and a Baiu frontal torrential rainfall case which caused flood damages in recent years. The system predicted rainfall and discharge better than conventional methods without ensemble prediction system. This implies it has a potential to realize flood forecasting by NWP. However, the forecast accuracy is highly dependent on applied events. Although, one typhoon case showed acceptable forecast accuracy, the flood forecasting for a Baiu frontal case was low performance. It needs persistent evaluation for the goal of operational application.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(15 results)
