| Project/Area Number |
24K09176
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Review Section |
Basic Section 41050:Environmental agriculture-related
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| Research Institution | Tohoku University |
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Principal Investigator |
KASS Jamie 東北大学, 生命科学研究科, 准教授 (10927586)
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| Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) |
石濱 史子 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 生物多様性領域, 主幹研究員 (80414358)
小出 大 国立研究開発法人国立環境研究所, 気候変動適応センター, 主任研究員 (50761061)
大野 ゆかり 東北大学, 生命科学研究科, 客員研究者 (20722234)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2024-04-01 – 2027-03-31
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| Project Status |
Granted (Fiscal Year 2024)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2026: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2025: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2024: ¥1,300,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,000,000、Indirect Cost: ¥300,000)
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| Keywords | biodiversity / ecosystem services / geospatial analysis / pollinators / species traits / statistical modeling / uncertainty / wild foods / 生物多様性 / 種分布モデル / 生態系サービス / 気候変動 / 不確実性 |
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| Outline of Research at the Start |
We depend on species to provide ecosystem services, but climate change will alter biodiversity patterns and thus affect key services. We will model future biodiversity change for pollinators and wild food plants in Japan and make maps of service potential and model uncertainty to inform management.
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| Outline of Annual Research Achievements |
We made much progress this year on data collection, data processing, and methods. One of our goals was to complete data acquisition and cleaning. We have identified all data sources we should need for modeling, including species occurrence records, species trait data, and environmental raster data. My lab has also taken new trait data for some honeybee species to improve sampling evenness in our database. The other goal was to advance species distribution and biodiversity modeling. We now have an operational workflow to estimate and map species distributions and functional diversity patterns. This is part of a student's master's research in my lab (Megan Low). Kass and Low gave presentations at the Ecology Society of Japan conference (March 2025) related to this project.
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| Current Status of Research Progress |
Current Status of Research Progress
2: Research has progressed on the whole more than it was originally planned.
Reason
We have mostly accomplished our two goals for this fiscal year set in our timeline in the proposal. What remains is to transfer datasets to our server in the Macroecology Lab, finalize the code that runs the models, and produce optimal species distribution models and functional diversity models that we can use for the next steps in our analysis. Co-PI Ishihama has done substantial work on the species distribution model workflow, which includes methods to estimate algorithm uncertainty, and co-PI Ohno has helped to clean and update the citizen science database for honeybees. Co-PI Koide was busy with research in France, but nonetheless was able to prepare his plant data, and he plans to take a more direct role this fiscal year.
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| Strategy for Future Research Activity |
The next steps for fiscal year 2025 include finalizing our models and using them to make climate change predictions of range shifts, calculating different aspects of methodological uncertainty and mapping these values over space, and working on our first paper on this research. We also plan to give presentations related to this research at conferences (at least one international and one national for Kass, one national for co-PIs, and likely one for student Low).
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