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Spatial distributions of physical parameters in depth inferred from seismic activity data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25330053
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Statistical science
Research InstitutionTokiwa University (2014-2015)
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics (2013)

Principal Investigator

Iwata Takaki  常磐大学, 公私立大学の部局等, 准教授 (30418991)

Co-Investigator(Renkei-kenkyūsha) OGATA Yosihiko  統計数理研究所, リスク解析戦略研究センター, 名誉教授 (70000213)
TODA Shinji  東北大学, 災害科学国際研究所, 教授 (80313047)
Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,680,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,600,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,080,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords統計科学 / 地震 / 点過程解析 / ベイズ統計 / 固体地球物理学 / マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法 / 地震サイクル / 摩擦パラメータ / 点過程 / ベイズ推定 / 地震活動 / 統計数学 / 逐次モンテカルロ法
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This project aimed to develop a statistical method to estimate the spatial distribution of slip of a large earthquake and to evaluate the spatial heterogeneity of frictional parameter. A uniqueness of the developed method is to use seismic activity data, which would contain physical information such as stress state in depth but has not been analyzed thoroughly. It was applied to the real aftershock sequences of several large events, in particular ones at a plate boundary. As a result of the analysis, inferred slip distributions are consistent with those estimated in previous studies. It is also revealed that the dependency of the frictional parameter upon depth is statistically significant.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (20 results)

All 2016 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (5 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (14 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 3 results,  Invited: 3 results) Remarks (1 results)

  • [Journal Article] A variety of aftershock decays in the rate- and state-friction model due to the effect of secondary aftershocks: implications derived from an analysis of real aftershock sequences2016

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      Pure and Applied Geophysics

      Volume: 173 Issue: 1 Pages: 21-33

    • DOI

      10.1007/s00024-015-1151-5

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] A quantitative evaluation of the annual variation in teleseismic detection capability at Syowa Station, Antarctica2015

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata, and Masaki Kanao
    • Journal Title

      Polar Science

      Volume: 9 Issue: 1 Pages: 26-34

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.polar.2014.10.002

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Decomposition2014

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Journal Title

      Decomposition of seasonality and long-term trend in seismological data: A bayesian modelling of earthquake detection capability

      Volume: 56 Issue: 3 Pages: 201-215

    • DOI

      10.1111/anzs.12079

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Decomposition of seasonality and long-term trend in seismological data: a Bayesian modelling of earthquake detection capability2014

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Journal Title

      Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics

      Volume: 56

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Estimation of completeness magnitude considering daily variation in earthquake detection capability2013

    • Author(s)
      Iwata, T.
    • Journal Title

      Geophysical Journal International

      Volume: 194 Issue: 3 Pages: 1909-1919

    • DOI

      10.1093/gji/ggt208

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Presentation] Mixture of a seismicity model based on the rate-and-state friction and ETAS model2015

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      2015 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Center(サンフランシスコ・米国)
    • Year and Date
      2015-12-18
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 摩擦構成則に基づく地震活動モデルの改良 ~ETASモデルとの混合~2015

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2015年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      神戸国際会議場(神戸市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-26
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Evaluation of temporal variation in earthquake detectability with time-dependent smoothness constrain2015

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      Asia Oceania Geoscience Society (AOGS) 12th Annual Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Suntec Singapore Convention & Exhibition Centre(シンガポール)
    • Year and Date
      2015-08-07
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] Development of a Bayesian method to estimate a fault slip distribution of a large earthquake from the spatial aftershock distribution and rate- and state-friction law: inclusion of information on magnitude as a prior distribution2015

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      The 9th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
    • Place of Presentation
      Arcona Hotel am Havelufer(ポツダム・ドイツ)
    • Year and Date
      2015-06-15
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 摩擦構成則と余震活動を用いた本震のすべり分布推定: マグニチュードの情報を用いたベイズモデル2015

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2015年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      幕張メッセ(千葉市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-05-26
    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] Statistical models to describe the spatio-temporal patterns of earthquakes: Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model and related models2015

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      School/Workshop on “Fluctuations, Slow Dynamics and Internal Time in Complex Critical Systems
    • Place of Presentation
      倉敷市芸文館および倉敷アイビースクエア
    • Year and Date
      2015-03-23 – 2015-03-26
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] Estimation of completeness magnitude with a Bayesian modeling of daily and weekly variations in earthquake detectability2014

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      2014 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Center (サンフランシスコ・米国)
    • Year and Date
      2014-12-15 – 2014-12-19
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 気象庁カタログにおける地震検知能力の週周期変化とcompleteness magnitude2014

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2014年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      朱鷺メッセ(新潟市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-11-24 – 2014-11-26
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 南極・昭和基地における遠地地震の検知能力の年周変化2014

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹, 金尾政紀
    • Organizer
      日本地球惑星科学連合2014年大会
    • Place of Presentation
      パシフィコ横浜(横浜市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-04-28 – 2014-05-02
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] A Bayesian approach to estimate the periodic change in earthquake detection capability and its applications to JMA catalogue

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      The 8th International Workshop on Statistical Seismology
    • Place of Presentation
      Zhongguanyuan Global Village, 北京大学, 中国
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 気象庁一元化震源における地震検知率の日・季節変化とcompleteness magnitude

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      気象庁地震火山部談話会
    • Place of Presentation
      気象庁(大手町・東京)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Invited
  • [Presentation] 地震検知能力の時間変化に関するベイズ推定

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      2013年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学豊中キャンパス
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 2007年能登半島地震の余震活動におけるb値の時間変化

    • Author(s)
      岩田貴樹
    • Organizer
      日本地震学会2013年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      神奈川県民ホール(横浜)
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Synchronous b-value change and crustal deformation following the 2007 Noto Peninsula Earthquake, Japan

    • Author(s)
      Takaki Iwata
    • Organizer
      2013 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting
    • Place of Presentation
      Moscone Center, サンフランシスコ, 米国
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 気象庁カタログのcompleteness magnitudeデータベース

    • URL

      http://www.ism.ac.jp/~ogata/Ssg/ssg_softwares.html

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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