The influence for policy making decision and evaluation using Real-Time data and revision data
| Project/Area Number |
25380330
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Economic policy
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| Research Institution | Nihon University |
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Principal Investigator |
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2017-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2016)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥3,770,000 (Direct Cost: ¥2,900,000、Indirect Cost: ¥870,000)
Fiscal Year 2016: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥650,000 (Direct Cost: ¥500,000、Indirect Cost: ¥150,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,040,000 (Direct Cost: ¥800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥240,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
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| Keywords | リアルタイムデータ / リヴィジョンスタディ / 金融財政政策 / 私的情報 / 公開情報 / 認知ラグ / 消費税 / 駆け込み需要 / リアルタイム同時性 / CPIとデフレーター |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
Macro-economic data will be revised, but preliminary figures are paid attention in decision making. Data revision is necessary for a process to reflect true economic situation to statistics, and it is not a problem to judge economic situation by preliminary data if we can predict the direction of revision. However, the data revision cannot be predicted, and the uncertainty of the preliminary data is a problem in decision making.
In policy evaluation, when we analyze with real-time and post-revised data, we cannot obtain the same result. In addition of uncertainty of the preliminary data, we experience a large recognition lag.
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Report
(5 results)
Research Products
(22 results)
