Studies in Theory and Applications of DEA for Forecasting Purpose

• Project/Area Number: 25282090
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• Allocation Type: Partial Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Social systems engineering/Safety system
• Research Institution: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
• Principal Investigator: Tone Kaoru 政策研究大学院大学, 政策研究科, 名誉教授 (00051235)
• Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha): FUKUYAMA Hirofumi 福岡大学, 商学部, 教授 (80218958)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
• Budget Amount: ¥12,870,000 (Direct Cost: ¥9,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥2,970,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,550,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,050,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,030,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥930,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
• Keywords: DEA / Forecast / Resampling / Entropy / Dynamic DEA / Efficiency / Bankruptcy / Dynamic-Network DEA / Dynamic and Network DEA / 効率性 / 予測 / 包絡分析法

Outline of Final Research Achievements

(1) We developed a method for evaluating representative forecasting methods by means of DEA. Our method uses multiple criteria whereas most existing methods employ a single criterion. We applied the method to forecasting WTI crude oil price.(2) We developed a new method for evaluating confidential intervals of DEA scores. We can apply this method for past-present time series data as well as past-present-future data. (3) We employ the entropy maximization model for forecasting volatile future scenario and evaluate the past-present-future overall efficiency scores by applying Dynamic DEA models.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] DEA Scores' Confidence Intervals with Past-Present and Past-Present-Future Based Resampling (2016)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone, Jamal Ouenniche
  • Journal Title: American Journal of Operations Research Volume: 6 Issue: 02 Pages: 121-135
  • DOI: 10.4236/ajor.2016.62015
  • NAID: 120007125119
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
• [Journal Article] How to deal with Non-convex Frontiers in Data Envelopment Analysis (2015)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone, Miki Tsutsui
  • Journal Title: Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications Volume: 166 Issue: 3 Pages: 1002-1028
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10957-014-0626-3
  • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Decomposing technical efficiency and scale elasticity in two-stage network DEA (2014)
  • Author(s): Sahoo, Zhu, Tone and Klemen
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Operational Research Volume: 233 Issue: 3 Pages: 584-594
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2013.09.046
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Data envelopment analysis: Prior to choosing a model (2014)
  • Author(s): Cook, Tone and Zhu
  • Journal Title: OMEGA Volume: 44 Pages: 1-4
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2013.09.004
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Estimation of the efficiency of Japanese hospitals using a dynamic and network data envelopment analysis model (2014)
  • Author(s): Hiroyuki Kawaguchi, Tone Kaoru, Miki Tsutsui
  • Journal Title: Health Care Management Science Volume: 17 Issue: 2 Pages: 101-112
  • DOI: 10.1007/s10729-013-9248-9
  • NAID: 120006683683
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Relative Performance Evaluation of Competing Crude Oil Prices’ Volatility Forecasting Models: A Slacks-Based Super-Efficiency DEA Model (2014)
  • Author(s): Ouenniche, Xu and Tone
  • Journal Title: American Journal of Operations Research Volume: 4 Issue: 04 Pages: 235-245
  • DOI: 10.4236/ajor.2014.44023
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Cost, revenue and profit efficiency measurement in DEA: A directional distance function approach (2014)
  • Author(s): Sahoo, Mehdiloozad and Tone
  • Journal Title: European Journal of Operational Research Volume: 237 Issue: 3 Pages: 921-931
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2014.02.017
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Forecasting Models Evaluation Using A Slacks-Based Context-Dependent DEA Framework (2014)
  • Author(s): Ouenniche, Xu and Tone
  • Journal Title: Journal of Applied Business Research Volume: 30 Pages: 1477-1484
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
• [Journal Article] Distance optimization approach to ratio-form efficiency measures in data envelopment analysis (2014)
  • Author(s): Hirofumi Fukuyama, Hiroya Masaki, Kazuyuki Sekitani, Jianming Shi
  • Journal Title: Journal of Productivity Analysis Volume: (採録決定) Issue: 2 Pages: 175-186
  • DOI: 10.1007/s11123-013-0366-7
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Past-present-future Intertemporal DEA models (2014)
  • Author(s): Tsung-Sheng Chang, Kaoru Tone, Chen-Hui Wu
  • Journal Title: Journal of the Operational Research Society Volume: 印刷中 Issue: 1 Pages: 16-32
  • DOI: 10.1057/jors.2013.139
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Dynamic DEA with network structure A slacks-based measure approach (2013)
  • Author(s): K. Tone, M. Tsutsui
  • Journal Title: OMEGA Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Pages: 124-131
  • DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2013.04.002
  • NAID: 120006683690
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Journal Article] Ｍ＆Ａインディケータによる道州制導入の評価 -関西への適用 (2013)
  • Author(s): 橋本敦夫、福山博文
  • Journal Title: オペレーションズ・リサーチ Volume: 58 Pages: 289-297
  • NAID: 110009603995
  • Peer Reviewed
• [Presentation] DEA models incorporating future performance (2015)
  • Author(s): Tsung-Sheng Chang, Kaoru Tone, Chew-Hui Wu
  • Organizer: Workshop 2015 Advances in DEA Theory and Applications
  • Place of Presentation: 政策研究大学院大学（東京都港区）
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-01
• [Presentation] Resampling in Data Envelopment Analysis illustrated by a hospital example (2015)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone
  • Organizer: Workshop 2015 Advances in DEA Theory and Applications
  • Place of Presentation: 政策研究大学院大学（東京都港区）
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-01
• [Presentation] SBM variations revisited (2015)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone
  • Organizer: INFORMS
  • Place of Presentation: Philadelphia, USA
  • Year and Date: 2015-11-01
  • Int'l Joint Research
• [Presentation] Setting handicaps to industrial sectors in DEA (2014)
  • Author(s): K. Tone
  • Organizer: OR56 Annual Conference
  • Place of Presentation: Royal Holloway, University of London, London, United Kingdom
  • Year and Date: 2014-09-09
  • Invited
• [Presentation] Resampling in DEA (2014)
  • Author(s): K. Tone
  • Organizer: IFORS 2014
  • Place of Presentation: Barcelona International Convention Center, Barcelona, Spain
  • Year and Date: 2014-07-17
• [Presentation] Modeling bank production with dynamic-network Data Envelopment Analysis (2014)
  • Author(s): H. Fukuyama, W.L. Weber
  • Organizer: 12th international Conference on Data envelopment Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
  • Year and Date: 2014-04-15 – 2014-04-17
• [Presentation] How to Deal with S-shaped Curve in DEA (2013)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone
  • Organizer: The Operational Research Society, UK
  • Place of Presentation: University of Exeter, UK
  • Invited
• [Presentation] A scale and cluster adjusted DEA model (2013)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone
  • Organizer: European Workshop on Efficiency and Productivity
  • Place of Presentation: Aalto University, Finland
• [Presentation] Input-oriented enhanced radial efficiency measures and Malmquist Indexes on DEA technologies: An application to Japanese Banking (2013)
  • Author(s): Hirofumi Fukuyama
  • Organizer: European Workshop on Efficiency and Productivity
  • Place of Presentation: Aalto University, Finland
• [Presentation] Measuring Dynamic-Network Inefficiency with an Application to Regional Economies (2013)
  • Author(s): Hirofumi Fukuyama
  • Organizer: International Conference on Data Envelopment Analysis
  • Place of Presentation: University Samsun, Turkey
• [Book] Data Envelopment Analysis -A Handbook of Modeling Internal Structure and Network (2014)
  • Author(s): Kaoru Tone, Miki Tsutsui
  • Total Pages: 599
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Book] Data Envelopment Analysis -A Handbook of Modeling Internal Structure and Network (2014)
  • Author(s): Fukuyama, H. and W.L. Weber (2014).
  • Total Pages: 599
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Book] Data Envelopment Analysis -A Handbook of Modeling Internal Structure and Network (2014)
  • Author(s): Biresh K Sahoo, Joe Zhu, Kaoru Tone
  • Total Pages: 599
  • Publisher: Springer
• [Book] Efficiency and Productivity Growth: Modelling in the Financial Services Industry (2013)
  • Author(s): Fukuyama, H. and W.L. Weber
  • Total Pages: 530
  • Publisher: Wiley
• [Funded Workshop] Workshop on Advances in DEA Theory and Applications (2015)
  • Place of Presentation: 政策研究大学院大学（東京都港区）
  • Year and Date: 2015-12-01