Mathematical theory of structured population dynamics and its applications to epidemic models
| Project/Area Number |
25400194
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| Research Category |
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
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| Allocation Type | Multi-year Fund |
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| Section | 一般 |
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| Research Field |
Foundations of mathematics/Applied mathematics
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| Research Institution | The University of Tokyo |
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Principal Investigator |
INABA Hisashi 東京大学, 数理(科)学研究科(研究院), 教授 (80282531)
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| Project Period (FY) |
2013-04-01 – 2016-03-31
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| Project Status |
Completed (Fiscal Year 2015)
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| Budget Amount *help |
¥4,940,000 (Direct Cost: ¥3,800,000、Indirect Cost: ¥1,140,000)
Fiscal Year 2015: ¥1,560,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,200,000、Indirect Cost: ¥360,000)
Fiscal Year 2014: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
Fiscal Year 2013: ¥1,690,000 (Direct Cost: ¥1,300,000、Indirect Cost: ¥390,000)
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| Keywords | 感染症数理モデル / 基本再生産数 / 構造化個体群モデル / 閾値現象 / ウィルスダイナミクス / 後退分岐 / ＨＩＶ / 構造化個体群ダイナミクス |
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| Outline of Final Research Achievements |
We developed methods to calculate the basic reproduction number and the type-reproduction number in time-heterogeneous environments, and examined the endemic threshold phenomena in the age-structured SIS epidemic model. The early Kermack-McKendrick model was extended to take into account individual heterogeneity and its pandemic threshold theorem was proved. Next we formulated the Kermack-McKendrick reinfection model as a structured population model, and examined its mathematical nature and showed conditions under which subcritical endemic steady states exist. By extending the basic model, we have suggested possibilities that asymptomatic infection and subclinical infection would lead subcritical endemic states. In collaboration with experimental biologists, we developed in vivo virus dynamics models to show quantitatively that cell-to-cell infection has a large impact to the basic reproduction number, and that some virus protein (HIV-1Vpu) had an important role in the HIV-1 pandemic.
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Report
(4 results)
Research Products
(25 results)
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[Journal Article] Pandemic HIV-1 Vpu overcomes intrinsic herd immunity mediated by tetherin2015
Author(s)
Shingo Iwami, Kei Sato, Satoru Morita, Hisashi Inaba, Tomoko Kobayashi, Junko S. Takeuchi, Yuichi Kimura, Naoko Misawa, Fengrong Ren, Yoh Iwasa, Kazuyuki Aihara & Yoshio Koyanagi
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Journal Title
Scientific Reports
Volume: 5
Issue: 1
Pages: 12256-12256
DOI
NAID
Related Report
Peer Reviewed / Open Access / Int'l Joint Research
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[Presentation] 人口と感染症の数理2014
Author(s)
稲葉寿
Organizer
第317回昭和大学学士会例会
Place of Presentation
昭和大学歯科病院第2臨床講堂
Year and Date
2014-06-28
Related Report
Invited
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