Predicting future biodiversity of ecosystem service providers in Japan using new approaches to quantify and reduce uncertainty

• Project/Area Number: 24K09176
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Review Section: Basic Section 41050:Environmental agriculture-related
• Research Institution: Tohoku University
• Principal Investigator: KASS Jamie 東北大学, 生命科学研究科, 准教授 (10927586)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): 石濱 史子 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 主任研究員 (80414358) ; 小出 大 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 気候変動適応センター, 研究員 (50761061) ; 大野 ゆかり 東北大学, 生命科学研究科, 博士研究員 (20722234)
• Project Period (FY): 2024-04-01 – 2027-03-31
• Project Status: Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
• Budget Amount: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000); Fiscal Year 2026: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2025: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000); Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
• Keywords: 生物多様性 / 種分布モデル / 生態系サービス / 気候変動 / 不確実性

Outline of Research at the Start

We depend on species to provide ecosystem services, but climate change will alter biodiversity patterns and thus affect key services. We will model future biodiversity change for pollinators and wild food plants in Japan and make maps of service potential and model uncertainty to inform management.