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Statistic-based modeling for mapping marginal permafrost

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25350416
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Geography
Research InstitutionHokkaido University

Principal Investigator

Ishikawa Mamoru  北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究科(研究院), 准教授 (50373452)

Co-Investigator(Kenkyū-buntansha) SATO Tomonori  北海道大学, 地球環境科学研究院, 准教授 (10512270)
Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥2,860,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥660,000)
Keywords永久凍土分布 / 統計モデル / モンゴル / 不連続永久凍土帯 / 生態系サービス / 永久凍土 / 確率モデル / 地理情報 / 不連続永久凍土 / ロジスティック回帰分析
Outline of Final Research Achievements

This study aims to enhance conceptual framework for displaying the distribution of invisible permafrost, discontinuously distributed over southern marginal zone of Eurasian permafrost, Mongolia. Permafrost distribution is strongly controlled by several geographic factors such as latitudes, altitude, land cover type, and topographic concavities both in domestic and local scales. We have acquired numerous evidences related to permafrost yes/no through ground temperature measurements, and analyzed correlation among them through the multivariate analysis. Statistical model, representing relation between permafrost occurrence and geographical parameters was developed. The model is not only for predicting future permafrost dynamics but for quantitative analysis of degrading ecosystem services such as forest and river discharge.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (12 results)

All 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (7 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results,  Peer Reviewed: 5 results,  Acknowledgement Compliant: 1 results) Presentation (5 results)

  • [Journal Article] Formation Chronology of Arsain Pingo, Darhad Basin, Northern Mongolia2015

    • Author(s)
      Ishikawa, M & Jambaljav Y.
    • Journal Title

      Permafrost and Periglacial Processes

      Volume: N/A Issue: 3 Pages: 297-306

    • DOI

      10.1002/ppp.1877

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Int'l Joint Research / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] Temperature Regimes of the Active Layer and Seasonally Frozen Ground under a Forest-Steppe Mosaic, Mongolia2014

    • Author(s)
      Dashtseren A, Ishikawa M, Iijima Y, Jambaljav Y
    • Journal Title

      Permafrost and Periglacial Processes

      Volume: 25 Issue: 4 Pages: 295-306

    • DOI

      10.1002/ppp.1824

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 気候変動と永久凍土-全球規模での永久凍土観測網による知見-2014

    • Author(s)
      石川守
    • Journal Title

      気象研究ノート

      Volume: 230 Pages: 114-134

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 気候変動と永久凍土 -全球規模での永久凍土観測網による知見-2014

    • Author(s)
      石川守
    • Journal Title

      気象研究ノート

      Volume: 未定

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] Interannual and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchanges over the larch forests on the permafrost in northeastern Mongolia2014

    • Author(s)
      Miyazaki S., Ishikawa M., Baatarbileg N., Damdinsuren S. Ariuntuya N., Jambaljav Y.
    • Journal Title

      Polar Research

      Volume: 未定

    • NAID

      110009794533

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed
  • [Journal Article] 境界永久凍土の分布モデリング2013

    • Author(s)
      石川守,Y. Jambaljav,山橋いよ,S. Westermann, B. Etzelmueller
    • Journal Title

      北海道の雪氷

      Volume: 32 Pages: 126-129

    • NAID

      130005473279

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] シベリア南限の永久凍土分布の環境要因-確率の概念を用いた凍土分布図の作成に向けて-2013

    • Author(s)
      山橋いよ,石川守,Y. Jambaljav,S. Westermann, B. Etzelmueller
    • Journal Title

      北海道の雪氷

      Volume: 32 Pages: 130-133

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Vulnerability of Mongolian permafrost, Europen conference on Permafrost2014

    • Author(s)
      Ishikawa M, Jambaljav Y, Westermann S, Etzelmueller B.
    • Organizer
      4th European Conference on Permafrost
    • Place of Presentation
      Evora, Portugal
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-18 – 2014-06-21
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Vulnerability of boundary permafrost

    • Author(s)
      Ishikawa M., Y. Jambaljav, S. Westermann
    • Organizer
      2013 International Workshop on Terrestrial Change in Mongolia
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, JAMSTEC
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Probability mapping of Mongolian permafrost

    • Author(s)
      Yamahashi Y., M. Ishikawa, Y. Jambaljav, S. Westermann, B. Etzelmueller
    • Organizer
      2013 International Workshop on Terrestrial Change in Mongolia
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, JAMSTEC
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Interannual variation of seasonal course in energy and carbon fluxes over the larch forest on the permafrost of northeastern Mongolia

    • Author(s)
      Miyazaki S., Ishikawa M., Baatarbileg N., Damdinsuren S., Ariuntuya N., Y. Jambaljav, T. Jargaltulga
    • Organizer
      2013 International Workshop on Terrestrial Change in Mongolia
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, JAMSTEC
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] The effect of vegetation cover on the ground temperatures and solar radiation distribution at the southern edge of Eurasian permafrost in Mongolia

    • Author(s)
      Dashtseren A., Ishikawa M., Iijima Y., Jambaljav Y., T. Jargaltulga
    • Organizer
      2013 International Workshop on Terrestrial Change in Mongolia
    • Place of Presentation
      Tokyo, JAMSTEC
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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