| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed methods to calculate the basic reproduction number and the type-reproduction number in time-heterogeneous environments, and examined the endemic threshold phenomena in the age-structured SIS epidemic model. The early Kermack-McKendrick model was extended to take into account individual heterogeneity and its pandemic threshold theorem was proved. Next we formulated the Kermack-McKendrick reinfection model as a structured population model, and examined its mathematical nature and showed conditions under which subcritical endemic steady states exist. By extending the basic model, we have suggested possibilities that asymptomatic infection and subclinical infection would lead subcritical endemic states. In collaboration with experimental biologists, we developed in vivo virus dynamics models to show quantitatively that cell-to-cell infection has a large impact to the basic reproduction number, and that some virus protein (HIV-1Vpu) had an important role in the HIV-1 pandemic.
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