| Project/Area Number |
25330052
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Statistical science
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| Research Institution | The Institute of Statistical Mathematics |
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Principal Investigator |
Zhuang Jiancang 統計数理研究所, 大学共同利用機関等の部局等, 准教授 (70465920)
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| Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) |
KATO Shogo 統計数理研究所, 数理・推論研究系, 准教授 (60468535)
OGATA Yosihiko 統計数理研究所, 名誉教授 (70000213)
KUMAZAWA Takao 統計数理研究所, リスク解析戦略研究センター, 特任研究員 (60649482)
IWATA Takaki 常磐大学, コミュニティ振興学部, 准教授 (30418991)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,820,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥420,000)
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| Keywords | ETASモデル / 確率利得 / 非地震性異常 / 分岐クラックモデル / 重み付き最尤推定量 / 残差分析 / 震源メカニズム / 地震断層形状 / 重力異常 / パリミュチュエルギャンブリング評価法 / 最大マグニチュード / Molchanエラー図 / 地下電場信号 / 確率予測 / GPS |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
This research is carried out in three directions. 1. Theoretic research: The criticality and stability conditions for a type of more general branching process are studied, providing what constraints should be obey when extending the ETAS model; The branching cracking can be used to explain many features of earthquake source ruptures. 2. Seismicity modelling and statistical inference: ETAS models incorporated with earthquake rupture geometry are developed, based on which the rupture geometry can be inverted from seismicity; Earthquake hypocenter depths are incorporated into a 3D high-resolution ETAS model; weighted likelihood estimates for space-time point processes have been proposed. 3. The precursory information in several kinds of non-seismicity anomalies has validated.
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