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Exchange rate movements and spillovers: evidence from the dynamic hierarchical factor model

Research Project

Project/Area Number 25380386
Research Category

Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)

Allocation TypeMulti-year Fund
Section一般
Research Field Money/ Finance
Research InstitutionTohoku University (2015)
University of Tsukuba (2013-2014)

Principal Investigator

Nagayasu Jun  東北大学, 経済学研究科(研究院), 教授 (30375422)

Project Period (FY) 2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
Project Status Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
Budget Amount *help
¥4,420,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,400,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,020,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,430,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,100,000、Indirect Cost: ¥330,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Keywords外国為替市場 / 実質実効為替レート / ファクターモデル / ベイズ統計 / ファクター・モデル / 伝播効果 / ダイナミック階層ファクターモデル
Outline of Final Research Achievements

Using the Bayesian factor model, we decompose movements in real effective exchange rates, which can be considered a measure of external competitiveness, into global and country-specific factors. In data from a number of developed and developing countries, we find a particular global trend in these rates, but a substantial proportion of the variation in these rates is found to be country-specific. In addition, consistent with economic theory, this global factor is closely related to a trend in the global interest rate, while country-specific factors to idiosyncratic movements in countries’ own interest rates.

Report

(4 results)
  • 2015 Annual Research Report   Final Research Report ( PDF )
  • 2014 Research-status Report
  • 2013 Research-status Report
  • Research Products

    (6 results)

All 2016 2014 2013 Other

All Journal Article (2 results) (of which Acknowledgement Compliant: 2 results,  Peer Reviewed: 1 results,  Open Access: 1 results) Presentation (2 results) Remarks (2 results)

  • [Journal Article] Commonality and heterogeneity in real effective exchange rates: evidence from developed and developing countries2016

    • Author(s)
      永易淳
    • Journal Title

      MPRA Paper

      Volume: 70078 Pages: 1-29

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
    • Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Journal Article] The forward premium puzzle and the euro2014

    • Author(s)
      永易淳
    • Journal Title

      Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money

      Volume: 32 Pages: 436-451

    • DOI

      10.1016/j.intfin.2014.07.004

    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
    • Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Acknowledgement Compliant
  • [Presentation] Co-movements in Real Effective Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Dynamic Hierarchical Factor Model2014

    • Author(s)
      永易淳
    • Organizer
      日本金融学会
    • Place of Presentation
      慶応義塾大学
    • Year and Date
      2014-05-24
    • Related Report
      2014 Research-status Report
  • [Presentation] Interdependence in real effective exchange rates: evidence from the dynamic hierarchical factor model2013

    • Author(s)
      永易淳
    • Organizer
      日本経済学会
    • Place of Presentation
      神奈川大学
    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report
  • [Remarks] 個人ホームページ

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/nagayasujun/

    • Related Report
      2015 Annual Research Report
  • [Remarks] 永易淳

    • URL

      https://sites.google.com/site/nagayasujun/home

    • Related Report
      2013 Research-status Report

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Published: 2014-07-25   Modified: 2019-07-29  

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