Applied General Equilibrium Analysis on Transformation of Social Structure in Japan

• Project/Area Number: 25380309
• Research Category: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• Allocation Type: Multi-year Fund
• Section: 一般
• Research Field: Economic policy
• Research Institution: Osaka Prefecture University
• Principal Investigator: Yoshida Motonori 大阪府立大学, 経済学研究科, 教授 (60360046)
• Project Period (FY): 2013-04-01 – 2018-03-31
• Project Status: Completed (Fiscal Year 2017)
• Budget Amount: ¥2,340,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥540,000); Fiscal Year 2016: ¥390,000 (Direct Cost: ¥300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥90,000); Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000); Fiscal Year 2014: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000); Fiscal Year 2013: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
• Keywords: 動学的応用一般均衡 / 世代重複モデル / 国債の日銀引受 / Monetaization / 財政の持続可能性 / パネルデータ分析 / 定常性 / 共和分 / 都道府県 / 政令市 / 中核市 / パネルデータ / Bohn / 政府財政の持続可能性 / 政令指定都市 / Fiscal sustainability / Direct underwriting / Public bonds / Central bank / Dynamic CGE model / OLG model / Local government debt / Manufacturing Industries / Productive Efficiency / Production Factor / DEA / AGE / OLG

Outline of Final Research Achievements

Firstly, I tackled to solve the question of whether Japanese public sector finance and Japanese economy are sustainable in future. In this study, I elucidated that "Monetization of Government's debt" makes Japanese public sector finance and Japanese economy become sustainable in future by a dynamic computable general equilibrium OLG (overlapping generations) model.
Next, I examined whether Japanese local governments have conducted their fiscal managements to keep their finances sustainable up to now. In order to answer this question, I adopted a Bohn (1998, 2005) test with panel data. The objects of this study were "ordinance-designated cities," "core cities," and prefecture governments. The results showed that only ordinance-designated cities and prefecture governments in relatively good fiscal condition could make effective efforts to keep their finances sustainable. Moreover, in the case of prefecture governments, I also considered the nonstationary and endogeneity issues.

Research Products

• [Journal Article] 政令指定都市と中核市財政の持続可能性 (2016)
  • Author(s): 吉田素教
  • Journal Title: Discussion Paper New Series (Osaka Prefecture University) Volume: No. 2016-4 Pages: 1-34
  • NAID: 120006720189
  • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Effects of Direct Underwriting of Public Bonds by the Central Bank in Japan (2015)
  • Author(s): Motonori Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Journal of Business & Economic Policy Volume: 2 Pages: 109-125
  • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Is Direct Underwriting of Public Bonds by the Central Bank an Effective Policy? (2015)
  • Author(s): Motonori Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Discussion Paper New Series (Osaka Prefecture University) Volume: No. 2015-1 Pages: 1-53
  • Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
• [Journal Article] Estimation of Production-factor Redundancy of Manufacturing Industries in Japan (2013)
  • Author(s): Motonori Yoshida
  • Journal Title: Journal of Economics, Business and Law Volume: 16 Pages: 27-49
  • NAID: 120006719698
• [Presentation] 政令指定都市と中核市財政の持続可能性 (2016)
  • Author(s): 吉田素教
  • Organizer: 日本評価学会
  • Place of Presentation: 広島大学
  • Year and Date: 2016-11-26
• [Presentation] Effects of Direct Underwriting of Public Bonds by the Central Bank in Japan (2015)
  • Author(s): 吉田 素教
  • Organizer: 日本財政学会
  • Place of Presentation: 中央大学（東京都文京区）
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-18
• [Presentation] Is Direcet Underwriting of Public Bonds by the Central Bank an Effective Policy in Japan? (2015)
  • Author(s): 吉田 素教
  • Organizer: 日本経済学会
  • Place of Presentation: 上智大学（東京都千代田区）
  • Year and Date: 2015-10-10
• [Book] 地方財政改革の検証 (2017)
  • Author(s): 橋本恭之・鈴木善充・木村真・小川亮・吉田素教
  • Total Pages: 317
  • Publisher: 清文社
  • ISBN: 9784433638870