| Budget Amount *help |
¥13,260,000 (Direct Cost: ¥10,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥3,060,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥4,290,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥990,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
|
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
In this paper, we examine the application of the Bayesian network for accident occurrence modeling, which can reveal the causal relationships between human factors in maneuvering vessels and ship collisions. Then we create risk analysis models for the collision accidents using the Bayesian network. This model consists of three major components which are; (a) the model of ship maneuvering, (b) the model of collision factors and, (c) the model of effective factors for Risk Control Options (RCOs) as safety measures to reduce collision risks. Collision Risks are analyzed by using the conditional probability table calculated using the constructed collision database. Evaluation of RCOs for collision is calculated using the effective dominance index. Finally, a trial cost-benefit analysis for RCOs is considered through gross cost of averting fatality index in the guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) approved by IMO (International Maritime Organization) in 2002.
|
