| Project/Area Number |
25380288
|
|---|
| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
|
| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
|---|
| Section | 一般 |
|---|
| Research Field |
Economic policy
|
|---|
| Research Institution | University of Toyama |
|---|
Principal Investigator |
|
|---|
| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
|
| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
|
| Budget Amount *help |
¥1,950,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥450,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
|
|---|
| Keywords | 住宅 / 資産価格 / 持ち家 / 出生 / プロスペクト理論 / 損失回避行動 / サバイバル分析 |
|---|
| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
The literature has shown that an increase in housing wealth exerts a positive effect on the birthrates of homeowners. According to canonical models, a decrease in housing wealth has a symmetric negative impact on fertility. That is, housing gains and losses of the same size have identical quantitative effects. In comparison, the reference-dependent preferences from prospect theory suggest that people care more about housing losses than equivalent gains, leading to an asymmetric effect on fertility. The purpose of this project is to empirically examine this prediction using longitudinal data on Japanese households. Consistent with our prediction, the fertility responses of homeowners are substantially larger for housing losses than gains. Our estimates indicate that a one million yen decrease in house values decreases the hazard rate of childbirth by approximately 11 percent, whereas a one million yen increase in house values increases in the childbirth hazard rate by a mere 1 percent.
|
