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The influence for policy making decision and evaluation using Real-Time data and revision data

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25380330
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Economic policy
Research InstitutionNihon University

Principal Investigator

KOMAKI YASUYUKI  日本大学, 経済学部, 教授 (80339225)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
Budget Amount *help
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Keywordsリアルタイムデータ / リヴィジョンスタディ / 金融財政政策 / 私的情報 / 公開情報 / 認知ラグ / 消費税 / 駆け込み需要 / リアルタイム同時性 / CPIとデフレーター
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Macro-economic data will be revised, but preliminary figures are paid attention in decision making. Data revision is necessary for a process to reflect true economic situation to statistics, and it is not a problem to judge economic situation by preliminary data if we can predict the direction of revision. However, the data revision cannot be predicted, and the uncertainty of the preliminary data is a problem in decision making.
In policy evaluation, when we analyze with real-time and post-revised data, we cannot obtain the same result. In addition of uncertainty of the preliminary data, we experience a large recognition lag.

Report

(5 results)
  • 2016 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2015 Research-status Report
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (22 results)

All 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (4 results) (of which Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 2 results) Presentation (13 results) (of which Int'l Joint Research: 1 results) Book (2 results) Remarks (3 results)

  • [Journal Article] 社会資本整備の厚生効果と地域住民の意識~石垣島と宮古島との比較を通じた検証~2017

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      交通学研究

      Volume: 60 Pages: 175-182

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access
  • [Journal Article] 地域の鉱工業生産指数について2016

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      経済統計研究

      Volume: 43 Pages: 31-52

    • NAID

      40020792750

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report 2015 Research-status Report
  • [Journal Article] 消費税増税における「認知のラグ」の影響2014

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Journal Title

      ニッセイ基礎研究所『基礎研レポート』

      Volume: 1 Pages: 1-24

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Open Access
  • [Journal Article] CPIとGDPデフレーターにおける乖離について -家計消費デフレーターとCPI-2013

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之,矢嶋康次
    • Journal Title

      基礎研レポート

      Volume: 2013年07月12日 Pages: 1-19

    • NAID

      40020113259

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Estimation of the effect on Recognition Lag using Real Time Data; Why do we only have the rushing purchase and reactionary decline due to consumption tax hike in Japan?2016

    • Author(s)
      Komaki Yasuyuki
    • Organizer
      33rd CIRET Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Eigtveds Pakhus, Copenhagen
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-17
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
    • Int'l Joint Research
  • [Presentation] 有効求人倍率と少子高齢化~九州地域の場合~2016

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      金沢大学角間キャンパス(石川県金沢市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-09-07
    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Presentation] 経済データと政策決定~消費税増税,CPIからみた民間経済主体への影響~2016

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      生活経済学会中部部会第2回研究大会
    • Place of Presentation
      愛知学院大学名城公園キャンパス(愛知県,名古屋市)
    • Year and Date
      2016-03-05
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 日本銀行「政策委員大勢見通し」における私的情報2015

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会 2015 年度秋季大会
    • Place of Presentation
      東北大学川内北キャンパス(宮城県,仙台市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-10-24
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 物価統計間の乖離について~GDPデフレーターと消費者物価指数~2015

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      経済統計学会第59回全国研究大会
    • Place of Presentation
      北海学園大学豊平キャンパス(北海道,札幌市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-11
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 私的情報の優位性について~利用可能な公的情報を考慮した検証2015

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      2015年度統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      岡山大学津島キャンパス(岡山県,岡山市)
    • Year and Date
      2015-09-09
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] 政策判断における認知ラグの影響~1997年問題を中心に2014

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Place of Presentation
      山口大学(山口県・山口市)
    • Year and Date
      2014-10-18
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Examination of policy effect using calculated inflation expectation by Inflation-indexed bonds,2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuyuki Komaki
    • Organizer
      34th International Symposium on Forecasting,
    • Place of Presentation
      Rotterdam, Netherland
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-30
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Real time Reliability of Fiscal stimulus–Comparison with USA, UK and Japan-2014

    • Author(s)
      Yasuyuki Komaki
    • Organizer
      SMTDA(Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis)2014 International Conference
    • Place of Presentation
      Lisbon, Portugal.
    • Year and Date
      2014-06-13
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Real time estimate of Fiscal policy

    • Author(s)
      Komaki Yasuyuki
    • Organizer
      The 33nd Annual International Symposium on Forecasting
    • Place of Presentation
      Seoul, South Korea
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] CPIと国内家計最終消費支出デフレーター(HDCD)における乖離について

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      統計関連学会連合大会
    • Place of Presentation
      大阪大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Real time effects of Fiscal stimulus –Comparison with USA, UK and Japan-

    • Author(s)
      Komaki Yasuyuki
    • Organizer
      INFER Workshop (From Economic Crisis Towards Economic Growth: Fiscal and Monetary Policy Instruments)
    • Place of Presentation
      Bucharest University
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] アベノミクスの検証-物価連動債を用いた期待インフレ率の計測

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Organizer
      中国人民大学経済学院セミナー
    • Place of Presentation
      中国人民大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 経済データと政策決定~速報値と確定値の間の不確実性を読み解く2015

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Total Pages
      314
    • Publisher
      日本経済新聞出版社
    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Book] 「第5章 日本の経済は、本当によくなっているのでしょうか――景気の話」,『経済学者に聞いたら、ニュースの本当のところが見えてきた』2013

    • Author(s)
      小巻泰之
    • Publisher
      日本経済出版社
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] リアルタイムデータベース

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/

    • Related Report
      2016 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 日本大学経済学部 小巻泰之 研究室

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/

    • Related Report
      2015 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] Real Time Data Base

    • URL

      http://www.eco.nihon-u.ac.jp/~komaki/RealTimeData-091121.html

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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