Quantitative Analysis of Retail Power Market in Japan using a Dynamic Structural Model

Research Project

Project/Area Number	25380262
Research Category	Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
Allocation Type	Multi-year Fund
Section	一般
Research Field	Economic statistics
Research Institution	Hokkaido University
Principal Investigator	TAKAGI Shingo 北海道大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (10326283)
Project Period (FY)	2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status	Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help	¥4,160,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥960,000) Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000) Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000) Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Keywords	構造推定 / 電力自由化 / パネルデータ / 入札 / オークション / シミュレーション / 電力小売市場 / 政策効果 / 部分識別
Outline of Final Research Achievements	Empirical studies on the retail power market in Japan in this research project are based on two models; a static model and a dynamic model. The static model features the asymmetricity in the cost information sharing between agents. Under this assumption, we explicitly derive the bidding functions in a mixed strategy equilibrium. Based upon this formulation, we introduce a dynamic setting, where the former auction results affect the current biddings, and also derive the bidding strategy in an MPBE. We also study on the bias reduction methods for nonlinear panel data models with two-way fixed effects, and examine the finite sample performance of our method.